At a glance — Key events
• S&P 500 fell 2.1% to 6,368.85 while Nasdaq dropped 3.2%, as mega-cap growth de-rated; $SPY, $QQQ, $XLC.
• Weak $69B 2Y auction at 3.936% with dealers taking 24.1% bear-steepened 2s10s toward ~52–53 bps; $TU, $IEF, $TLT.
• WTI closed at $99.64, +5.4% Friday, with Brent $112.57 on Iran deadline risk, lifting energy; $CL=F, $XLE, $TLT.

Risk assets traded around a combination of supply-driven rate pressure and oil/geopolitical risk. The 2Y yield rose about 3 bps w/w to 3.91% and the 10Y about 5 bps to 4.44%, with quarter-end supply including $69B in 2Ys and $70B in 5Ys weighing on $TU, $IEF and $TLT. Higher yields and a firmer DXY at 100.17 helped push USDJPY up 0.7% to 160.35 and EURUSD down 0.4% to 1.1509, consistent with the week’s modest bear-steepening and risk-off tone.

Oil and inflation signals turned more prominent into week’s end. WTI at $99.64 and Brent at $112.57 came alongside a 6.9M bbl crude inventory build to 456.2M and Iran/Hormuz risk, supporting $XLE and inflation hedges while pressuring long duration. Domestically, import prices rose 1.3% m/m and export prices 1.5% m/m, while Michigan sentiment slipped to 53.3 with 1-year inflation expectations at 3.8%, a mildly stagflationary mix for $SPY, $QQQ and $TLT. Policy and regulatory developments—from dovish BOJ appointments to DOJ subpoenas in a $110B media deal—added idiosyncratic cross-asset noise.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro tape is labor- and activity-heavy, with U.S. payrolls, ISM surveys and claims likely to dominate. These prints, alongside China’s PMI and EIA inventories, mainly reprice rates and the USD, with secondary effects on cyclicals, energy and broad risk proxies.

• Labor-market data (ADP, JOLTS, NFP; NFP score 92) → jobs strength/weakness→Fed path→$TLT/$SPY/$DXY. Numeric anchor: 92.
• ISM manufacturing/services (scores 81, 78) → activity/prices→rate expectations→cyclicals and duration; driver→rates→$SPY/$TLT/$SOXX. Numeric anchor: 81.
• China NBS manufacturing PMI (score 74) → China growth pulse→commodities/chips→global beta $FXI/$SOXX/$SPY. Numeric anchor: 74.
• EIA crude inventories (score 84) → stock changes→oil prices→inflation/rates $CL=F/$XLE/$TLT. Numeric anchor: 84.
• Weekly jobless claims (score 72) → layoffs→recession odds→curve/risk $TLT/$SPY/$IWM. Numeric anchor: 72.

Company Look

Next week is skewed toward sector dispersion rather than broad index beta, with a cluster of mid-cap earnings across discretionary, staples and industrials. The main themes are U.S. consumer resilience, housing-adjacent demand and industrial capex, with read-throughs to $XRT, $XLP, $XLI and, by extension, $SPY.

• Discretionary/retail earnings ($PVH, $RH) → holiday/luxury demand→consumer-spend expectations→$PVH/$RH/$XRT/$XHB/$SPY. Numeric anchor: N/A.
• Staples/food earnings ($CALM, $LW) → input costs and pricing power→defensiveness versus inflation→$CALM/$LW/$XLP/$SPY. Numeric anchor: N/A.
• Industrial/capex earnings ($MSM, $AYI) → factory and nonresidential spend→cycle durability→$MSM/$AYI/$XLI/$SPY. Numeric anchor: N/A.

This note is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

At a glance — Key events
- Fed held 3.50%-3.75%, 2Y +6 bps, S&P -1.36% on decision day — $SPY, $TLT, $DXY
- Brent +8.8% to $112.19 while WTI slipped 0.4% to $98.32 — $CL=F, $BZ=F, $XLE
- Iran waiver frees ~140M bbl over 30 days, pressuring crude benchmarks — $CL=F, $BZ=F, $XOP
- Fed hike odds rose to 25% for 2026, 2Y near 3.89% intraday — $TLT, $IEF, $UUP

Equities de-rated as the Fed’s hold at 3.50%-3.75% and a hawkish SEP left only one 2026 cut, lifting the 2Y by 6 bps to 3.79% and flattening 2s10s to ~46 bps. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, Nasdaq 2.1%, with AI leadership fading despite Nvidia’s $1T TAM and Micron’s $33.5B FQ3 guide. Higher front-end yields and a 25% priced probability of a 2026 hike tightened financial conditions, weighing on $SPY and $TLT even as DXY finished about 0.9% lower on relatively more hawkish foreign central banks.

An 8.8% Brent surge to $112.19 on Hormuz/Iraq risk initially supported $XLE and breakevens, but the regime flipped late when OFAC’s 30‑day Iran waiver opened a path for roughly 140M stranded barrels, threatening to cap crude benchmarks. EIA’s 6.2M bbl U.S. crude build and 5.4M bbl gasoline draw added nuance to domestic balances. Regulatory flow skewed sector dispersion: proposed U.S. bank capital relief was supportive for $XLF, while DOJ export-indictment headlines hit $SMCI and FDA’s Wegovy HD 7.2 mg approval underpinned obesity-drug optimism in $NVO and $XLV.

(This recap is informational only and not investment advice.)

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week centers on how tighter policy odds and oil volatility transmit through auctions, global growth data, and inflation prints into rates, the dollar, and energy. The heaviest concentration is in U.S. supply and PMIs, with Japan and UK CPI shaping cross-asset reactions to the renewed inflation narrative.

- UST auctions (2Y, 5Y, 7Y; 3 sales, 2–7Y sector) test demand for higher yields. Driver→channel→assets: tail size moves curve and $TLT/$SPY.
- Growth/sentiment data (US/EU PMIs plus U. Michigan; 3 releases) recalibrate activity and price momentum. Driver→channel→assets: composite indices steer $DXY, $TLT, $SPY.
- CPI prints (Japan, UK; 2 reports) refine global inflation and BOJ/BoE paths. Driver→channel→assets: headline/core readings shift $FXY, $FXB, $TLT.
- Oil balances (weekly EIA; Δ_crude_Bbl anchor) intersect with Iran supply shock. Driver→channel→assets: inventory surprise drives $CL=F, $XLE, $TIP.

Company Look

Next week is more sector-dispersion than broad index-beta, with a tight cluster of mid-cap earnings spanning housing, infrastructure, industrial services, discretionary, payrolls, and travel. The focus is on how margins and revenues translate tighter financial conditions and oil volatility into demand and pricing across cyclicals.

- Earnings across infrastructure, housing, services, and travel (6 reports: CNM, KBH, CHWY, PAYX, CTAS, CCL) frame demand breadth and margin resilience. Numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver→expectations→sector/index: revenue and margin trends shape outlooks for $XLI, $XLY, $IWM, $SPY.

At a glance — Key events
• Brent +11.3% to $103.14 on Hormuz/Iran war risk, pressuring Nasdaq -1.3% — $CL, $XLE, $QQQ
• January core PCE +0.4% m/m, ~3.1% y/y re-firmed front-end; 2Y +17 bps — $TLT, $SPY, $UUP
• $39B 10Y at 4.217% and $22B 30Y at 4.871% lifted term premium; 10Y +13 bps — $TLT, $IEF, $DXY
• S&P 500 -1.6% while IG/HY OAS widened ~4 bps; VIX closed 27.2 — $SPY, $HYG, $VIX

Oil and rates jointly drove risk this week. WTI rose 8.6% to $98.71 and Brent 11.3% to $103.14 despite a 400M‑barrel IEA reserve release, as Hormuz disruption and Iran war headlines lifted the inflation risk premium and favored $XLE over growth benchmarks. At the same time, January core PCE at +0.4% m/m (~3.1% y/y) and CPI at 2.4% y/y, alongside firm product draws, kept the “higher-for-longer” narrative alive and underpinned a 1.5% gain in DXY, pressuring $QQQ and $IWM.

On rates, a $39B 10Y auction at 4.217% and $22B 30Y at 4.871%, both with 2.45 bid-to-cover, reinforced term-premium pressure; 2Y yields rose 17 bps and 10Y 13 bps, flattening 2s10s by ~4 bps and weighing on $TLT. Equities de-rated: S&P 500 -1.6%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Russell 2000 -1.8%, with software underperforming despite solid AI-related prints from Oracle (cloud +46%–50% guide) and Adobe ($6.40B revenue, $26.06B ARR). Credit widened modestly (HY OAS to 317 bps) while VIX ranged 24.7–35.3, closing at 27.2, consistent with tighter but orderly conditions.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week is dominated by central banks and the Fed, with global policy (BoC, SNB, BoE and FOMC) steering rates and USD, while UST auctions and energy balances (EIA) test term premia, real yields, and inflation expectations across $TLT, $DXY and risk assets.

• Central-bank decisions (FOMC SEP; BoE; BoC; SNB, scores 98/90/86/82) drive policy path→front-end yields→equity multiples; $TLT, $DXY, $SPY
• UST supply (20Y and 10Y TIPS auctions, scores 87+82=169) drives term premia→real yields→duration risk; $TLT, $TIP, $DXY
• Energy balances (EIA, score 84) drive crude inventories→inflation expectations→rates and energy equities; $CL=F, $XLE, $TLT

Company Look

Next week is sector-dispersion driven, not pure index beta, with earnings clustered in US discount/upscale consumer, transports, and global/AI IT services and semis. The focus is on how consumer spending, freight volumes, and AI/corporate IT budgets hold up after oil’s ~8.6% weekly rise and higher yields.

• Consumer staples/value retail (Dollar Tree, numeric anchor: N/A) → discount traffic and margins→defensive vs broad retail expectations→$DLTR, $XRT, $SPY
• Discretionary and freight earnings (WSM, DRI, FDX; numeric anchor: N/A) → comps/traffic/volumes→macro-demand read‑through→cyclicals vs defensives in $XLY, $IYT, $SPY
• Tech/AI and China platform earnings (MU, ACN, BABA; numeric anchor: N/A) → AI memory/IT/cloud growth→software and semis sentiment→$QQQ, $SMH,

Informational only; not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

At a glance — Key events

- WTI jumped 35.6% to $90.90, lifting $XLE and pressuring $TLT as inflation beta repriced.
- U.S. payrolls fell 92k, unemployment hit 4.4%, jolting $SPY, $TLT, $UUP into stagflation debate.
- Q4 nonfarm productivity beat at 2.8% vs ~1.8% consensus, modestly supporting $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT.
- 10Y yield rose 17 bps to 4.142% while DXY gained 1.4%, weighing on $SPX, $IWM.

Oil and labor were the dominant macro drivers. An effective Hormuz closure delayed roughly 140M barrels and sent WTI up 35.6% and Brent 27.9%, boosting $XLE but pressuring long duration as the 10Y climbed 17 bps to 4.142%. That shock overrode EIA’s 3.5M‑barrel inventory build and helped push the VIX to a 29.5 close. On data, February payrolls printed -92k versus +59k consensus with unemployment at 4.4% and wages up 0.4% MoM, while ISM Services held at 56.1 and jobless claims stayed low at 213k, leaving a stagflation‑flavored mix.

Cross‑asset pricing reflected that tension. The S&P 500 fell 2.0%, Nasdaq 1.2%, and Russell 2000 4.1%, with Energy up 1.2% in $XLE and Health Care down 4.7% in $XLV. Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination kept a hawkish bias in focus alongside a $125B refunding that cleared but did not cap term premia. AI remained a counterweight: Broadcom delivered $19.31B revenue, $8.4B AI revenue, and a $22.0B Q2 guide, while Marvell outlined a ~$15B FY2028 target versus $12.92B consensus, supporting $SOXX and partially cushioning broader cyclical weakness.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week centers on U.S. inflation, oil, and Treasury supply. February CPI and the oil‑linked EIA report will test whether the recent 35.6% WTI spike sticks in inflation expectations, while 3Y/10Y/30Y auctions and global growth prints (Japan, UK) feed back into rates, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.

- Inflation prints (CPI, materiality 93) anchor the week; core MoM surprises steer inflation→rates→USD/equity duration for $TLT, $DXY, $SPY.
- UST auctions (3Y/10Y/30Y, combined materiality 249) test auction demand→yields→discount rates for $SHY, $IEF, $SPY.
- Oil/inventories (EIA, materiality 76) channel Δ_crude_Bbl→WTI→breakevens/energy beta for $CL=F, $XLE, $SPY.
- Global/US growth and sentiment (OTHER, total materiality 259) drive GDP/sentiment→central banks→USTs/FX for $DXY, $TLT, $SPY.

Company Look

Next week is skewed to sector dispersion rather than pure index beta, with a heavy earnings slate across AI infrastructure/software, China EVs, U.S. staples, value retail, and housing. Tech prints from $ORCL, $ADBE, and $HPE frame AI capex and monetization, while $NIO, $LI, $DG, $CPB, and $LEN update views on consumer health and rate sensitivity.

- Earnings (aggregate materiality high; numeric anchor: N/A) drive revenue/margins→guidance versus AI/consumer expectations→sector/index dispersion across $HPE, $ORCL, $ADBE, $NIO, $LI, $DG, $CPB, $LEN, $XRT.

At a glance — Key events

- Claims at 206k vs 225k pushed “higher‑for‑longer” and DXY +0.9% — $DXY, $USDJPY
- EIA crude draw -9.0M bbl to 419.8M drove WTI +5.3% and XLE +1.0% — $CL=F, $XLE
- Treasury 20Y $16.0B auction, BTC 2.36x, high yield 4.664%, nudged 10Y +4 bps — $TLT, $ZN=F
- Supreme Court tariff ruling vs new 10% global surcharge swung trade‑risk premia and broad ETFs — $SPY, $QQQ

U.S. macro this week skewed toward resilient activity and tighter policy expectations. Initial claims at 206k vs 225k and January industrial production at +0.7% m/m reinforced a “no‑landing” narrative, helping push UST 2Y +7 bps and 10Y +4 bps through Thursday, with the 2s10s spread flattening about 3 bps to ~61 bps. Fed Vice Chair Barr’s “on hold for some time” signal and FOMC minutes trimming 2026 cut expectations supported the dollar (DXY +0.9%, USDJPY +1.6%) while pressuring the duration‑sensitive equity complex, even as cyclicals benefited from stronger industrial and housing data.

Cross‑asset price action reflected the mix of firmer growth, higher real rates, inventory‑driven commodities, and shifting trade policy. A -9.0M bbl crude draw to 419.8M lifted WTI +5.3% and XLE +1.0%, feeding inflation‑beta trades against long duration. Treasury’s $16.0B 20Y auction (BTC 2.36x) highlighted ongoing term‑premium sensitivity. Later in the week, the Supreme Court’s invalidation of IEEPA “Liberation Day” tariffs, with potential $130–175B in refunds, briefly supported SPY and QQQ before Trump’s temporary 10% Section 122 global surcharge re‑introduced margin and EM‑exporter risk. Overseas, Japan’s 0.2% annualised Q4 GDP miss and India’s 1.81% WPI kept local policy paths in focus without dominating global risk.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week is macro‑light but still rates‑sensitive: Treasury supply from bills through 7Y interacts with recent Fed repricing, while EIA energy data and European/Japanese CPI revisions can nudge inflation expectations, mainly moving U.S. yields, the dollar, energy, and broad risk proxies.

- UST auctions (13W/26W, 2Y, 2Y FRN, 5Y, 7Y; numeric anchor: N/A): supply → yields/term premium → $SHY, $IEF, $TLT.
- U.S. energy inventories (oil, gas; numeric anchor: N/A): inventory swings → WTI/HH → inflation‑beta and $XLE, $UNG.
- Euro area and Tokyo CPI (numeric anchor: N/A): inflation surprises → ECB/BOJ path → EUR/JPY, global duration, $DXY.

Company Look

Next week is sector‑dispersion heavy: concentrated earnings across AI hardware, cloud/software, and U.S. housing/consumer bellwethers should dominate over pure index‑beta, with guidance on AI capex and household demand steering tech, discretionary, and broader benchmarks.

- U.S. consumer/housing earnings (DPZ, HD, LOW; numeric anchor: N/A): spending and housing tone → guidance revisions → $XLY, $SPY.
- AI/semis and hardware earnings (NVDA, DELL, CRWV; numeric anchor: N/A): AI server demand → capex expectations → $SOXX, $SMH, $SPY.
- Enterprise/software earnings (CRM, INTU; numeric anchor: N/A): SaaS and SMB demand → multiple support/pressure → $IGV, $SPY.

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This report is for information only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

At a glance — Key events
• Softer Jan CPI at +0.2% m/m pulled 10Y yields -18 bps and DXY -0.7% — $TLT, $DXY, $SPY
• January payrolls +130K but 2025 jobs revised -898K, clouding Fed path and growth tone — $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT
• $42B 10Y and $25B 30Y auctions with BTC 2.39 and 2.66 contained term premia — $IEF, $TLT, $DXY

Equities faded despite friendlier inflation and lower yields. S&P 500 fell 1.4% w/w (6,932.30 → 6,836.17) and Nasdaq 2.1%, with VIX up 16.0% to 20.60. January CPI at +0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y, plus core at 2.5% y/y, reinforced a disinflation narrative and pulled the 10Y to 4.04% (-18 bps). But the January Employment Situation—headline payrolls +130K against an 898K downward revision to 2025 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%—left the growth backdrop ambiguous, limiting multiple expansion in $SPY and $QQQ.

Rates and FX adjusted more cleanly. UST 2Y fell 10 bps to 3.40% and the 10s–2s curve flattened ~8 bps (~72 → ~64 bps), helped by a $42B 10Y auction (BTC 2.39, ~64.6% indirects) and a $25B 30Y (BTC 2.66). The ECI at 0.7% q/q and 3.4% y/y, plus softer import prices (+0.1% m/m) and still‑benign oil (WTI -1.0% w/w; EIA crude +8.5M bbl to 428.8M bbl), supported lower term premia and a 0.7% DXY decline, even as Energy ($XLE +2.1%) diverged from crude.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week is macro-heavy around inflation, growth and supply: UK CPI, US PCE, PMIs and two UST auctions should mainly reprice rates, USD and broader risk. Energy balances via EIA reports could add volatility in $CL=F and $XLE after this week’s 8.5M‑bbl crude build.

• UST supply (AUCTION; $16B 20Y, $9B 30Y TIPS) — numeric anchor: $25B; tail/BTC drive term premia → rates → $TLT, $IEF
• Energy balances (EIA; oil and gas) — numeric anchor: N/A; inventory surprises move curves → energy earnings → $CL=F, $XLE, $UNG
• Growth pulse (ISM; US and Eurozone PMIs) — numeric anchor: N/A; PMI swings growth expectations → risk appetite → $SPY, $EZU, $IEF
• Fed inflation gauge (PCE; US Jan core) — numeric anchor: N/A; core PCE shifts cut odds → front-end yields/USD → $IEF, $SPY, $DXY
• Labor flow (CLAIMS; weekly) — numeric anchor: N/A; claims adjust labor-cooling narrative → Fed path → $IEF, $SPY, $DXY

Company Look

Next week is sector‑dispersion rather than broad index‑beta driven: earnings from software/semis, consumer, industrials and energy should steer style and sector rotation more than the headline indices.

• Earnings — from $PANW, $CDNS, $ADI, $BKNG, $OXY, $DE, $WMT, $ETSY — numeric anchor: N/A; results/guidance steer growth, margins and capex expectations → sector leadership and index breadth in $QQQ, $XLY, $XLE, $XLI, $SPY

At a glance — Key events
• Treasury lifted Q1 borrowing needs to $574B; term-premium worries, but 10Y -4 bps supported $TLT, $SPY.
• Mega-cap AI capex surged, with AMZN flagging ~$200B 2026 spend; $SOXX outperformed while Nasdaq fell 1.8%.
• WTI slid 3.3% to $63.31 despite a 3.5M bbl inventory draw; pressure persisted on $CL=F, $XLE.

U.S. equities were broadly flat-to-softer despite resilient growth signals. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% while the Nasdaq dropped 1.8%, but small caps gained 2.2%, helped by a stronger domestic growth pulse. ISM Manufacturing printed 50.5 versus 49.7 consensus and ISM Services 53.2 versus 50.4, reinforcing a soft-landing narrative. At the same time, AI-linked capex from Amazon (~$200B for 2026) and Alphabet ($85–$90B) kept semiconductor beta firm, with $SOXX and names like NVDA up even as broader tech lagged.

Rates finished modestly lower, with the 10Y down 4 bps to 4.206% and the 2Y down 5 bps to 3.47%, leaving the 2s10s curve near +74 bps. Treasury raised its Q1 borrowing estimate to $574B and telegraphed $125B in upcoming coupon supply, but auctions and bill demand (e.g., a $77B 182-day bill at 3.525%) pointed to contained term-premium stress. DXY still gained 0.7% to 97.63, while crude fell 3.3% even with a 3.5M bbl inventory draw, softening inflation-beta and weighing on energy equities.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week clusters around three U.S. macro axes: inflation (CPI), labor (jobs report, claims), and supply (Treasury auctions), with energy inventories adding another layer. Together, they mainly risk repricing rates, USD, and the broader risk complex via growth, inflation, and term-premium channels.

• UST supply / auctions (3Y, 10Y, 30Y) dominate term-premium risk; numeric anchor: N/A. Driver→channel→assets: auction tails→curve levels→$TLT, $IEF, $DXY.
• Inflation data, centered on Jan CPI, steer real rates and equity duration; numeric anchor: N/A. Driver→channel→assets: core CPI→Fed path→$TLT, $SPY, $DXY.
• Labor prints (Employment Situation, initial claims) refine growth and cuts timing; numeric anchor: N/A. Driver→channel→assets: payrolls/claims→front-end rates→$TLT, $SPY, $DXY.
• Retail sales and weekly EIA oil/gas data update demand and energy balances; numeric anchor: N/A. Driver→channel→assets: demand/inventories→commodities→$CL=F, $XLE, $SPY.

Company Look

Next week looks more sector-dispersion than pure index-beta, with a cross-section of staples, autos, ecommerce, networking, travel, crypto, and semis. The focus is how late-cycle consumer strength, AI capex chains, and risk appetite in crypto/travel reshape sector leadership inside the index.

• Consumer staples earnings (e.g., $KO) frame pricing power and volume resilience; numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver→expectations→sector/index: margins→defensive bid→$XLP, $KO, $SPY.
• Cyclical consumer earnings ($F, $SHOP, $ABNB) test autos and ecommerce/travel demand; numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver→expectations→sector/index: bookings/GMV/outlook→cyclical beta→$XLY, $F, $SHOP, $ABNB, $SPY.
• Tech/AI stack and networking earnings ($CSCO, $AMAT) gauge enterprise and semi-capex cadence; numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver→expectations→sector/index: EPS/guide→growth leadership→$XLK, $SOXX, $AMAT, $CSCO, $SPY.
• Crypto-exposed earnings ($COIN) link trading volumes to risk sentiment; numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver→expectations→sector/index: transaction revenue→risk appetite→$COIN, $BTC, $SPY.

At a glance — Key events
• Fed held 3.50–3.75%, front-end eased with 2Y -8bp (3.52%); DXY -1.1% — $TLT, $SPY
• December PPI +0.5% m/m vs +0.2% consensus, lifting rate-vol and pressuring duration — $ZN=F, $SPY
• WTI +6.8% (61.07 → 65.21) on -2.3M bbl crude draw vs +1.8M build expected — $CL=F, $XLE
• Q3 2025 productivity +4.9%, unit labor costs -1.9%, supporting margins and duration — $SPY, $ZN=F
• Gold above $5,000 and DXY 96.32 (-1.1% w/w) signaled mixed risk and FX positioning — $GLD, $DXY

Rates and FX traded around a tug-of-war between growth and inflation signals. The FOMC held at 3.50–3.75%, helping pull 2Y yields down 8bp even as the 10Y rose 2bp to 4.26%, steepening 2s10s by ~10bp. A stronger‑than‑expected 0.5% m/m December PPI and firm core services supported higher breakevens and front‑end yields, while revised Q3 2025 productivity at 4.9% and unit labor costs -1.9% argued for a more benign medium‑term inflation backdrop. Bowman’s indication of three 25 bp cuts in 2026 preserved an easing bias, softening the dollar (DXY -1.1%).

Macro and policy headlines outside the Fed also shaped risk. US consumer confidence dropped to 84.50, the lowest since 2014, flagging demand risk for discretionary sectors, while the Richmond Fed survey stayed in contraction at -6. Manufacturing softness contrasted with strong energy pricing: WTI gained 6.8% and Brent 7.3% as a -2.3M bbl EIA crude draw beat expectations for a +1.8M build, even as OFAC’s Venezuela General License 46 suggested future supply relief. Regulatory activity—from SEC tokenized‑securities guidance to enforcement in ad‑tech and agri‑business—added idiosyncratic governance risk, but broad equity indices still eked out modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq down 0.2%.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week clusters around three themes: global central-bank decisions (ECB, BoE), U.S. labor and activity data (NFP, ISM), and Treasury supply. The main transmission channels run through rates and the USD, which then feed into risk assets and energy via crude inventories and issuance-driven term premia.

• Global central banks (OTHER): ECB and BoE decisions at 07:00–07:15 ET steer cross‑currency rate differentials; driver→FX→global risk/rates — $DXY, $TLT, $VGK
• Treasury supply/term premia (SUPPLY): Quarterly Refunding guidance and borrowing estimates (sizes in $B) reprice duration; supply→term premia→rates/equities — $TLT, $DXY, $SPY
• Growth/inflation PMIs (ISM): Jan ISM manufacturing/services at 10:00 ET recalibrate growth and prices‑paid; PMIs→rates path→cyclicals/multiples — $SPY, $TLT, $DXY
• Labor market (NFP): Jan jobs report at 08:30 ET shapes cuts timing and equity duration; wages→inflation→yields→equities/USD — $TLT, $SPY, $DXY
• Oil balances (EIA): Weekly crude inventories at 10:30 ET shift inflation‑beta; stocks change (M bbl)→crude→energy/risk — $CL=F, $XLE, $SPY

Company Look

Next week looks index‑beta heavy given mega‑cap earnings (GOOGL, AMZN, AMD, QCOM), with additional sector dispersion from media/streaming and staples (DIS, PEP). The dominant themes are AI/semis demand, cloud/ads profitability, and the resilience of consumer spending across discretionary and staples.

• Mega‑cap platforms (EARNINGS): GOOGL and AMZN results steer cloud/ads and margin narratives; numeric anchor: N/A; fundamentals→growth expectations→index/QQQ beta — $GOOGL, $AMZN, $QQQ, $SPY
• Semiconductors/AI (EARNINGS): AMD and QCOM shape datacenter, handset, and auto demand assumptions; numeric anchor: N/A; end‑demand→semis revisions→tech risk — $AMD, $QCOM, $SOXX, $SPY
• Media/consumer services (EARNINGS): DIS subscriber and parks trends inform streaming and experience spending; numeric anchor: N/A; user/traffic→sector rerating→communication services — $DIS, $XLC, $SPY
• Staples/defensives (EARNINGS): PEP pricing and volume mix gauge consumer elasticity and margin defense; numeric anchor: N/A; input costs→staples margins→defensive bid — $PEP, $XLP,

At a glance — Key events
• Greenland tariff shock drove S&P -2.2% Tuesday and VIX 20.1 before mean reversion — $SPX, $VIX
• China Q4 GDP slowed to 4.5% YoY, capping upside for EM beta — $FXI, $EEM
• 20Y UST auction sized $13.0B cleared at 4.846% with 2.86x BTC, term-premium contained — $TLT, $IEF
• Core PCE running near 2.8% YoY kept rate‑cut hopes in check despite solid spending — $SPY, $TLT

Macro data pointed to late‑cycle but still‑resilient growth. China Q4 GDP at 4.5% YoY and full‑year 5.0% reduced hard‑landing fears but underlined structural drag for EM and cyclicals like $EEM and $CAT. In the US, real PCE grew about 0.30% over Oct–Nov with core PCE near 2.8% YoY, while initial jobless claims at 200k versus 210k consensus signaled a tight labor market. BEA’s 4.40% Q3 state‑GDP growth and 3.30% income gains supported broad equity earnings power even as the LEI fell 0.30%, flagging maturing‑cycle conditions.

Policy and risk events dominated cross‑asset pricing more than rates. Trump’s planned Europe/Greenland tariffs drove a one‑day S&P -2.2% drawdown and pushed VIX as high as 20.99 before retracing; record‑high gold and Goldman’s lift of its end‑2026 target to $5,400/oz kept $GLD and $GDX bid. USTs were stable, with the $13.0B 20Y auction clearing at 4.846% and 2.86x BTC. Supreme Court arguments in Trump v. Cook appeared to reduce near‑term odds of a disruptive Fed reshuffle, helping anchor $ZN=F, $ZB=F and $DXY. Oil inventories rose 3.6M bbl to 426.0M, yet WTI gained 2.7%, supporting $XLE.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

A packed week centers on Fed communication and Treasury supply, with auctions and the FOMC decision likely driving rates and the USD. Energy balances via EIA reports and Friday’s PPI will refine inflation expectations and thus risk premia across $TLT, $DXY and $SPY.

• UST auctions (2Y, 5Y, FRN, 7Y; total materiality_score 312) — numeric anchor: 4 auctions; curve demand → term premium → $TLT, $SPY
• Central‑bank communication (BoC + FOMC + Powell; score 280) — numeric anchor: FOMC score 98; policy surprises → rate expectations → $TLT, $DXY
• Energy balances (oil, gas EIA; score 145) — numeric anchor: 2 EIA prints; inventory shocks → commodities → inflation beta → $CL=F
• Inflation pipeline (Dec PPI; score 85) — numeric anchor: N/A; PPI surprise → PCE expectations → yields/multiples → $TLT, $SPY

Company Look

Next week is index‑beta driven, with mega‑cap tech and large platforms dominating tape direction. Earnings concentration in $MSFT, $AAPL, $META, $TSLA and $ASML will set growth‑and‑AI expectations, while cyclicals, energy and financials prints fine‑tune sector dispersion within $SPY and $QQQ.

• Mega‑cap tech earnings (MSFT, AAPL, META, TSLA, ASML) — numeric anchor: N/A; AI/revenue guidance → growth expectations → $QQQ, $SPY
• Industrial/cyclical earnings (BA, GEV) — numeric anchor: N/A; delivery/margin tone → industrial cycle views → $XLI, $SPY
• Financials/consumer earnings (AXP) — numeric anchor: N/A; spend/credit trends → financials breadth → $XLF, $SPY
• Energy majors earnings (XOM) — numeric anchor: N/A; upstream profits/buybacks → energy leadership → $XLE, $SPY

Informational only; not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Macro Events to Watch

Company Events to Watch

At a glance — Key events
• Payrolls +50k and unemployment 4.4% nudged Fed cut expectations later, pressuring $TLT and capping $SPY at -0.3% w/w.
• EIA crude inventories -3.8M bbl to 419.1M bbl lifted WTI +3.1% w/w and supported $XLE.
• China H200 chip pull-forward (~1.2M units at ~$27k) drove SOXX +4.6% w/w and $NVDA strength.

Labor and inflation expectations dominated cross‑asset moves. The December payroll gain of 50,000 with 4.4% unemployment reduced odds of an April cut, pushing the implied easing start toward June and leaving the 10Y near 4.58% (Thu). DXY gained 0.7% to 99.13 as EURUSD slipped 0.7% to 1.1638. Fed commentary from Kashkari, Barkin, and Miran, combined with JOLTS openings at 7.1mn, widened uncertainty around how far beyond two 25 bp cuts the 2026 path might go, keeping duration and rate‑sensitive equities choppy.

Commodities and policy added idiosyncratic drivers. A 3.8M bbl crude draw, taking inventories to 419.1M bbl, pushed WTI up 3.1% to $59.12 and underpinned energy equities. The UN trimming 2026 global growth to 2.7% and a proposed $200bn Fannie/Freddie MBS purchase program both pointed to a below‑trend but supported backdrop for risk and housing‑linked assets. Meanwhile, BEA’s clustering of GDP/PCE into January 22 and February 20 increased future one‑day macro risk for $SPY and $TLT. Credit stayed steady with IG OAS at 79bp, while VIX ended at 14.49.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week centers on U.S. inflation and energy balances, with CPI and PPI guiding the Fed path and EIA/OPEC shaping the commodity‑linked inflation impulse. Treasury supply via the 3Y auction adds a term‑premium test for rates, USD, and risk assets.

• Energy balances (EIA crude/gas; total materiality 130) — numeric anchor: 130; inventory surprises → oil/gas curves→ inflation beta in $CL=F, $XLE, $SPY.
• CPI (Dec; materiality 92) — numeric anchor: 92; core CPI m/m → real yields → $TLT, $SPY, $DXY.
• UST supply (3Y auction; materiality 78) — numeric anchor: $78B range‑proposal; tail/BTC → term premia → $IEF, $TLT, $DXY.
• PPI (Dec; materiality 76) — numeric anchor: 76; input prices → margin/inflation expectations → $TLT, $SPY, $DXY.
• OPEC report (materiality 69) — numeric anchor: 69; production/demand revisions → crude path → $CL=F, $XLE, $DXY.

Company Look

Next week looks more sector‑dispersion than pure index‑beta, with U.S. financials’ Q4 prints and one major semi guidance update steering rotations between $XLF, $SOXX, and the broader $SPY. Bank earnings read through to the macro narrative, while TSM’s AI outlook anchors semi expectations.

• U.S. money‑center / custody bank earnings (JPM, BAC, C, WFC, BK; sum materiality ~359) — numeric anchor: N/A; loan/NII/fee trends → earnings expectations → $XLF, $SPY, $TLT.
• Wall Street and asset‑manager earnings (GS, MS, BLK; sum materiality ~207) — numeric anchor: N/A; IB/trading/flows → risk appetite and equity allocation → $XLF, $SPY.
• Global semi guidance (TSM; materiality 88) — numeric anchor: N/A; AI capex and GM outlook → semi cycle expectations → $SOXX, $NVDA, $TSM.

This note is for information only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to transact.

Material Macro Events to Watch

Material Company Events to Watch

At a glance — Key events:
• Payrolls +50k and unemployment 4.4% nudged Fed-cut odds back, with 10Y ~4.58% and DXY +0.7% — $SPY, $TLT
• EIA crude -3.8M bbl to 419.1M bbl lifted WTI +3.1% and supported energy beta — $CL=F, $XLE
• China H200 chip pull-forward ~1.2M units (~$27k each) drove SOXX +4.6% outperformance — $SOXX, $NVDA

Macro this week sat between still‑firm activity and slightly cooler labor signals. Nonfarm payrolls rose 50k with unemployment at 4.4%, pushing futures-implied first Fed cut toward June and leaving the 10Y around 4.58% (Thu). JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1mn, briefly favoring duration and equities before the jobs report reversed some easing hopes, with DXY +0.7% w/w to 99.13 and EURUSD down 0.7% to 1.1638 as the higher‑for‑longer narrative re‑emerged.

Rates and commodities transmitted most of the macro signal into risk assets. Front-end yields slipped 2bp w/w to 3.74% while the 10Y rose 1bp to 4.58%, steepening 2s10s by 3bp amid a strong $78.863B 42‑day bill auction at 3.560% and 2.89x bid‑to‑cover. EIA reported crude inventories down 3.8M bbl to 419.1M bbl, helping WTI gain 3.1% and Brent 4.3%. Equities were mixed: S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, Nasdaq gained 0.3%, while SOXX rallied 4.6% on China’s ~1.2M H200/H20 chip pull‑forward.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Inflation and oil will dominate next week’s macro narrative, with CPI and PPI resetting Fed-path probabilities while OPEC/EIA data steer energy and breakevens. Treasury supply through the 3Y auction adds a term‑premium test for USD and long-duration risk.

• US CPI (materiality 92) anchors the inflation bucket; core CPI m/m drives inflation→rates→USD→equities — $TLT, $SPY, $DXY
• EIA crude and gas (scores 72+58=130) shape balances→oil→inflation/risk, informing $CL=F and $XLE sensitivity — $CL=F, $XLE, $SPY
• Treasury auctions (3Y score 78) test supply→term premia→rates/FX/risk; tail/bid‑to‑cover steer $IEF and $TLT — $IEF, $TLT, $DXY
• PPI (score 76) feeds input prices→inflation→rates, refining margin and CPI pass‑through expectations — $TLT, $DXY
• OPEC report (score 69) updates oil balance→crude→inflation/risk via production/demand revisions — $CL=F, $XLE

Company Look

Next week skews toward index‑beta rather than idiosyncratic dispersion, with U.S. financials’ Q4 prints driving $XLF and a single large-cap semi guidance event ($TSM) potentially swinging $SOXX and growth leadership.

• Large-bank earnings (JPM, C, BAC, WFC; scores 80+72+73+70) drive earnings→expectations→financials/index via NII, credit, and costs; numeric anchor: EPS guide N/A — $XLF, $SPY, $TLT
• Market‑linked/fee earnings (BK, GS, MS, BLK; scores 64+71+70+66) affect fees→risk appetite→index through trading, IB, and AUM trends; numeric anchor: AUM/flows N/A — $XLF, $SPY
• $TSM 2026 guidance (score 88) steers AI capex→semis→index/rates via GM/capex/revenue outlook; numeric anchor: capex/GM N/A — $TSM, $SOXX, $NVDA

Material events to watch — MACRO

Material events to watch — COMPANY

At a glance — Key events:
• Q3 GDP at 4.3% SAAR with softer PCE (~2.2%) lifted growth beta; S&P +1.4% — $SPY
• 7Y UST auction cleared $44B at 3.93% with 2.51x BTC; 10Y -2 bps — $TLT
• Venezuela/tanker and CPC loadings cut 33% whipsawed oil; WTI +0.1% but -3.1% Fri — $CL=F

Equities ground higher into year‑end on a clean “growth without heat” mix. Q3 GDP was revised to 4.3% SAAR while PCE tracked near 2.2%, supporting the S&P 500’s 1.4% weekly gain to 6,932 and Russell 2000’s 2.1% rise. Claims around 214–215k underlined a still‑firm labor market, keeping a soft‑landing narrative intact. Tech and basic materials outperformed, helped by Alphabet’s $4.75B Intersect Power deal targeting 10.8 GW, which reinforced AI‑power and renewable build‑out themes.

Rates and commodities were quieter in level terms but important in signaling. The 2Y and 10Y each fell about 2 bps to 3.46% and 4.14%, with the 7Y’s $44B auction (2.51x bid‑to‑cover, $25.9B indirects) confirming healthy duration demand. Oil ended roughly flat on the week (WTI +0.1% to $56.74) despite a 3.1% Friday selloff as U.S. enforcement on Venezuelan flows, a 33% CPC loading cut (removing 0.57 mbpd), and an IEA‑flagged 3.84 mb/d 2026 surplus pulled the curve between near‑term tightness and medium‑term glut.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Summary: Next week is macro-heavy despite thin liquidity, with manufacturing PMIs, Fed minutes, and bill supply likely steering rates, USD, and cyclicals. Energy balances via EIA and Treasury settlements could add noise in front-end funding and oil-sensitive risk.

• Inflation/growth PMIs (ISM, Chicago, China NBS; ISM materiality 88) — activity data→rates expectations→$SPY/$TLT; numeric anchor: 49.0 index cutoff — $SPY, $TLT, $DXY
• Fed and housing color (FOMC minutes, Case‑Shiller; OTHER total materiality ~297) — policy bias→2Y/term premia→equities; numeric anchor: 0.3% m/m — $SPY, $TLT, $DXY
• Crude balances (EIA; materiality 82) — inventory surprise→oil→breakevens→rates; numeric anchor: 5M bbl vs 5‑year average — $CL=F, $XLE, $DXY
• Treasury supply and bills (AUCTIONS + SUPPLY total materiality ~288) — cash absorption→front‑end→USD/risk; numeric anchor: ≥$180B settlement or BTC ≤2.5x — $SHY, $BIL, $DXY

Company Look

Summary: Company risk is still sector‑specific rather than index‑driven, but a few prints and TSLA’s delivery report can influence small caps, EVs, and cyclicals. Expect dispersion in microcaps, transports, and aerospace more than broad earnings beta.

• Earnings bucket (OWLS, GBX, PKE, VTGN, IMTEF; total materiality ~272) — results/guidance→sector sentiment→index tails; numeric anchor: ≥$0.15 EPS surprise for $GBX — $GBX, $IYT, $SPY, $PKE, $XBI
• Production/operations bucket (TSLA deliveries; materiality 88) — units/mix→margin expectations→mega‑cap beta; numeric anchor: ≥0.03M units vs consensus — $TSLA, $QQQ,

Material events to watch — MACRO

Material events to watch — COMPANY

At a glance — Key events:
• Softer US CPI at 2.7% YoY steepened curves and supported growth equities, with 10Y -5 bps w/w — $SPY, $TLT
• Venezuela “blockade” headlines and PDVSA disruptions left Brent -1.1% w/w and WTI -1.3% — $CL=F, $XLE
• TikTok USDS $14B JV talk lifted $ORCL +6.6% Friday, boosting software beta — $ORCL, $IGV
• VIX fell 11.6% Friday to 14.91, capping a 14.9–18.0 range week — $SPY, $VIX
• China activity and home prices missed, pressuring EM FX/equities as US dollar rose 0.2% — $FXI, $DXY

Equities were broadly flat but factor-rotating. The S&P 500 gained 0.1% w/w and Nasdaq 0.5%, while Russell 2000 fell 0.9%, with Consumer Discretionary up 1.36% and Energy down 2.92%. TikTok USDS headlines implying a $14B JV and a 15% Oracle stake drove $ORCL up 6.6% on Friday, reinforcing mega-cap/software leadership as VIX dropped 11.6% to 14.91. EM risk lagged as China November industrial output rose only 4.8% YoY and retail sales 1.3% YoY, alongside a 0.4% MoM and 2.4% YoY fall in new home prices.

Macro was dominated by disinflation and benign supply. UST 2Y and 10Y yields fell 5 bps w/w to 3.49% and 4.15%, with the 2s10s spread near 67 bps as a soft US CPI print at 2.7% YoY and wage cooling in the +64k NFP report pulled forward Fed-easing expectations. A solid 5Y TIPS auction (BTC 2.62, high rate 1.433% vs 1.438% WI) contained term premium and helped VIX retest 14.9. Oil weakened, with WTI at $56.52 and Brent at $60.47, despite China’s estimated 12.1 mbpd Q4 crude imports and 1.1 mbpd stock-builds, leaving Energy down 2.9% for the week.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week centers on US inflation, growth mix, and Treasury supply in thin holiday liquidity. The key macro print is Tuesday’s Personal Income & Outlays/PCE (materiality 90): a core PCE ≥0.3% m/m would challenge the current 2.7% CPI disinflation narrative and could push $TLT lower and $DXY higher via a higher real-rate path. Auctions matter as well: a 2Y tail ≥2 bps on Monday (score 86) or a 5Y bid-to-cover ≤2.2x on Tuesday (84) would signal weak demand and lift term premia. Wednesday’s 7Y auction (indirects ≤60%) and EIA oil/gas surprises (±6M bbl, ±50 Bcf vs 5y avg) can amplify moves in $CL=F, $NG=F, and $XLE given reduced depth.

Company Look

Company-specific catalysts are light and liquidity-driven. Tuesday’s $LMNR Q4 earnings (post-mkt, GM deviations ≥2 ppt vs consensus) primarily reprice a single small-cap, but guidance on margins and agri/real-estate exposure can signal how softer inflation and rates filter into niche cyclicals. The rest of the calendar is about market microstructure: early closes for US equities at 13:00 ET and bonds at 14:00 ET on Wednesday, a full US market closure Thursday, and Friday’s reopen. Shortened cash hours (equity session length cut ≥2.5 “units” vs prior) and a 0-hours closure on Thursday raise gap risk, thin order books, and potential yield gaps ≥3 bps in $TLT/$IEF, making futures and FX the main risk-transfer channels.

Material events to watch

At a glance — Key events:
• Curve steepened as 10Y rose to 4.19% while 2Y fell to 3.52%; growth beta lagged — $TLT, $SPY
• AVGO −11.4% Friday drove Tech −2.3% w/w; semis underperformed broader indices — $SOXX, $QQQ
• Fed cut 25 bps to 3.50–3.75% while VIX ranged 14.85–17.85; risk premia reset — $SPY, $VIX
• WTI −0.3% w/w despite a 2.51mn bbl EIA crude draw; products built — $CL=F, $XLE

Rates and macro policy dominated the backdrop. The Fed’s 25 bp cut to 3.50–3.75%, combined with the NY Fed’s planned ~$40bn/month T-bill purchases, kept front-end yields anchored even as the 10Y rose 5 bps to 4.19%. A 3‑year auction at 4.198% with 2.54× bid‑to‑cover and 63.99% indirects reinforced demand in the 2–3Y sector, helping the 2Y fall 4 bps to 3.52% and steepening 2s10s by about 9 bps. Jobless claims at 236k added growth‑risk chatter but did not fully override the policy‑easing signal.

Equities saw a factor rotation rather than an outright crash. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% while the Nasdaq fell 1.6%, contrasted with Russell 2000 up 1.2%, as Financials gained 2.3% and Tech lost 2.3% on the week. AVGO’s 11.4% Friday drop and AI‑margin fears weighed on $SOXX and $QQQ despite Anthropic’s ~$21bn chip order extending AI capex visibility. Volatility spiked intraday Friday (VIX high 17.85) before closing at 15.74. In energy, a 2.51mn‑bbl EIA crude draw and 177 Bcf gas withdrawal supported upstream, but gasoline (+3.96mn bbl) and distillate (+1.17mn bbl) builds capped refiners.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro tape clusters around U.S. labor, inflation, and supply. The delayed November Employment Situation and October payroll revisions (materiality_score 92) share the Tuesday 08:30 ET window with October Advance Retail Sales (score 80), so a ≥0.15M NFP surprise or ≥0.6% m/m sales deviation could quickly reprice growth and the cuts path, moving $TLT and $DXY. Wednesday’s 20Y reopening (score 86) will test term‑premium appetite; a ≥2 bp tail vs WI would challenge this week’s 2s10s +9 bp steepening. Thursday’s CPI (score 94) is the key macro pivot: a ≥0.3pp core surprise would likely dominate both USD and long‑end direction, with EIA crude and gas prints providing energy‑beta and inflation‑tail reinforcement.

Company Look

Company catalysts are concentrated but macro‑sensitive. In housing, $LEN’s Tuesday post‑market earnings (score 72) will show whether margins and demand still support $XHB after the Fed’s third 25 bp cut. Staples tone comes from $GIS Wednesday pre‑market (score 70), where EPS and GM outcomes versus $1.02 consensus will test pricing power in $XLP. Semis leadership faces a key read with $MU Wednesday post‑market (score 84); revenue vs $12.5B guidance and GM could either validate or challenge this week’s AVGO‑driven AI‑margin reset in $SOXX. Thursday brings read‑across on services ($CTAS), data/financials ($FDS), transports ($FDX), and discretionary ($NKE), with pre‑/post‑market timing shaping gap risk for $XLI, $XLF, $IYT, and $XLY.

Material events to watch

At a glance — Key events (3-5 bullets; each ≤22 words; one number + assets):
• Netflix–WBD ~$83B deal drove media dispersion; WBD >+6%, NFLX -~3%, $XLC beat $SPX — $NFLX, $WBD, $XLC
• ISM manufacturing 48.2 vs services 52.6 steepened 2s10s by ~4 bps; DXY -0.5% — $DXY, $IEF, $TLT
• Initial claims 191k vs 220k cons.; Russell 2000 +0.8% and CDX IG -2 bps — $IWM, $HYG
• WTI +3.1% to ~$60.1, inventories +0.6M bbl; energy +~1.4% — $CL_F, $XLE

Equities drifted higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.9% and Russell 2000 0.8%, as investors leaned into growth and cyclicals. Mixed ISM data (manufacturing 48.2, services 52.6) and an 89% implied probability of a 25 bp Fed cut kept the “slow goods, steady services” narrative intact. That backdrop nudged 2Y and 10Y yields up ~5 bps and ~9 bps, steepening 2s10s by ~4 bps, while investment-grade spreads tightened ~2 bps and VIX slipped to 15.4.

Macro and policy signals were nuanced. China’s private manufacturing PMI at 49.9 versus 50.5 consensus undercut EM cyclicals, while U.S. initial claims at 191k vs ~220k and delayed NFP reinforced a still-tight but debated labor picture. Oil markets balanced supply headlines—OPEC+ maintaining roughly 3.24 mb/d in cuts and a 0.6M bbl U.S. inventory build—against Kazakhstan-related disruptions, leaving WTI up 3.1% and Brent 1.1%. Regulatory actions, including FTC conditions on the Boeing–Spirit deal and DOJ-required power-plant divestitures for Constellation–Calpine, reduced some deal-risk premia without fully settling earnings trajectories.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro focus is squarely on the Fed. The FOMC decision and SEP on Wednesday (materiality 99) will test current pricing of near‑term cuts; a ≥25 bp tail versus futures could reprice the curve, with $ZN=F and $DXY most exposed and knock‑on effects for $SPY. Ahead of that, the delayed Employment Cost Index (materiality 88) and Thursday’s PPI (materiality 88) will refine views on wage and pipeline inflation; ≥0.3 ppt surprises versus consensus would challenge the “gentle disinflation” view and push real yields higher. JOLTS and the 10Y auction (bid‑to‑cover ≤2.3x) round out labor and term‑premium risk for rates, USD and energy‑linked breakevens.

Company Look

Earnings skew toward software, semis and discretionary leaders. Adobe, Oracle and Synopsys (materiality 78–82) report post‑market Wednesday, with revenue surprises of ≥$0.2–0.3B and AI‑linked ARR/backlog growth likely to steer $IGV, $QQQ and $SOXX factor rotations. On Thursday, Broadcom’s print (revenue surprise threshold $1B) will be a key read on custom AI‑chip demand and VMware integration, with implications for semi supply chains and growth‑vs‑value performance. Lululemon (GM deviation ≥1 ppt) will update premium discretionary and margin resilience, while Academy Sports & Outdoors earlier in the week offers a smaller but relevant read on goods demand and inventory discipline for $XRT.

Material events to watch

At a glance — Key events:
• Fed cut odds rose toward 87%; 10Y -7 bps, DXY -0.7%, S&P 500 +3.7% — $SPY $DXY
• Dell/Autodesk AI guidance beats supported tech; Nasdaq +4.9% vs Russell 2000 +5.5% — $QQQ $IWM
• EIA crude build +2.8M bbl, imports at 11-week high pressured XLE despite Brent near $63/bbl — $CL=F $XLE
• CME outage froze futures for ~11 hours; VIX ended 16.35 with limited lasting damage — $ES=F $NQ=F
• DXY slid to ~99.44, its worst week since July, as December cut odds hit ~87% — $DXY $GLD

Equities traded a clean “rates down, growth up” pattern. Fed commentary and softer U.S. retail, PPI and confidence pushed December cut odds into the ~80–87% range, taking 2Y yields down ~4 bps and 10Y about 7 bps. The S&P 500 gained 3.7%, with the Nasdaq up 4.9% and Russell 2000 5.5%, as lower discount rates supported long-duration tech and SMID. AI- and software-linked beats from Dell and Autodesk, plus still-firm U.S. jobless claims at 216k and 0.9% core capex growth, reinforced a soft-landing narrative.

The dollar weakened as policy expectations shifted. DXY fell 0.7% to about 99.46 and roughly 0.61% on the week toward 99.44, its largest drop since July, helped by Canada’s 2.6% Q3 GDP beat and euro-area inflation around 2.1%. In energy, an unexpected +2.8M-barrel U.S. crude build and 11‑week high imports undercut WTI even as Brent held above $63/bbl; Ukraine’s later strike on Black Sea flows (over 1% of seaborne supply) added upside risk into the weekend. A rare ~11‑hour CME outage briefly disrupted futures hedging, but VIX finished at 16.35 and broader credit stayed calm.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Macro focus shifts to how incoming data refine the already-high odds of a December cut. The most material is Friday’s Personal Income & Outlays report (core PCE; materiality_score 92), where a ±0.1ppt m/m surprise versus consensus could move 10Y yields and $ZN=F meaningfully. ISM manufacturing and services (both ±1 index‑point thresholds; scores 82 and 80) will test how much growth has slowed beneath the equity rally. ADP jobs, weekly claims (±0.02M vs consensus), and state JOLTS round out the labor picture ahead of the Fed. EIA’s weekly crude print (±5M bbl vs 5‑year average) and the 10Y reopening size (≥$2B surprise; score 88) are key for term premia, $CL=F, $XLE and the dollar.

Company Look

Next week’s company tape is retail- and software-heavy, with read-throughs for consumer health and growth valuations. On Wednesday, $DLTR pre‑market earnings (≥$0.1B sales surprise) and post‑market $CRM and $SNOW (≥$0.3B and ≥$0.05B revenue thresholds) will show whether cloud/AI spend is broadening beyond this week’s Dell/Autodesk strength. Thursday’s pre‑market $DG and $KR (≥0.5ppt gross‑margin or $0.5B sales surprise) will color low-end trade-down, food inflation and staples pricing power. Post‑market, $LULU and $DOCU (≥$0.1B / $0.05B sales or billings beats) will help gauge premium discretionary demand and the durability of high-multiple SaaS, with potential gap risk around guidance.

Material events to watch

At a glance — Key events:
• S&P 500 -1.9% and Nasdaq -2.7% as NVDA volatility and AI de-rating hit tech; DXY +0.9% — $SPY $QQQ
• 2Y -10 bps to 3.52%, 10Y -8 bps to 4.06% as Fed cut odds near 90–95% — $TLT $ZN=F
• WTI -3.6% to $57.81 and Brent -2.8% as demand worries outweigh supply risks — $CL=F $XLE

Equities sold off with a clear growth tilt: the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Nasdaq 2.7%, while Russell 2000 slipped 0.8%. Expensive AI and semiconductor names saw pressure despite NVIDIA printing $57.0B Q3 revenue and guiding Q4 near $65.0B, as investors questioned sustainability and multiples. Alphabet’s >5% weekly gain and INTU’s $3.34 EPS beat helped Communication Services and some software cushion the decline. High-yield OAS widened about 10 bps to 3.17%, consistent with risk-off and a modest de-risking in credit.

Rates and macro signaled slowing but not collapse. The 2Y yield fell 10 bps and the 10Y 8 bps, while the 10Y real yield was roughly flat at 1.86%, implying easing expectations driven more by Fed communication than inflation. Fed officials, including Waller and Williams, pointed to a possible 25 bps December cut, with futures showing roughly 90–95% odds. Yet data were noisy: the delayed September payroll report showed 119k jobs and 4.4% unemployment, the October jobs report was canceled, and November flash PMIs saw manufacturing slip to 51.9 while services held up. This combination reinforced “rates down, USD up, growth under pressure.”

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro calendar is dense despite the holiday-shortened window. The key focus is Wednesday’s US core PCE (materiality 92), where an absolute surprise of ≥0.2 ppt versus consensus on the m/m print would directly reset the Fed path and long-end yields via the inflation_trend→Fed_path→UST_curve channel, impacting $TLT and $DXY. Ahead of that, Tuesday’s delayed PPI/retail sales (materiality 90; |core PPI surprise| ≥0.3%) will help fill the shutdown data gap and could shift cut probabilities if spending is weak. The second estimate of Q3 real GDP (materiality 85; revision ≥0.5 ppt) rounds out the growth narrative, while front-end auctions and claims mainly test demand and slowdown fears rather than independently driving trend.

Company Look

Company catalysts are concentrated on Tuesday and skewed to China internet, EVs, and semis. Pre-market, $NIO and $BABA earnings (materiality 74 and 82) will steer sentiment in $KWEB: top-line surprises of ≥$0.3B for NIO and ≥$1.0B for BABA, plus margin commentary, inform China consumption and growth-premium narratives. For US sectors, $ANF and $SJM guidance will color discretionary versus staples resilience, particularly via holiday comp-sales percentages and organic sales growth relative to consensus by ≥2 ppt. In semis, $ADI (GM surprise ≥150 bps vs guidance) will provide a read on industrial/auto chip demand and $SOXX positioning, while $HPQ post-market shapes value-vs-growth dispersion through EPS and PC-unit trends.

Material events to watch

At a glance — Key events:
• Policy relief cut risk premia after a 43‑day shutdown; assets: SPY, IWM.
• Heavy Treasury refunding ≈ $125B; 10Y +6 bps — assets: ZN=F, TNX.
• Seaborne oil outages remove ~0.4 mb/d prompt supply, supporting front-month crude — assets: CL=F, XLE.

The policy pivot that ended the 43‑day shutdown and the retroactive food‑tariff rollback reduced visible tail risk, nudging DXY down ~0.3% while 10‑year yields rose ~6 bps. Markets absorbed substantial Treasury coupon supply (~$125B across 3y/10y/30y), lifting term premia and pressuring long-duration multiples even as equity indices were essentially flat (S&P +0.1% w/w). The Fed’s final IORB/primary credit rule formalized administered rates (IORB 3.90%, primary credit 4.00%), anchoring short-end mechanics.

Corporate and commodity drivers reinforced the mixed tape. Cisco’s FY26 revenue guide to up to $61B and AMD’s $100B data‑center ambition kept large-cap tech sentiment supported despite Nasdaq weakness; meanwhile energy saw supply shocks (Lukoil/West Qurna‑2 and Novorossiysk shutdowns) and an EIA natural‑gas build of +45 Bcf, keeping front-month crude and refiners sensitive to prompt differentials. Volatility and credit stayed orderly (VIX ~19.8; HY OAS ~309 bps). Informational only — not investment advice.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

FOMC minutes (Wed) and a U.S. 20‑year auction (Wed 13:00 ET) are the top rate‑market levers: the minutes can reprice 2‑year expectations (threshold: 2y move ≥10 bps) and drive front‑end volatility, while a weak 20Y bid‑to‑cover (≤2.4x threshold) would lift term premia and long yields, pressuring long-duration equities (SPY, QQQ) and supporting TLT/IEF moves. Eurozone HICP and UK CPI (Wed) can nudge global curves and the dollar (thresholds ±0.2%); EIA crude stocks (Wed 10:30 ET, ≥3M‑barrel surprise) remain the key trigger for CL=F and XLE moves.

Company Look

Earnings cluster centers on mega‑cap semiconductors and large retailers. NVDA’s post‑market print (Wed post‑mkt) is the highest single risk (rev threshold ±$2.0B vs ~$54.8B consensus) and can gap SOXX/SMH and market leadership; HD/TGT/WMT are pre‑market events that set retail/DIY breadth risk and can reweight XLY/XHB intraday (HD rev shock threshold $1.0B; WMT $5.0B). Retail/consumer prints carry gap risk into opens; NVDA after‑hours can reset index exposures for Thursday session.

Material events to watch

At a glance — Key events:
• Treasury refunding sized 3Y $58B / 10Y $42B / 30Y $25B — $TLT/$IEF/$SPY
• ISM Services 52.4; ADP +42,000 private jobs — $SPY/$DXY
• EIA gas +33 Bcf (3,915 Bcf total); WTI −2.0% w/w — $NG=F/$CL=F

U.S. risk assets slipped (S&P −1.6%, NDX −3.1%) as AI-capex headlines concentrated returns: AMZN’s ~$38B OpenAI/AWS pact lifted AMZN (+4.4% Mon) but semis underperformed (NVDA −4.3% Fri). Rates were directionless: 10Y ~0 bps on the week while issuance and refunding composition (3Y $58B / 10Y $42B / 30Y $25B) emerged as a primary supply signal likely to affect term premia and long-end yields into November auctions.

Policy and supply signals drove commodity and bank narratives: EIA inventory flows (gas +33 Bcf; crude/product builds/draws mixed) pressured prompt NatGas but tightened distillate/gasoline cracks, while the Fed’s LFI rule easing nudged bank capital-return optionality higher. Cross-asset channels were clear: fiscal/auction sizing → term premia → TLT/10Y; services/inflation prints → front-end Fed expectations → DXY/Treasuries; inventory/outage news → energy time spreads and refiners.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s primary rate/FX drivers are CPI (Thu pre-mkt, materiality 90; core_mom threshold 0.4%) and the 30Y reopening auction (Thu 13:00, materiality 88; tail_bp threshold 2 bps). A core CPI print ≥0.4% would lift real-yield repricing and dollar strength, pressuring long-duration equities and boosting TLT volatility; a sizable tail at the 30Y auction (>2 bps) would raise term premia and steepen local curves, again weighing on duration. Secondary drivers: EIA crude (Thu 10:30; 5.0 Bbl abs_dev) and PPI (Fri pre-mkt; core_mom 0.4%) will steer energy breakevens and input-cost expectations.

Company Look

Earnings/flows that can move sector leadership include AMAT (Thu post-mkt; rev threshold $6.7B) and CSCO (Wed post-mkt; EPS $1.00). AMAT’s revenue/GM outlook will frame WFE-driven AI capex for $SOXX; a miss below $6.7B risks downgrading semis. CSCO EPS and order commentary will signal networking demand for AI deployments. Pre-mkt reports (DIS, JD, BABA) create gap risk for $SPY/$KWEB; TSM’s Mon monthly sales ($6.5B threshold) act as a foundry run-rate proxy for core semis exposure.

Material events to watch

U.S. rates and the dollar dominated price action despite a late-week Fed move: benchmark 10Y yields ended the week near 3.89% (+10 bps) while the 2Y finished about 3.70% (+12 bps), leaving the 2s10s around +19 bps. That came alongside a DXY gain of 0.9% to 99.80 and VIX trading 15.6–18.5. Policy headlines mattered — the Fed cut the funds range 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% and announced a Dec 1 QT wind‑down — but sizable Treasury supply estimates ($590B Q4 marketable) and front‑end volatility kept term premia and USD upside pressure, transmitting to lower commodity prices (WTI ~$60.98, Brent ~$64.77) and mixed risk‑asset returns.

Policy and trade shifts also reshaped sector flows. A U.S.–China truce and a one‑year pause on rare‑earth export controls reduced near‑term supply risk for magnet/EV chains while OPEC+ signaled a modest December increase of ~137 kb/d then a Q1 pause, limiting oil downside. Corporate news guided equity dispersion: Apple reported $102.5B revenue and Amazon raised Q4 sales/operating income guidance (Q4 sales $206–213bn; AWS +20% YoY), while Berkshire’s cash stockpile (~$381.7B) and multiple M&A/activist bids (e.g., Novartis’ $72/share Avidity offer) lifted deal‑flow alpha into biotech, semis, and industrials. Net: macro rates/FX set cross‑asset backdrop; policy and large corporate prints supplied idiosyncratic sector drivers with clear numeric anchors (10Y 3.89%; Fed −25 bp; OPEC+ +137 kb/d).

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Mon–Fri macro prints (Treasury refunding, ISM PMI, JOLTS, ISM Services, EIA crude, FOMC minutes, jobless claims, nat‑gas storage, payrolls) will reprice term premia and USD direction established this week. Large Q4 refunding details (Mon) could push the 10Y toward or above 4.30% if supply surprises on the upside; an ISM/services beat (PMI ≥50.5; Prices ≥55) or stronger-than-expected NFP (≥175k) would sustain dollar and yields, while a crude draw (Δ ≤ −2.0M bbl) would tighten oil and support XLE.

Company Look

Earnings cadence (ON, PLTR, UBER, AMD, MCD, QCOM, HOOD, ABNB, COP) will provide cross‑sector impulses. Semiconductor reads (ON, AMD, QCOM) will update EV/SiC and AI/handset demand; beats above the listed thresholds (ON rev ≥ $2.1B; AMD GM ≥52%; QCOM EPS ≥ $2.85) should lift SOXX and related suppliers, while energy names (COP prod ≥2.35 mboe/d) and travel (ABNB rev ≥ $4.4B) will drive industry index rotations.

Next Week Material Moves to Watch

- Mon 08:30 ET — Treasury Quarterly Refunding — 10Y ≥ 4.30% → $SPY, $TLT, $DXY.
- Wed 10:30 ET — EIA crude inventories — Crude Δ ≤ -2.0M bbl → $CL=F, $XLE.
- Fri 08:30 ET — Employment Situation — NFP ≥ 175k; AHE ≥ 0.3% → $SPY, $DXY.