Market Recap — ADP’s 122k private payrolls and a hotter ISM services print reinforced a firmer rates/dollar backdrop, while the EIA’s 8.0m crude draw tightened the oil balance. The Fed Beige Book signaled modest growth and persistent price pressures, adding to inflation sensitivity. The combination pushed front-end and intermediate Treasury yields and the dollar up ($ZN=F, $DX=F), and supported crude futures ($CL=F) strength. Post-close, standout results from Broadcom ($AVGO), CrowdStrike ($CRWD) and Five Below ($FIVE) set up sector dispersion into tomorrow.

Intraday — Morning ADP and the ISM services beat signaled resilience in hiring and services pricing, translating into upward pressure on Treasuries and the dollar ($ZN=F, $DX=F), while the EIA’s larger-than-expected crude draw tightened oil markets and supported crude futures ($CL=F, $RB=F). The Beige Book’s noting of moderate-to-strong price pressures reinforced the narrative of sticky inflation, influencing energy and inflation-sensitive assets ($CL=F, $ZN=F).

After Hours — Earnings drove after-hours moves: Broadcom guided Q3 revenue below some AI revenue expectations, while CrowdStrike raised ARR and announced a 4-for-1 split, Five Below raised its FY guide, C3 AI provided FY2027 revenue targets, PVH trimmed revenue outlook, and ChargePoint beat revenue guidance. Tech and software names ($AVGO, $CRWD) and discretionary names ($FIVE, $PVH) will likely lead tomorrow’s re-pricing and sector rotation.

Our Read — Expect rates and the dollar to remain central to sector leadership; earnings will determine whether AI and retail beats extend rallies or prompt profit-taking. Position for volatility into tomorrow’s follow-through as markets digest guidance versus the now-firmer macro backdrop.

Tomorrow’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map

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Market Recap — The April JOLTS upside pushed rate repricing and pressured duration into the close, supporting moves in Treasury futures and the dollar ($ZN=F, $DX-Y.NYB). Early earnings beats from Victoria’s Secret lifted apparel retail sentiment ($VSXY) during the session. After the bell, Palo Alto and Ulta reported raised guidance and strong beats, while API showed a larger crude draw that tightened oil balances ($PANW, $ULTA, $CL=F).

Intraday — From the open through the close, JOLTS showed job openings jumped to 7.618mn, prompting faster rate repricing that impacted Treasury futures and the dollar ($ZN=F, $DX-Y.NYB), and Victoria’s Secret beat and raised FY26 guidance, supporting retail names into the afternoon ($VSXY).

After Hours — Post-close, Palo Alto reported better-than-expected revenue and raised FY26 revenue and EPS guidance, and Ulta beat and raised EPS guidance while buying back stock, both supporting software and retail sentiment ($PANW, $ULTA); API data showed a 6.8mn bbl crude draw, lifting crude and refined-product futures ($CL=F, $RB=F).

Our Read — Strong labor demand keeps upside pressure on rates and makes growth-sensitive equities more event-driven into tomorrow. Watch EIA inventories and any follow-through in earnings to decide sector tilts.

Tomorrow’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map

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Market Recap — Stocks tracked a mix of deal flow and policy headlines as Reuters scoops dominated newswires. Devon Energy drew a reported ~$8bn offer for Marcellus assets ($DVN), while Liftoff Mobile priced an IPO range backed by Blackstone ($LFTO). After the bell, Yum Brands was reported in exclusive talks to sell Pizza Hut ($YUM) and Berkshire agreed to buy Taylor Morrison ($TMHC). The Commerce Department tightened AI-chip license guidance, spotlighting Nvidia and AMD revenue channels ($NVDA, $AMD).

Intraday — Late-session Reuters reports drove activity: Devon’s Marcellus offer for about 190,000 net acres highlighted portfolio optionality and U.S. gas E&P dynamics ($DVN), and Liftoff Mobile targeted a $3.66bn valuation in its U.S. IPO filing, signaling sponsor-backed issuance flows ($LFTO).

After Hours — Post-close headlines amplified sector dispersion: Yum Brands’ Pizza Hut divestiture talks lifted YUM in extended trading ($YUM), Berkshire’s announced buyout of Taylor Morrison underscored M&A support for homebuilders ($TMHC), and crude rose on Middle East escalation, pressuring energy risk premia ($CL=F).

Our Read — Deal activity plus tightened AI-export rules recalibrate risk between cyclicals and capex-sensitive tech. Nvidia’s Computex keynote and evolving U.S. license enforcement set the primary trade catalysts for tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map

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Washington moved to tighten license requirements for advanced AI chips shipped to China-headquartered firms, a move directly relevant to accelerator makers like $NVDA and $AMD and the semiconductor ETF complex ($SOXX). Reuters also previewed Nvidia’s Computex keynote, which will focus on data-center chips, systems and AI roadmaps ($NVDA). Geopolitical risk pushed crude higher after Israel-Lebanon escalation and Strait of Hormuz concerns, lifting futures and energy-linked plays ($CL=F, $USO). In M&A and corporate moves, Berkshire agreed to buy Taylor Morrison ($TMHC) for $72.50 per share, Yum Brands was reported in exclusive talks to sell Pizza Hut ($YUM), and Devon Energy drew an ~$8bn offer for Marcellus assets ($DVN). Private-equity–backed Liftoff Mobile targeted a U.S. IPO valuation in the ~$3.66bn range ($LFTO, $BX). Tesla withdrew its termination notice on a graphite supply deal with Syrah, easing a battery-supply overhang for $TSLA.

Our Read —

Expect volatile tape around AI supply-chain headlines and Nvidia’s keynote, with chips sensitive to export-rule headlines. Energy names and oil futures should react to any weekend escalation updates, while select M&A and sponsor-backed IPO stories may support related equities.

Monday’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map

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Market Recap — The Treasury sold $70.0 bn of 5-year notes at 4.182%, leaving a small 0.10 bp tail and a 2.34 bid-to-cover that pressured intermediate yields ($ZF=F, $IEI). That print supported higher Treasury yields intraday and weighed on duration-sensitive equities. After the close a slate of tech and semiconductor reports — led by cloud software and AI-data-center names — dominated tape into the evening ($CRM, $SNOW).

Intraday — At 13:00 ET the $70.0 bn 5-year auction came through with a 4.182% high yield, above the prior 3.955% and roughly in line with recent demand metrics, nudging 5-year futures and intermediate ETFs wider ($ZF=F, $IEI). Markets digested the higher term premium while equities traded around that rates impulse into the close.

After Hours — Salesforce reported revenue of $11.13 bn and non-GAAP EPS $3.88 with FY revenue guidance $45.90–46.20 bn, Snowflake posted $1.39 bn revenue and raised FY product revenue to $5.84 bn, Marvell printed $2.418 bn revenue and gave Q2 guide for $2.700 bn, and HP reported $14.40 bn revenue and non-GAAP EPS $0.86; these releases set the tone for sector re-pricing ($CRM, $SNOW, $MRVL, $HPQ).

Our Read — Higher intermediate yields increase sensitivity for growth and long-duration software multiples, making cloud earnings reactions a clear short-term driver. Watch AI semiconductor guidance and cloud revenue beats/raises to steer sector positioning into tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

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Market Recap — Stocks faded as front-end yields repriced after a heavy 2-year auction ($ZT=F) and consumer confidence marginally surprised, keeping growth-risk debate alive ($ES=F). FHFA housing data and elevated mortgage rates weighed on rate-sensitive themes ($ZN=F). Auto-parts earnings and an AI chip supply report added sector nuance, while oil supply moves from the SPR drew energy attention ($AZO) ($CL=F).

Intraday — Morning headlines included AutoZone’s mixed print with EPS beat and slightly softer revenue ($AZO), a Conference Board confidence beat that lifted expectations modestly ($ES=F), and FHFA home-price signs amid higher mortgage rates that pressured housing sensitivity ($ZN=F). A USD-linked reaction centered on front-end Treasury dynamics into the 2-year auction, while Reuters SPR cargo flow news supported crude repricing ($CL=F).

After Hours — Zscaler reported stronger-than-expected Q3 revenue and EPS but gave softer Q4 revenue guidance, setting a cloud/software tone into tomorrow ($ZS). Reuters also flagged Qualcomm’s reported AI chip deal, and Dell agreed to sell Nvidia Blackwell systems to IREN for a large AI deployment, highlighting direct GPU demand ($QCOM) ($NVDA). Trade-policy commentary on potential tariff exclusions and FX sensitivity arrived late, adding another cross-market input ($CNH=X).

Our Read — Front-end yields are the primary market control; expect headline-sensitive Treasury flows to amplify equity moves tomorrow. Watch AI hardware and cloud earnings for directional tech leadership and dispersion.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Short $HPQ — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

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1/2 Long $AZO — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If domestic same-store sales growth >= 4.0% and gross margin change is above -50 bp, go long $AZO at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

AutoZone reports fiscal Q3 2026 before the May 26 open, with key swing factors including domestic same-store sales and gross margin. A domestic comp >= 4.0% would improve on the prior 3.4% domestic comp, and a margin outcome better than -50 bp would reduce fears of cost/mix pressure. That combination can support a tactical upside move in $AZO over the following 1–3 sessions.

Risk: Mark Stale if comp < 4.0% or gross margin change <= -50 bp. • Valid until 2026-06-01 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary earnings setup; comp and margin must align to avoid mixed-signal trading.

2/2 Long $BOX — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If revenue >= $305 mn and RPO >= $1.7 bn, go long $BOX at next regular-session open and hold next 1–3 sessions.

Box reports Q1 FY2027 after the May 26 close, with focus on revenue growth, billings/RPO durability, and Box AI adoption signals. A revenue print clearing $305 mn alongside RPO at/above $1.7 bn would support a “backlog plus growth” message and can drive multi-session follow-through in smaller-cap software sentiment. Express it directly via $BOX for a 1–3 session tactical hold after the release.

Risk: Mark Stale if either revenue < $305 mn or RPO < $1.7 bn. • Valid until 2026-06-01 close (ET)

Setup note: Trigger is numeric, but RPO optics can be noisy and can dominate interpretation.

Market Recap — U.S. jobs and stronger flash PMI pushed front-end and nominal yields higher, lifting Treasury futures ($ZN=F) and nudging the dollar ($DX=F). Housing starts and permits mixed, and a larger-than-usual TIPS reopening printed a rich real yield that pressured real-rate trades ($TIP). Natural-gas storage builds were constructive for prompt gas futures ($NG=F) but were secondary to macro-driven rates moves. The session closed with beaten-but-positive retail and software prints rolling into the post-close slate.

Intraday — Morning initial jobless claims fell while S&P Global’s flash manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, sending real- and nominal-rate proxies firmer and weighing on rate-sensitive areas ($ZT=F, $ZN=F). April housing starts and permits showed mixed momentum, tempering homebuilder expectations even as the data supported higher mortgage-rate sensitivity ($ITB, $XHB).

After Hours — Post-close earnings included stronger-than-expected prints from Ross ($ROST) and Deckers ($DECK) and solid subscription growth from Workday ($WDAY), with Zoom ($ZM) also reporting modest revenue upside and an added buyback; these releases set up sector-specific rotations into tomorrow. Companies announcing larger buybacks or raised guidance lifted discretionary and software reaction trades while leaving broader market direction tied to how yields behave into the overnight session.

Our Read — Expect headlines from earnings to drive stock-level dispersion while Treasury repricing controls broader beta. Trade tomorrow with a yield-sensitive overlay and prioritize names reporting after close for follow-through.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $GSL — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue >= 190 USD mn, go long $GSL at next regular-session open; hold by day-1 close.

Global Ship Lease reports Q1 results before the open with a 10:30 ET call; consensus revenue is $182.95mn and prior-quarter revenue was $190.95mn. A revenue print at or above $190mn would indicate stronger-than-expected charter revenue versus the estimate and can drive a one-day repricing in a rate-sensitive containership lessor, especially if investors focus on contracted revenue and renewal-rate implications.

Risk: No trade if Q1 revenue < 190 USD mn. • Valid until 2026-05-28 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary earnings trigger is clear, but shipping equities can gap both ways on call commentary.

2/3 Long $BJ — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue >= 5.5 USD bn, go long $BJ at next regular-session open; hold by day-1 close.

BJ’s reports Q1 FY2026 before the open with an 08:30 ET call; consensus revenue is $5.43bn and prior-year Q1 revenue was $5.15bn. A revenue print of at least $5.5bn would be a clear beat versus consensus and can drive a near-term upside move as investors lean into value/grocery share-gain narratives and watch for confirmation via comparable-club sales ex-gas and membership-fee income.

Risk: No trade if Q1 revenue < 5.5 USD bn. • Valid until 2026-05-28 close (ET)

Setup note: Revenue-only trigger is clean, but margins and membership metrics can dominate the tape.

3/3 Long $BAH — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If revenue >= 2.9 USD bn, go long $BAH at next regular-session open; hold by day-1 close.

Booz Allen hosts its Q4/FY2026 earnings call at 08:00 ET, with revenue consensus at $2.87bn (and EPS around $1.32–$1.34). A revenue print at or above $2.9bn would represent a clean beat and can support a one-day move higher as investors extrapolate federal-services demand, backlog/book-to-bill, and AI/cyber award momentum into near-term multiple and estimate support.

Risk: No trade if revenue < 2.9 USD bn. • Valid until 2026-05-28 close (ET)

Setup note: Government-services stocks can fade quickly if backlog or margin commentary disappoints despite revenue.

Market Recap — The 20-year auction cleared at a 5.122% high yield, lifting long-end rates and pressuring duration-sensitive names ($ZB=F, $ZN=F). A larger-than-expected crude draw and high refinery utilization tightened prompt oil balances, boosting oil futures and energy exposure ($CL=F, $RB=F). Fed minutes showing concern about stickier inflation kept front-end caution and supported the dollar ($DX=F, $TLT). After-hours earnings from NVIDIA and Intuit then dominated sentiment into the close ($NVDA, $INTU).

Intraday — From 08:00–16:00 ET, the Treasury sold USD 16bn of 20-year paper at a 5.122% high yield, lifting long-end rates and pressuring long-duration ETFs ($ZB=F, $TLT); FOMC minutes signaled participants’ inflation concerns, reinforcing cautious rate positioning and a firmer dollar ($ZN=F, $DX=F). The EIA weekly report showed a 7.86mn bbl crude draw and 91.6% refinery utilization, which tightened crude/product balances and pushed oil futures higher ($CL=F, $HO=F).

After Hours — Post-close NVIDIA reported blowout revenue and raised Q2 guidance with a large buyback, sending semiconductor futures higher and re-pricing AI expectations ($NVDA, $SOXX); Intuit missed revenue, trimmed TurboTax guidance and announced a 17% workforce cut, introducing software weakness and restructuring risk ($INTU, $TLT). e.l.f. Beauty beat on the quarter but guided below consensus, leaving retail growth questions into tomorrow ($ELF, $CL=F).

Our Read — The market enters tomorrow focused on semiconductor leadership vs. rate-driven pressure on growth; expect volatility as traders weigh NVDA momentum against higher long-term yields. Position for semiconductor follow-through while monitoring Treasury curve moves and oil-driven cost signals.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $ROST — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue >= USD 5.6 bn AND EPS >= USD 1.65, go long into by day-1 close.

Ross Stores reports Q1 FY2026 after the close with investor focus on comps, gross margin, inventory, and tariff exposure. A revenue print at or above USD 5.6 bn alongside EPS at or above USD 1.65 would signal resilient traffic and profitability against a range of consensus expectations, potentially driving a clean next-day upside reaction and brief follow-through as the market updates the off-price demand narrative.

Risk: Mark stale if EPS < USD 1.65. • Valid until 2026-05-27 close (ET)

Setup note: Clean numeric trigger, but comps and tariff commentary may dominate even on a beat.

2/3 Long $WMT — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If U.S. comparable sales >= 4.0%, go long $WMT at next regular-session open; hold into by day-1 close.

Walmart’s Q1 print is a high-signal read on U.S. consumer demand and retail pricing. A U.S. comp-sales result at or above 4% would support a market-share/resilience narrative relative to expectations, which can drive a next-day rerating. The trade is anchored to a single numeric operational metric, with a simple safeguard if EPS comes in at or below USD 0.64 (cost/mix pressure).

Risk: Mark stale if EPS is <= USD 0.64. • Valid until 2026-05-27 close (ET)

Setup note: Single metric trigger is clean, but margin commentary can overwhelm comps in the first day.

3/3 Long $TTWO — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If FY2027 revenue guidance >= USD 9.0 bn or Q4 revenue >= USD 1.6 bn, go long into by day-1 close.

Take-Two reports Q4/FY2026 after the close with attention on net bookings and forward guidance tied to major title timing/monetization expectations. A FY2027 revenue guide at or above USD 9.0 bn (or a Q4 revenue print at/above USD 1.6 bn) would be a concrete signal of a stronger ramp than currently embedded in the wide EPS/revenue expectation range, supporting a next-day repricing.

Risk: Mark stale if neither FY2027 guidance nor Q4 revenue meets the trigger. • Valid until 2026-05-27 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary catalyst, but thresholds rely on management guidance; basis differences can muddy headline comparisons.

Market Recap — U.S. pending-home sales unexpectedly rose, lifting housing-sensitive names and supporting homebuilder/DIY proxies ($XHB) while exchange earnings cheered European market-structure plays ($ENX.PA). Intraday regulatory moves — an SEC offering/reporting proposal and a CFTC suit against Minnesota — added policy uncertainty alongside a DOJ indictment of container makers ($2039.HK). The mix kept the tape range-bound into the close, with sector rotation between duration-sensitive housing names and quality cyclicals. After-hours strength in electronic-test equipment after Keysight’s beat capped the day and fed upside risk into tomorrow.

Intraday — Morning data showed the Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.4% m/m, bolstering housing-equity sentiment ($XHB) and nudging duration-sensitive names while the SEC’s proposed offering/reporting reforms highlighted capital-markets process changes; the DOJ indictment of container manufacturers added legal/supply-chain risk for related industrials ($2039.HK) and kept sector flows choppy.

After Hours — Keysight reported Q2 revenue of $1.72bn, strong orders and raised FY outlook, driving gains in electronic-test and semiconductor-equipment proxies ($KEYS) while broader market focus shifted to earnings momentum and positioning into tomorrow; macro/regulatory headlines remained in the background alongside housing strength that referenced Treasury-sensitive duration proxies ($ZN=F).

Our Read — Housing strength plus policy headlines set a cautious, data-driven backdrop into tomorrow’s earnings cluster. Expect stocks linked to housing and beaten-up industrials to trade on earnings headlines and guidance momentum.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $NVDA — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If revenue >= 80.0 USD bn AND EPS >= 1.9 USD/share, go long next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

NVIDIA reports Q1 FY2027 after the close with listed consensus EPS of USD 1.77 and revenue of USD 78.40bn. A beat to at least USD 80.0bn revenue and USD 1.9 EPS would be a clean, numeric upside surprise setup, likely reinforcing AI-accelerator demand expectations. Tactically, that kind of result often drives multi-session follow-through in mega-cap semis as positioning adjusts to the new guideposts.

Risk: If either threshold is not met, mark Stale. • Valid until 2026-05-22 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary earnings trigger with explicit EPS/revenue thresholds; clean stale condition if unmet.

2/3 Long $ADI — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If revenue >= 3.6 USD bn AND EPS >= 3.0 USD/share, go long at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Analog Devices reports Q2 FY2026 before the open with consensus EPS of USD 2.85 and revenue of USD 3.49bn. A print at or above USD 3.0 EPS and USD 3.6bn revenue would clear both consensus and the cited upper-end revenue threshold, signaling stronger demand across key end-markets (industrial, communications, automotive). That combination can catalyze multi-session repricing in analog semis, particularly if it points to improving order trends into Q3.

Risk: If either threshold is not met, mark Stale. • Valid until 2026-05-22 close (ET)

Setup note: Good numeric beat setup; still sensitive to Q3 guide details not captured in trigger.

3/3 Short $TGT — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If EPS <= 1.2 USD/share OR revenue <= 24.0 USD bn, short at next regular-session open; cover by day-1 close.

Target reports Q1 before the open with consensus EPS of USD 1.35 and revenue of USD 24.31bn, with attention on comps, discretionary mix, margin, and inventory/shrink. An EPS print at or below USD 1.2 or revenue at or below USD 24.0bn would be a clear downside miss versus listed expectations. In a sentiment-sensitive retail week, that kind of negative surprise often drives an immediate, tradeable gap-and-follow-through over the first session.

Risk: If both EPS and revenue are above those levels, mark Stale. • Valid until 2026-05-21 close (ET)

Setup note: Downside-trigger trade is clean; upside scenario invalidates quickly, limiting follow-through edge.

Market Recap — The NextEra/Dominion all-stock merger announcement drove utility and M&A positioning, led by NextEra ($NEE) and sector peers; housing sentiment improved on a stronger NAHB reading that links to homebuilder ETFs ($XHB). Late policy and commodity headlines — a 9.9 mn bbl SPR draw and a 30-day waiver on Russian seaborne oil — tightened oil balances and lifted crude futures ($CL=F). Earnings and capital-return actions also surfaced after the close with XP’s ($XP) buyback and dividend boosting brokerage-capital-return narrative.

Intraday — Early trading reacted to the definitive NextEra/Dominion merger announcement, which specified the exchange ratio and ownership split and pressured/supported regulated-utility positioning around NextEra ($NEE) and Dominion proxies; a stronger-than-expected May NAHB HMI lifted housing-linked ETFs ($XHB) while Cognizant’s ($CTSH) doubled buyback raise signaled incremental capital return into the IT services group.

After Hours — Post-close, XP’s ($XP) quarter showed solid client-assets and announced a R$1.0bn buyback plus R$500mn dividend, putting pressure on wealth-platform peers; Reuters’ report that the SEC is preparing a tokenized-equity plan touched crypto-brokerage equities such as Coinbase ($COIN) and Robinhood ($HOOD). Commodity and policy flow — a record 9.9 mn bbl SPR draw and a 30-day waiver for Russian seaborne oil — kept crude futures ($CL=F) and oil ETFs supported into the evening.

Our Read — Today mixed corporate actions, housing sentiment, and energy-policy shocks reset relative positioning into tomorrow’s tokenization headlines and housing prints. Expect flows to focus on regulatory reaction in crypto-brokerage names and oil-sensitive cyclicals.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/2 Long $HD — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If EPS >= 3.42 AND revenue >= 41.60 bn, go long $HD by day-1 close; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Home Depot reports Q1 results before market open with consensus at EPS of 3.42 and revenue of 41.60 bn. A clean beat on both top and bottom line can shift the near-term narrative on home-improvement demand amid mortgage-rate and affordability concerns. If the company clears both thresholds, the stock can see follow-through buying over the next few sessions.

Risk: Invalidate if EPS < 3.42 or revenue < 41.60 bn. • Valid until 2026-05-25 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary catalyst with explicit thresholds; main risk is a mixed print that whipsaws.

2/2 Long $XP — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: Enter $XP at next regular-session open; hold within 5 trading days.

XP reported Q1 results alongside a new R$1.0 bn share repurchase authorization and a R$500 mn dividend payable June 18, 2026. The capital-return announcement can provide near-term support as investors handicap follow-through buying and a shareholder-friendly posture. Tactically, this can drive multi-session momentum if the market focuses on capital return alongside reported profitability.

Risk: Exit if $XP closes lower by day-1 close. • Valid until 2026-05-25 close (ET)

Setup note: Capital-return support is clear, but near-term price reaction can still hinge on broader risk tone.

Over the Weekend

Markets entered the weekend with a clear oil-rates shock after UAE and Gulf drone events lifted crude and risk premia ($CL=F). Treasury futures and yields repriced sharply on inflation and oil follow-through, sending front-end and belly rates to one-year highs ($ZN=F). The U.S. Treasury let a Russian seaborne-oil sanctions waiver lapse, adding seaborne supply uncertainty that supported Brent ($BZ=F). Shipping disruptions widened with carriers suspending Cuba bookings amid broader sanctions compliance risk (HLAG.DE). A large utility M&A report surfaced, with NextEra discussions for Dominion valuation and stock consideration weighing on U.S. utilities ($NEE). Australia ordered divestment of certain Northern Minerals shareholders, underscoring rare-earths strategic-policy risk (NTU.AX).

Our Read

Monday’s open should trade around higher real-rates and a firmer oil complex, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors ($ZN=F, $CL=F). Watch energy and utility movers—M&A and issuance dynamics could amplify moves ($NEE).

Monday’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/2 Long $BIDU — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue is >=5% above consensus pre-open, go long $BIDU by day-1 close; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Baidu reports Q1 results before the U.S. open with investors focused on AI cloud growth, online marketing resilience, and margin/capex implications. A revenue beat of at least 5% versus consensus would be a clean, numeric confirmation that AI/cloud momentum is outweighing any ad softness, which can re-rate the stock quickly post-print. Express the upside surprise through $BIDU over the next few sessions.

Risk: Mark Stale if revenue is not >=5% above consensus. • Valid until 2026-05-22 close (ET)

Setup note: Clean numeric trigger, but ADR reaction can be sentiment-driven around AI commentary.

2/2 Short $XHB — Intraday (0–1d) • Macro

Plan: If May NAHB HMI <=32 at 10:00 ET, short $XHB by day-1 close; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Homebuilder sentiment is the direct near-term macro input for builder equities, and the prior HMI already fell to 34 alongside weak buyer traffic. With mortgage-rate backdrop tightening recently, a downside sentiment surprise (<=32) would be a fresh, numeric signal of demand pressure and could prompt a near-term derating in builders. Express the downside via the liquid homebuilder ETF $XHB.

Risk: Mark Stale if HMI prints above 32. • Valid until 2026-05-22 close (ET)

Setup note: Macro-to-ETF link is clear, but single print can be noisy versus rates moves.

Market Recap — A jump in April import prices and a solid retail-sales print pushed inflation and growth debates center stage, driving Treasury moves and a stronger dollar ($DX=F) into the close while futures faded ($ES=F). Initial jobless claims rose above expectations, adding a mild labor cooling signal that pressured rate repricing ($ZN=F). A Fed-board resignation added policy uncertainty late in the session. Cerebras’s hot IPO and a smaller-than-discussed Boeing order punctuated risk-flow into selected names ($CBRS) and industrials ($BA).

Intraday — Morning data packs: April retail sales rose 0.5% m/m (USD 757.1bn) and import prices surged 1.9% m/m, with fuel driving gains, while initial claims increased to 211k and business inventories climbed 0.9% m/m; these prints weighed on equities and pushed Treasury futures and the dollar higher ($ZN=F, $DX=F). Cerebras debuted at a large first-trade premium after pricing its IPO, and Boeing reacted to reports China agreed to buy 200 jets, not the earlier 500-discussions ($CBRS, $BA). Natural-gas storage injection tracked expectations, tempering energy-price reaction ($NG=F, $CL=F).

After Hours — Applied Materials reported a beat and raised guidance, with Q2 revenue USD 7.91bn and Q3 revenue guided to USD 8.95bn ±0.50bn, shifting semiconductor-equipment sentiment after the close ($AMAT). Bloomberg/Reuters reported a USD 6.0mn SEC civil-settlement tied to Gautam Adani, reducing legal overhang subject to court approval and touching Adani-listed names ($ADANIENT.NS, $ADANIGREEN.NS).

Our Read — The import-price surprise keeps upside risk to inflation expectations and Treasury volatility heading into tomorrow. Watch semicap results for capex confirmation and potential directional follow-through in cyclical and rates-sensitive positioning.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $RBC — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If revenue >= USD 510mn AND adjusted gross margin >= 45%, go long $RBC by day-1 close and hold next 1–3 sessions.

RBC Bearings reports fiscal Q4 with consensus for higher EPS and revenue, and prior quarter showed strong Aerospace/Defense growth alongside a 45.1% adjusted gross margin. A print with revenue at or above USD 510mn and adjusted gross margin at or above 45% would validate continued high-margin execution and demand resilience, supporting a near-term re-rating and multi-session follow-through in the stock.

Risk: If either threshold is missed, no position. • Valid until 2026-05-21 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary earnings trigger is clean, but reaction may hinge on backlog and outlook detail.

2/3 Long $HTHT — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue >= CNY 5.8bn OR M&F revenue growth >= 20%, go long $HTHT by day-1 close and hold next 1–3 sessions.

H World Group reports Q1 with consensus for higher EPS and lower revenue versus the prior year, making the top-line and mix particularly important. Revenue at or above CNY 5.8bn would beat expectations, while M&F revenue growth above 20% would reinforce the asset-light margin thesis. Either outcome can drive a near-term upside repricing in the ADR via improved China travel/services demand signals.

Risk: If both thresholds are missed, no position. • Valid until 2026-05-21 close (ET)

Setup note: ADR sensitivity to China risk can overwhelm company-specific beats over short windows.

3/3 Long $AMAT — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: Event already reported; enter long at next regular-session open and hold through next 1–3 sessions.

Applied Materials reported fiscal Q2 revenue and EPS above consensus and guided Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS above estimates, reinforcing a near-term wafer-fab equipment demand upswing. That combination often drives multi-session follow-through as investors re-rate near-term earnings power and capex visibility across the semi-equipment complex, with AMAT a direct, liquid way to express the upside read-through.

Risk: If AMAT closes down on the first session after results. • Valid until 2026-05-21 close (ET)

Setup note: Catalyst is fresh and numeric, but follow-through can fade if semis risk-off.

Market Recap — PPI surprised to the upside and crude draws tightened energy balances, pushing rates and cyclical risk wider. April PPI final demand printed +1.4% m/m and +6.0% y/y while the EIA showed a 4.3mn bbl crude draw, tilting oil tighter ($ZN=F, $CL=F). The Treasury sold $25bn 30-year paper at a 5.046% high yield with a 2.30 bid-to-cover, amplifying long-end repricing ($ZB=F). The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, adding policy uncertainty into the inflation backdrop ($DX=F).

Intraday — Between 08:00–16:00 ET, the PPI shock and sizable EIA draws lifted real-rate sensitivity, pressuring stocks as long-dated supply met weaker demand in the auction; the 30-year yield print and bid-to-cover reinforced selling into duration ($ZN=F, $ZB=F). Energy futures reacted to the larger-than-expected crude and gasoline draws, tightening prompt balances and supporting oil-linked names ($CL=F, $RB=F). The Fed-chair confirmation compounded the move by increasing uncertainty about the policy response to higher inflation prints ($DX=F).

After Hours — Corporate results dominated 16:00–20:00 ET flows: Cisco beat and raised FY26 revenue and AI infrastructure targets, a positive for networking capex reads ($CSCO) while EquipmentShare posted strong revenue and raised guidance, signaling resilient rental demand ($EQPT). StubHub delivered solid top-line growth and reiterated FY26 outlook, and Doximity guided FY27 below Street expectations, a modest late-session sector rotation into travel and out of healthcare software ($STUB, $DOCS).

Our Read — Hot PPI plus a soft 30-year auction puts policy expectations and long-end yields front-and-center into tomorrow’s open. Watch Cisco follow-through on AI orders and Fed-watch positioning for intraday directional edges.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $AMAT — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If reported fiscal Q2 revenue is >= $7.8 bn, go long at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Applied Materials reports fiscal Q2 after the close, with consensus revenue around $7.68–$7.69 bn. A print at or above $7.8 bn would be a clean, numeric upside surprise that can re-accelerate near-term positioning in semicap on improved demand/backlog confidence (and potentially supportive AI memory/logic commentary), often carrying through for multiple sessions post-earnings.

Risk: Trade is invalid if reported revenue is below $7.8 bn. • Valid until 2026-05-20 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary earnings trigger is clean; outcome risk is concentrated into one report.

2/3 Short $DOCS — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: Event already reported; short at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Doximity reported adjusted EPS of $0.26 vs $0.28 expected and guided FY27 revenue to $664–676 mn, below the $697.4 mn FactSet consensus cited. A below-consensus forward revenue guide is a classic near-term de-risking catalyst for software multiples, and the setup favors downside continuation over the next few sessions if sellers control the first session.

Risk: Exit if $DOCS closes up on the first regular session. • Valid until 2026-05-20 close (ET)

Setup note: Guidance short is straightforward, but magnitude of reset vs expectations can be noisy.

3/3 Long $CSCO — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: Event already reported; go long at next regular-session open; hold next 1–5 trading days.

Cisco reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $15.8 bn (up 12% y/y), raised FY26 revenue guidance to $62.8–$63.0 bn, and lifted its FY26 AI infrastructure order target to $9 bn with strong order growth metrics. That combination is a clear positive demand signal for networking tied to AI capex, which often supports multi-session follow-through when guidance is moving up.

Risk: Exit if $CSCO closes down by day-1 close. • Valid until 2026-05-20 close (ET)

Setup note: Catalyst is strong, but follow-through depends on market’s appetite for AI-networking exposure.

Market Recap — U.S. CPI surprised hotter, lifting the dollar and steepening the curve ($DX=F, $ZN=F). A mildly tailed 10-year auction reinforced higher term-premium and pressured duration-sensitive equities ($ZB=F, $ZN=F). EIA’s STEO flagged large Middle East shut-ins and higher Brent, adding energy upside risk ($CL=F, $BZ=F). After the close, API reported a crude draw with a gasoline build, leaving inventories and refinery balances in focus ($CL=F, $RB=F).

Intraday — Morning CPI (April headline and core prints) pushed front-end and long-end yields higher and supported the dollar, amplifying equity multiple compression and volatility ($DX=F, $ZN=F). Midday EIA STEO tightened the oil balance and raised near-term Brent forecasts, which coincided with the 10-year auction that tailed slightly and reinforced rate repricing ($CL=F, $ZN=F).

After Hours — API’s weekly release showed a 2.2m bbl crude draw and a 0.5m bbl gasoline build, nudging crude prices and refining spreads into the close ($CL=F, $RB=F). Market attention will pivot to the official EIA inventory print and any follow-through in energy and rate-sensitive names ($HO=F, $CL=F).

Our Read — Expect continued cross-asset sensitivity to official oil inventories and Treasury term-premium moves tomorrow. Position for volatile reads: energy names on upside risk and cyclicals that reprice on higher yields.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $CSCO — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If adjusted EPS >= 1.08 and revenue >= 15.8 USD bn, go long $CSCO after-hours; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Cisco reports fiscal Q3 after the close with consensus at adjusted EPS 1.03 and revenue 15.55 bn. A beat to at least 1.08 EPS and 15.8 bn revenue would be a clear demand/margin confirmation into a tape expecting an ~8% move by Friday. With shares near record highs, the market likely requires a clean beat for follow-through over the next few sessions.

Risk: Exit if $CSCO closes down on the first session after earnings. • Valid until 2026-05-19 close (ET)

Setup note: High expectations into the print raise the bar; downside can be sharp on any miss.

2/3 Long $XLE — Tactical (1–5d) • Commodity

Plan: If EIA crude inventories are <= -3.0 mn bbl, buy $XLE by day-1 close; hold next 1–3 sessions.

EIA weekly petroleum data at 10:30 ET can reset the near-term oil-and-energy tape. With API showing a 2.20 mn bbl crude draw, an official EIA draw of at least 3.0 mn bbl would confirm tighter balances than API and can support crude-linked cash flows and sector sentiment. Using $XLE keeps the expression liquid while targeting potential multi-session follow-through.

Risk: Do not hold if EIA crude draw is smaller than -3.0 mn bbl. • Valid until 2026-05-19 close (ET)

Setup note: Sector ETF is a blunt proxy; product-stock details can dilute the crude-only signal.

3/3 Long $GLBE — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If EPS >= 0.22 and revenue >= 260 USD mn, buy $GLBE at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Global-e reports Q1 before the open with consensus EPS 0.18 and revenue 250.78 mn. A print of at least 0.22 EPS and 260 mn revenue would signal upside to the core cross-border commerce model (GMV/take rate/EBITDA sensitivity) and can re-rate a small-cap growth name over multiple sessions. After-hours strength was noted into the report, so confirmation matters.

Risk: Exit if $GLBE closes lower on the first session after results. • Valid until 2026-05-19 close (ET)

Setup note: Small-cap growth reactions can be noisy; follow-through depends on guidance alongside the beat.

Market Recap — Stocks lagged as a softer-than-expected 3-year Treasury auction pushed short/intermediate yields higher and the market digested large DOE SPR loan awards, which added near-term crude supply relief; Circle’s strong USDC metrics and several corporate reports printed after the close. The auction’s tailed when-issued level and below-average bid-to-cover pressured Treasury futures and duration ETFs ($ZT=F, $TLT). The SPR contracts and Reuters coverage pressured crude futures and energy ETFs ($CL=F, $USO). Post-close Fed confirmation progress added a political risk overlay tied to rate-path expectations ($DXY, $IEF).

Intraday — In 08:00–16:00 trading Circle reported sizable Q1 revenue, USDC circulation growth and higher adjusted EBITDA, while the Treasury sold $58bn of 3-year notes at 3.965% that tailed when-issued and posted a 2.54x bid-to-cover, a print that pushed yields and futures wider ($CRCL, $ZT=F). Dealers took a larger-than-normal portion and indirects remained dominant, a mix that pressured intermediate-duration ETFs and influenced equity sentiment into the close ($IEF, $TLT).

After Hours — Between 16:00–20:00 the DOE awarded contracts to loan 53.3mn SPR barrels, signaling material near-term supply relief and pressuring crude benchmarks and oil ETFs ($CL=F, $USO). A cluster of earnings hit including Hims & Hers raising FY revenue guide, ZoomInfo cutting its full-year revenue midpoint, and Archer reporting liquidity and certification progress, creating mixed sector-specific reactions in consumer and software names ($HIMS, $GTM, $ACHR). Late procedural Senate clearance for the Fed chair nominee added a policy-sensitive headline that tied back to rate and dollar positioning ($DXY, $TLT).

Our Read — Expect front-end rates and dollar positioning to lead flows into tomorrow’s session as markets price Fed leadership odds and auction footprints. Trade ideas should focus on rate-sensitive sectors and momentum around energy supply news.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $NXT — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If after-hours revenue >= USD 850 mn AND EPS >= USD 0.90, buy next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Nextpower reports fiscal Q4 after the close May 12. A print above the cited thresholds (revenue >= USD 850 mn and EPS >= USD 0.90) would represent a clear beat versus the previewed consensus range and can drive near-term re-rating for a solar tracker name via backlog/guidance optimism and margin confidence, often extending beyond one session.

Risk: Exit if $NXT closes lower on the first session after entry. • Valid until 2026-05-18 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary catalyst with clean numeric trigger; guidance commentary can still dominate reaction.

2/3 Long $ONON — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If pre-open EPS >= USD 0.40 AND revenue >= USD 1.05 bn, buy $ONON at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

On Holding reports Q1 before the open May 12 with consensus EPS USD 0.35 on revenue USD 1.03 bn. A beat above the specified thresholds can reinforce the premium-growth narrative via DTC/wholesale momentum and margin resilience, supporting near-term multiple expansion. This setup aims to capture the typical post-earnings continuation over the next few sessions.

Risk: Exit if $ONON closes lower on the first session after entry. • Valid until 2026-05-18 close (ET)

Setup note: Beat must be accompanied by acceptable FY2026 revenue guidance; outlook can override the quarter.

3/3 Long $ARMK — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If pre-open EPS >= USD 0.52 AND revenue >= USD 4.85 bn, buy $ARMK at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Aramark reports fiscal Q2 before the open May 12 with consensus EPS USD 0.47 on revenue USD 4.75 bn. A beat above the thresholds would signal stronger operating leverage and pricing/pass-through versus wage and food-cost inflation, often supporting a multi-session re-rating. The near-term catalyst is the earnings release plus any FY2026 guidance implications.

Risk: Exit if $ARMK closes lower on the first session after entry. • Valid until 2026-05-18 close (ET)

Setup note: Results can be overshadowed by FY2026 guidance; margin commentary is key to follow-through.

Strained Strait of Hormuz flows and stalled U.S.-Iran talks pushed Brent higher ($BZ=F) and WTI ($CL=F) into a fresh risk-premium regime. Saudi Aramco’s Q1 beat and CEO comments about roughly 1bn barrels lost over two months reinforced the supply-tightness narrative and higher realized revenues ($BZ=F). Reuters flagged China’s April crude and refined product inflows at multi-year lows, adding to global availability concerns ($CL=F). Iran’s proposal to pause sanctions and assert Hormuz control was reported, while Tehran denied an oil leak near Kharg Island; neither development fully eased supply worries. European carriers warned of potential jet-fuel shortages and Swiss Air noted about six weeks of coverage, highlighting refining/transport stress. Cross-asset moves showed S&P futures and Nasdaq futures slipping while the dollar firmed amid higher oil and geopolitical uncertainty.

Our Read —

Monday’s open trades into energy and commodity-sensitive cyclicals, with the dollar and futures acting as key risk barometers ($ES=F, $DX-Y.NYB). Expect headline-driven intraday swings around any Iran/Hormuz updates and oil-price driven sector leadership.

Monday’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $HIMS — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: After-hours May 11: go long $HIMS if revenue >= USD 625mn; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Hims & Hers reports Q1 after the close May 11 with revenue consensus around USD 616.9mn. A print at or above USD 625mn would be a clear top-line beat versus the cited expectations and should support the growth multiple into the next few sessions. Use $HIMS tactically for post-earnings momentum tied to revenue/subscriber execution.

Risk: If revenue <= USD 600mn, do not enter. • Valid until 2026-05-15 22:44 ET

Setup note: Trigger is numeric and clean, but GLP-1/regulatory commentary can dominate tape reaction.

2/3 Long $CEG — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: Before open May 11: go long $CEG if revenue >= USD 8.8bn; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Constellation Energy reports Q1 before the open May 11 with revenue consensus near USD 8.46bn. A revenue print above USD 8.8bn would be a clear beat versus the cited expectation and could reinforce the clean-power contracting and earnings-quality narrative into the next several sessions. Use $CEG tactically around the release with a straightforward top-line trigger.

Risk: If revenue is below USD 8.8bn, do not enter. • Valid until 2026-05-15 22:44 ET

Setup note: Numeric trigger is clean, but guidance/capex and nuclear availability can dominate investor reaction.

3/3 Long $RGTI — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: After-hours May 11: go long $RGTI if revenue >= USD 5mn; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Rigetti reports Q1 after the close May 11 with revenue consensus near USD 4.1mn and an expected loss around USD 0.05/share. Because the base is small, revenue above USD 5mn would be a material beat and can drive a speculative risk-on response in the name over multiple sessions. Use $RGTI tactically around the print with a simple revenue threshold.

Risk: If EPS loss <= -USD 0.07/share, do not enter. • Valid until 2026-05-15 22:44 ET

Setup note: Small base and speculative sector; follow-through depends on cash burn and runway perceptions.

Market Recap — Resilient initial jobless claims and softer productivity combined with stronger construction and consumer credit pushed yields higher, lifting the dollar and weighing on equities ($ZN=F, $DX=F). A smaller-than-expected natural-gas injection added energy support ($NG=F). After the close, mixed beats and cautious guides in AI-cloud names and travel platforms were met by a sharp oil rally after U.S.-Iran hostilities reports ($AKAM, $CL=F).

Intraday — Early data showed initial claims ticked up to 200k and Q1 productivity softened while construction spending and consumer credit surprised to the upside, signaling mixed growth-inflation dynamics that favored higher yields and a stronger dollar ($ZQ=F, $DX=F).

After Hours — Earnings hit in waves: Akamai reported a large AI-cloud commitment ($AKAM), CoreWeave beat revenue but tempered guidance and raised capex concerns ($CRWV), Airbnb and Expedia showed booking/revenue strength with mixed EPS, Gilead raised sales guide but cut EPS outlook, Motorola delivered record backlog, and Coinbase missed as trading slowed; markets then reacted to renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities that sent WTI toward $97/bbl ($CL=F, $ABNB).

Our Read — The tape leaves rates and cyclical exposures sensitive to which macro datapoints traders emphasize; tomorrow’s earnings cadence—especially AI-infrastructure and travel—will determine whether risk sentiment stabilizes or remains rate-driven. Position for volatility: rate- and oil-sensitive sectors first, then earnings-linked re-rates.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Short $TU — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If EPS <= $0.14, short at next regular-session open; cover by day-1 close.

TELUS reports Q1 before the market with consensus around $0.16 EPS and $3.64bn revenue. The key near-term sensitivity is dividend coverage and leverage optics via earnings and cash flow. If EPS prints at or below the $0.14 threshold, it would likely amplify payout sustainability concerns and pressure the equity multiple. This is a binary, event-tied short into the immediate post-earnings window.

Risk: EPS prints above $0.14. • Valid until 2026-05-14 20:07 ET

Setup note: Clean numeric trigger, but telecom tape can be defensive and reduce downside follow-through.

2/3 Long $ENB — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If adjusted EBITDA guidance >= C$20.8bn, go long at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Enbridge reports Q1 before the market, with attention on Mainline volumes, gas-distribution EBITDA, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$20.2bn–C$20.8bn. If management guides at or above the high end (>= C$20.8bn), it would strengthen cash-flow visibility and dividend coverage confidence, which are key drivers of midstream valuation. This trade targets a near-term re-rating on a clear guide signal.

Risk: EBITDA guidance is below C$20.8bn. • Valid until 2026-05-14 20:07 ET

Setup note: High-end guidance trigger is crisp; stock reaction can still hinge on DCF and regulatory updates.

3/3 Short $COIN — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: Short at next regular-session open; cover within 5 trading days.

Coinbase reported Q1 revenue of $1.41bn versus consensus around $1.49bn and GAAP EPS of -$1.49, with transaction revenue down 23% as trading slowed. Even with cost actions (including a 14% workforce cut) and a higher mix of subscription/services, the print highlights operating leverage to weaker volumes. A tactical short targets continued multiple pressure over the next few sessions.

Risk: $COIN closes higher by day-1 close. • Valid until 2026-05-14 20:07 ET

Setup note: Earnings miss is clear, but crypto beta can overwhelm fundamentals over short windows.

Market Recap — The Treasury’s $125bn May refunding announcement pressured front-end and belly futures while crude draws tightened balances ($ZN=F, $CL=F). Early-cycle and large-cap consumer earnings mixed — Uber reported strong bookings and guide, Disney reiterated FY26 buybacks ($UBER, $DIS). Energy data showed inventory draws across crude, gasoline and distillates, underpinning oil-linked names ($CL=F, $RB=F). Postmarket results from DoorDash and Warner Bros. Discovery shifted sentiment in commerce and media ($DASH, $WBD).

Intraday — Between 08:00–16:00 ET the Treasury outlined $58bn 3‑yr, $42bn 10‑yr and $25bn 30‑yr auctions, signaling steady nominal coupon sizes and heavier bill reliance, which influenced futures and rates ETFs ($ZN=F, $ZB=F). Corporate reports punctuated the session: Uber beat on gross bookings and raised Q2 guidance, Disney posted solid segment operating income and reiterated buybacks, and Apollo showed strong AUM and inflows supporting fee earnings outlook ($UBER, $DIS, $APO). The EIA reported draws in crude, gasoline and distillates, tightening the physical oil picture for traders ($CL=F, $HO=F).

After Hours — In the 16:00–20:00 ET window DoorDash reported accelerating orders, GOV and a bullish adjusted EBITDA guide for Q2, which should support local-commerce narratives ($DASH). Warner Bros. Discovery posted revenue with a large net loss driven by a Netflix termination fee and heavy non‑cash charges, resetting media cash‑flow expectations ($WBD). These prints will influence tomorrow’s tape for commerce and content-exposed names ($DASH, $WBD).

Our Read — The Treasury’s preset refunding sizes and oil inventory draws set a backdrop of higher supply focus and tighter energy balances into tomorrow. Watch how front-end/belly yield moves and consumer/ads earnings reaction drive relative performance at the open.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $COIN — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue is >= $1.6bn, buy next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Coinbase reports Q1 after the close with consensus revenue at $1.51bn and key sensitivity to transaction and subscription/services revenue. A revenue print of at least $1.6bn would signal stronger activity than consensus and can drive near-term earnings leverage re-rating. With a scheduled webcast at 17:30 ET, the catalyst is time-anchored and likely to resolve in the next few sessions.

Risk: Exit if the first regular session after earnings closes down. • Valid until 2026-05-13 close (ET)

Setup note: Binary earnings catalyst with a single revenue threshold; avoids subjective tone-reading on expenses.

2/3 Long $ABNB — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue is >= $2.65bn, buy next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Airbnb reports Q1 after the close with consensus revenue at $2.62bn and prior company guidance of $2.59bn–$2.63bn. A print at or above $2.65bn would exceed the top end of its prior guide, strengthening confidence in demand/take-rate and raising the odds of constructive Q2 commentary. That combination typically drives short-term multiple expansion and follow-through across several sessions.

Risk: Exit if the first regular session after earnings closes down. • Valid until 2026-05-13 close (ET)

Setup note: Clean threshold versus prior guidance range; still exposed to Q2 guide despite revenue beat.

3/3 Long $NET — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue is >= $625mn, buy next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Cloudflare reports Q1 after the close with consensus revenue at $620.83mn and prior guidance of about $620.00mn–$621.00mn. Revenue of at least $625mn would clearly exceed the guided range, supporting near-term growth visibility and valuation support for the edge/security platform. The report and call are tightly time-anchored, so any repricing should play out over the next 1–3 sessions.

Risk: Exit if the first regular session after earnings closes down. • Valid until 2026-05-13 close (ET)

Setup note: Strong numeric trigger, but upside still needs durability in forward indicators like RPO.

Market Recap — Markets weakened after mixed macro data and a strong tech print after the close. A wider March trade deficit and softer ISM Services weighed on risk appetite while labor flows showed mixed slack, pressuring front-end rates and the dollar ($DXY, $TNX). The SEC’s optional semiannual reporting proposal and DuPont’s raised guide offered idiosyncratic headlines through the day. After the bell, AMD’s strong quarter and upbeat guide shifted focus to earnings-led dispersion ($AMD, $SOXX).

Intraday — Early prints showed the March goods-and-services deficit widened, pressuring the dollar and creating a net-exports drag that lifted rates sensitivity ($DXY, $TNX). ISM Services cooled with new orders down sharply and sticky prices, while JOLTS pointed to fewer openings but higher hires, a mixed labor signal that muddied the Fed-path for duration assets ($TLT, $TNX). The SEC floated a proposal to permit semiannual Form 10-S filings and DuPont raised FY26 guidance with an accelerated buyback, each prompting sector-specific moves ($SPY, $DD).

After Hours — AMD reported a 38% revenue gain and guided Q2 above expectations, sharpening AI/semis narratives and moving chip proxies and ETFs ($AMD, $SOXX). Smaller post-close reports included Solventum affirming organic-sales and FCF targets and Talen’s strong EBITDA and FCF outturn plus acquisition financing updates, giving namespecific catalysts for tomorrow’s open ($SOLV, $TLN).

Our Read — Today’s mixed macro prints plus a strong AMD guide set up volatile earnings reactions and a bias toward rate- and AI-sensitive names. Monitor dispersion between semis/AI winners and macro-sensitive cyclicals into tomorrow’s sessions.

Tomorrow’s Trade Ideas & Trigger Map

1/3 Long $APP — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue >= $1.85bn, go long at next regular-session open; exit by day-1 close.

AppLovin reports after the close May 6. A revenue print at or above $1.85bn would be a clear datapoint that the ad-engine scaling is outperforming expectations, reinforcing the AI monetization narrative and supporting the multiple near term. This is a binary, earnings-tied setup designed to capture the immediate repricing window into the next session.

Risk: Exit if APP closes below its post-earnings open by day-1 close. • Valid until 2026-05-12 19:54 ET

Setup note: Binary trigger is clean; outcome risk is high given focus on revenue and margins.

2/3 Long $FTNT — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If Q1 revenue >= $1.76bn, go long at next regular-session open; exit by day-1 close.

Fortinet reports after the close May 6 with attention on billings, product/service revenue, operating margin, and 2026 guidance. A revenue print at or above $1.76bn (the high end of company guidance) would signal stronger demand than expected, improving confidence in cybersecurity spend durability. That should translate into near-term upside as estimates and sentiment adjust immediately post-report.

Risk: Exit if FTNT closes below its post-earnings open by day-1 close. • Valid until 2026-05-12 19:54 ET

Setup note: Uses a hard, guide-linked revenue threshold; avoids relying on billings or margin interpretation.

3/3 Long $DIS — Intraday (0–1d) • Earnings

Plan: If fiscal Q2 revenue >= $25.5bn, go long at next regular-session open; hold next 1–3 sessions.

Disney reports fiscal Q2 before the open May 6, with the market focused on Experiences operating income, streaming operating income, and sports costs. A revenue print at or above $25.5bn would indicate stronger monetization across parks/media versus expectations. With options implying a notable move, a beat at that threshold can drive a multi-session follow-through as investors reprice segment profit mix.

Risk: Exit if DIS closes below its post-earnings open by day-1 close. • Valid until 2026-05-12 19:54 ET

Setup note: Single numeric revenue hurdle gives structure, but the stock can react to segment profit mix.