U.S. stocks finished the week ended Friday, August 28 (August 29 was Saturday) modestly higher, led by large-cap growth as small caps lagged. The S&P 500 added 0.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%, with the AI complex stabilizing after Nvidia’s results and outlook again clearing expectations, keeping the index-level tape supported even as breadth stayed uneven. Macro kept rates in the driver’s seat: a July inflation update ran a touch hot (the Fed’s preferred gauge at 3.7% y/y) alongside a steady Q2 growth revision (1.5%), reinforcing “higher for longer” pricing. The inflection came late-week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks pushed front-end hike odds higher, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar and pressuring gold into the close.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Read more

Next Week: Two-sided tape: inflation prints + Treasury refunding collide with AI-infrastructure earnings from Cisco and Applied Materials.

Weekly Setup

U.S. risk assets opened August with a sharp rebound: the S&P 500 gained 3.6% and the Nasdaq surged 5.2% for the week ending Friday, August 7 (the “Aug 8” label falls on Saturday). Big Tech and AI “picks-and-shovels” did most of the lifting as Treasury yields retreated, capped by a downside surprise in July payrolls (employers reportedly cut 23,000 jobs), which cooled near-term Fed-hike anxiety. Volatility deflated (VIX to 14.90), while a weaker dollar and heightened oil sensitivity tied to Iran headlines kept cross-asset positioning dynamic. In single names, AI bellwethers (including Nvidia and Broadcom) supported index momentum, and Airbnb’s post-earnings jump added to the pro-cyclical tape into the close.

---

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

What Failed

Ideas where the setup activated but price action rejected the thesis or invalidation hit.

Theme Check-in

These are the recurring market themes that had enough evidence to review this week. The goal is to track whether the framework was reinforced, weakened, reversed, expired, or left unresolved.

Accountability Takeaway

AI fundamentals stayed supportive, but execution was dominated by post-earnings tape. Several “beat” triggers were immediately sold, while overly tight revenue gates prevented participation even when price moved. Tighten trigger design and make day-one price action decisive.

Day-one tape is the arbiter

ANET met $3.036B revenue/49.9% op margin but opened $210.19 and closed $197.31 (-6.13%), tripping the down-close stop; AMD and BKNG also stopped (-0.50%, -0.34%). PLTR showed the opposite: +12.07% day-one and still +7.42% by day three. Treat day-one rejection as a hard exit; predefine profit-taking after >10% gaps.

Set gates away from noise

CDNS printed EPS $2.11 but revenue $1.584B missed our $1.60B gate by ~$16M, and ON’s $1.6035B missed $1.635B; both became Stale while prices moved. Use triggers aligned with reported precision (ranges/relative beats vs guidance) so the view gets tested, not filtered out by consensus-adjacent thresholds.

Theme conviction and single-name activation are separate problems; this week, tape and trigger construction—not fundamentals—decided outcomes.

Next Week Setup

Next week is a rates-and-growth stress test: July inflation data hit midweek, the Treasury runs the core refunding auctions, and key AI-infrastructure reporters reset forward demand narratives. If CPI/PPI cool while auctions clear cleanly, duration and cyclicals can run; any upside inflation or weak bids can tighten financial conditions fast.

Section takeaway

If CPI cooperates and auctions clear, the AI-infrastructure earnings cluster can extend the rally; if not, expect a fast rates-led risk reset.

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. stocks finished lower for the week into Friday, July 24, with the S&P 500 off 0.6% and the Nasdaq down 2.1% as mega-cap tech broke down after earnings sharpened debate over AI payback and spending discipline. Defensive leadership showed up: energy and utilities outperformed while consumer discretionary and communication services lagged. Macro and geopolitics ran in parallel: a surge in Middle East tensions and Red Sea shipping risks briefly pushed Brent above $100 before a late-week pullback, while an upside surprise in labor tightness (jobless claims at the lowest since 1969) kept the rates backdrop firm. The 10-year yield ended about 14 bps higher on the week and the dollar strengthened, tightening financial conditions even as volatility eased by Friday.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. stocks finished lower for the week ended Friday, July 17, with leadership narrowing as a drawdown in AI-linked megacaps and semiconductors pulled the Nasdaq down nearly 3% and pushed volatility higher. Early-week support came from a cooler June CPI print (and follow-through in wholesale inflation), which helped cap yields, but the macro tailwind faded as crude jumped on escalating U.S.-Iran conflict risk and broader risk appetite deteriorated into Friday’s selloff. Financials held up better as big banks kicked off earnings season with mostly solid results, while markets also parsed Chair Warsh’s first Capitol Hill testimony for clues on how the Fed will weigh cooling inflation against energy-driven upside risks. The week closed with equities lower, VIX higher, and rates modestly easier.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. equities ground higher through the July 6–10 window, with the S&P 500 up about 1.2% and the Nasdaq up 1.7% as the AI complex stabilized after an early-week wobble and mega-cap tech resumed leadership. Volatility bled lower into Friday, leaving the VIX down roughly 7% on the week. Rates were the main cross-asset headwind: the 10-year yield rose about 9 bps to 4.56%, keeping financial conditions firm even as the dollar was little changed and gold slipped marginally. Macro tone was shaped by the Fed’s July 8 minutes, which underscored a committee still split on the inflation path and the timing of any easing. The defining single-stock catalyst was SK hynix’s blockbuster U.S. debut, reinforcing semis as the market’s primary risk-on transmission.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Other Marks

Not triggered, partial, or otherwise untested setups.

Theme Check-in

Read more

Weekly Setup

A holiday-shortened tape (stocks shut July 3) finished with the S&P 500 essentially flat on Thursday but up roughly 1.8% on the week as breadth improved even while prior winners in AI and semiconductors slid again. The Nasdaq ended up about 2% for the week but gave back ground late as chip and AI-linked names extended a multi-session pullback, while the Dow pushed to another record. Macro was the week’s hinge: the June jobs report on July 2 printed a sharp payroll slowdown, trimming late-July hike odds and helping keep volatility contained. Cross-asset signals were mixed—gold jumped and the dollar slipped, but the 10-year yield ended higher versus the prior week—leaving equities leaning on rotation rather than multiple expansion.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

What Failed

Ideas where the setup activated but price action rejected the thesis or invalidation hit.

Other Marks

Not triggered, partial, or otherwise untested setups.

Theme Check-in

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. equities finished the week lower, with the S&P 500 down 2.0% and the Nasdaq off 4.6% as the AI/mega-cap complex de-risked and leadership broadened toward cyclicals and financials even as the Dow rose. The macro backdrop was less hostile: May PCE landed in line on core (3.4% y/y) but stayed uncomfortably firm on the headline, while Treasuries rallied, pulling the 10-year yield down about 7 bps to ~4.37%. The dollar firmed and crude gave back much of its Iran-war premium, easing near-term inflation anxiety. A key micro catalyst was Micron’s record quarter and upbeat outlook, which briefly steadied semis, while Fed stress-test clearance kept buyback expectations in play for banks.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. stocks finished higher in the Juneteenth-shortened week (cash equities closed Friday), with the S&P 500 up 0.9% and the Nasdaq +2.4% as mega-cap tech/AI rebounded and defensives lagged. The defining macro cross-currents were (1) the U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, which pushed crude sharply lower and helped loosen the inflation impulse that had been pressuring risk assets, and (2) the June FOMC hold at 3.50%–3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, read as a hawkish pause via projections and messaging, lifting the dollar. Rates ultimately eased at the long end into week-end (10Y -4 bps) while volatility fell, as oil’s retreat tempered near-term tail-risk pricing.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. equities clawed back from the prior week’s semiconductor shock, finishing modestly higher as leadership broadened beyond megacap tech: cyclicals and defensives both worked, with materials and financials leading while communication services lagged. The macro tape stayed tricky—May CPI ran at 4.2% y/y (0.5% m/m) and May PPI accelerated to 6.5% y/y (1.1% m/m), keeping “higher-for-longer” risk in play even as the core impulse looked less aggressive. Still, the rates impulse turned supportive with the 10-year yield down on the week, the dollar slightly softer, and oil retreating on renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran path to more supply. The defining catalyst was SpaceX’s blockbuster public debut, reinforcing risk appetite into Friday’s close.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

What Failed

Ideas where the setup activated but price action rejected the thesis or invalidation hit.

Theme Check-in

These are the recurring market themes that had enough evidence to review this week. The goal is to track whether the framework was reinforced, weakened, reversed, expired, or left unresolved.

Accountability Takeaway

This week separated three problems: activation vs follow-through, gap risk on event opens, and theme-driven volatility that mean-reverts quickly (WTI ~$93.52 to $86.30; VIX 23.34).

Tape beats the beat

HPE cleared the KPI gate (rev $10.678B, EPS $0.79) yet opened 6/2 at $63.06 and closed $56.15 (-10.96%), extending to -14.86% by 6/4. Treat earnings longs as price-action trades: pre-define gap-stop logic and day-1 vs multi-day exits (CRDO +4.54% day-1, then gave it back by day-3).

Avoid cliff gates

Multiple setups graded Stale on narrow single-metric misses (CRWD ending ARR $5.51B vs $5.55B), even as the next open moved +6.68%. Binary gates preserve discipline, but they also create “no position in the move.” Add buffers/tiers (near-miss sizing) or a separate momentum plan; don’t backfit from post-event rallies.

Keep gates objective, but pair them with tape filters and pre-committed exits; themes are exposures only when price confirms.

Next Week Setup

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. stocks broke a long run of weekly gains as rates repriced higher and megacap tech unwound into Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.6% on the week and the Nasdaq slid 4.7%, with the heaviest pressure in AI/semis after a sharp Friday downdraft. The catalyst was May payrolls: 172,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.3% unemployment rate, a read that revived “higher-for-longer” pricing and drove the 10-year yield up about 8 bps on the week. The dollar strengthened and gold sold off as real-rate pressure built, while volatility reset higher, with VIX finishing above 21. The week’s tape read as a tightening of financial conditions rather than an earnings problem, with positioning doing the rest.

The technology sector bore the brunt of Friday’s market downturn, particularly the previously high-flying equities within the AI supply chain. As capital aggressively rotated out of these heavily crowded trades, it triggered a pronounced “stampede effect.” The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) recorded massive trading volume, reaching a historical high of $71.4 billion in turnover.

To us - massive volume reflects immense market divergence. This type of exhaustive sell-off is fundamentally unsustainable; once the divergence dissipates, the market is poised to resume its upward trajectory. Generally, the higher the trading volume, the more rapidly this divergence is resolved.

Does the broader market still possess upward momentum, or will this catalyst plunge equities into a protracted bear market? The answers to these two pivotal questions will dictate our strategic positioning moving forward — specifically, whether we should be buying the dip or selling into the rallies.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas.

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. stocks extended the record run through a holiday-shortened week, led by mega-cap tech, AI infrastructure, and a renewed bid for software. The setup was helped by a friendlier rates tape: Treasuries rallied after April inflation and spending data kept the disinflation story alive, while oil softened into month-end and reduced the immediate inflation impulse. The week’s key shift was not just that risk assets rose — it was that the leadership broadened inside the AI trade. Dell reset AI server expectations, Snowflake reinforced data infrastructure demand, and beaten-down SaaS names started to recover as investors questioned whether AI disruption had been over-priced.

Public Repricing Map

These are the three repricing maps we carry from this week into next week. The full trade marks, Views Ledger, and next-week trigger map continue below for Pro members.

1. AI broadened beyond semis — the market is repricing the full stack

The week’s AI signal was not just “chips are strong.” It was broader: Dell reset AI server expectations, Snowflake’s AWS commitment reinforced data infrastructure demand, and beaten-down SaaS names started to recover as investors questioned whether AI disruption had been over-priced. The market is starting to look beyond pure GPU scarcity and price a wider AI stack: servers, memory, data platforms, cybersecurity, usage-based software, and workflow infrastructure. That is a healthier setup than a one-stock or one-layer AI trade, but it also raises the bar: the next phase has to prove which parts of the stack can convert AI usage into durable revenue, not just narrative exposure.

2. The rally has earnings support, but the tape is no longer clean

This week’s rally was not just blind FOMO. The bullish case still has an earnings backbone: forward estimates are rising, AI capex is flowing into corporate revenue, and major indexes continued to make highs with yields moving lower. That is why shorting strength simply because the market is up has been a bad trade. But the analyst layer also flags the problem: positioning is getting crowded, semis and momentum are no longer clean contrarian longs, and liquidity can make small shocks feel larger. The right read is not “the rally is fake.” It is that the rally can continue, but the next drawdown may be sharper because the same names, factors, and themes are carrying too much of the tape.

3. Macro relief helped risk, but this was not a clean all-clear

The macro tape gave equities enough relief to keep climbing: oil fell sharply on de-escalation hopes, core inflation showed some sequential cooling, and Treasuries rallied into month-end. That combination reduced the immediate pressure on equity multiples. But it was not a clean all-clear. The analyst note still points to a consumer that is spending partly by drawing down savings, a capex picture that looks softer beneath the headline durable-goods number, and a Fed that can stay verbally hawkish even if it does not actually hike. The market got a friendlier rates tape this week, but the growth/inflation mix is still unresolved.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full

Read more

Weekly Setup

U.S. equities finished the May 18–22 window higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.9% on the week and small caps leading. The tape spent most sessions digesting Iran-war headlines through the oil channel, then firmed as crude pulled back and bond yields eased into Friday. Risk appetite was supported by another round of upside earnings surprises, helping the market stay close to recent record territory into the holiday weekend.

Cross-asset pricing revolved around energy and rates. Oil’s sharp intraday reversals fed into inflation expectations and kept the long end twitchy, but late-week crude weakness coincided with easier Treasury yields and a steadier dollar. Leadership broadened beyond mega-cap growth, with the Dow and Russell 2000 outperforming on the week. In macro, the May flash PMI held in expansion but flagged a price surge, reinforcing the market’s “growth okay, inflation sticky” framing.

The week’s key catalyst was Nvidia’s results, which reaffirmed the AI capex cycle and helped stabilize the semiconductor complex after rate-driven jitters. Retail and enterprise software prints also mattered: Home Depot topped expectations and reaffirmed guidance, while Ross Stores, Workday, and Zoom were among the notable upside reporters into Friday. Policy was the other pillar—minutes from the April 28–29 FOMC meeting signaled a majority willing to consider further tightening if inflation persists, keeping the equity multiple tied to yields.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

Theme Check-in

These are the recurring market themes that had enough evidence to review this week. The goal is to track whether the framework was reinforced, weakened, reversed, expired, or left unresolved.

Accountability Takeaway

This week separated “screened beats” from “tradable follow-through.” Several triggers fired but the tape rejected them immediately, while overly tight metric gates created untested calls despite large post-earnings moves and mixed theme-level confirmation.

Tape can veto beats

A trigger firing wasn’t sufficient when day-one positioning unwound. $NXT met the EPS/revenue gates but closed -8.62% on entry day (149.23→136.37), forcing the rule-based exit. Same dynamic in $RBC (-6.70% open-to-close) and $CEG (-4.95%) despite clearing fundamentals—price-action needs to be a second gate.

Avoid cliff-edge gates

Hard thresholds produced “stale” outcomes and missed participation. $NVDA revenue cleared but EPS was 1.87 vs 1.90; $CSCO printed 1.06 vs a 1.08 gate—both no-trades despite big reactions. Tighten definitions (GAAP vs non-GAAP) and add a near-miss protocol (e.g., $HIMS 608.1m vs 625m) so we’re not binary around small deltas.

Use fundamentals to qualify, then require tape confirmation; themes still need price proof (USO -5.61%, AI breadth mixed).

Next Week Setup

Memorial Day closes U.S. cash markets Monday, compressing liquidity into four sessions. The week’s real risk is a Thursday morning macro cluster that can reprice the front end fast, followed by key after-close results in enterprise software and big-box retail that can swing broader sentiment and factor leadership.

Section takeaway

Keep risk tight into Thursday’s PCE/GDP print; auctions and two heavyweight after-close reports can amplify moves in thin, holiday-shaped liquidity.

Go deeper -
For intraday developments, follow our Midday posts.
For the close, the wrap, and next-day trade ideas, read Evening Insights.
For deeper work, Forward Valuation covers multi-week single-name setups.
Deep Dive is where we publish full thematic research.

Informational only; not investment advice. Sources deemed reliable.

At a glance — Key events
• Hormuz reopening drove Friday WTI -11.45%, lifting $SPX +1.20% and small caps while pressuring $XLE.
• March PPI +0.5% m/m vs 1.1% est eased front-end fears, supporting $TLT and weighing on $DXY.
• UST 2Y yield fell 11 bps to 3.70%, steepening 2s10s by 4 bps as $TLT, $IEF rallied.
• TSMC Q1 revenue $35.9B and 66.2% GM plus Q2 guide $39.0B–$40.2B buoyed $SOXX.

Geopolitics and energy dominated the macro tape. News that Hormuz reopened during a Lebanon 10‑day truce drove Friday WTI -11.45% and helped the S&P 500 gain 4.5% on the week, with the Nasdaq up 6.8% and Russell 2000 +2.1%. Energy fell 3.4%, while travel and small‑cap cyclicals outperformed. March PPI at +0.5% m/m vs 1.1% consensus, softer manufacturing output (-0.1% m/m vs +0.1%), and jobless claims at 207k vs 215k nudged inflation expectations lower at the margin.

Rates and policy remained in focus. The 10Y declined 6.4 bps to 4.246%, the dollar index slid 0.6%, and IG OAS tightened 1 bp to 81 bp, as the oil shock unwind outweighed steady Treasury supply, including a newly announced $13B 20‑year reopening and a still‑projected $109B net borrowing for Apr–Jun. Fed Governor Waller’s higher‑for‑longer message—potentially holding funds at 3.50%–3.75%—kept term premia relevant even as the VIX fell to 17.48. Semiconductor sentiment stayed firm on TSMC’s Q1 beat, while policy headlines around Chevron’s coastal suits and media M&A added idiosyncratic sector noise.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro tape centers on growth momentum (US retail sales, PMIs), labor resilience, and energy balances. These data interact with heavy Treasury issuance to reprice rates first, then spill into USD and broad risk appetite.

• Growth/PMIs (OTHER) — eurozone and US flash PMIs plus US retail sales test the soft‑landing narrative. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: growth surprise→rate path→$SPY, $TLT, $DXY.
• Energy balances (EIA) — crude and gas reports gauge whether the recent oil collapse persists. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: inventory shock→oil/gas prices→$CL=F, $XLE, $NG=F.
• Treasury duration demand (AUCTION) — 20Y nominal and 5Y TIPS auctions inform term premium and real‑yield levels. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: auction tails→long yields→$TLT, $IEF, $TIP.
• Labor trend (CLAIMS) — weekly claims update tests the 207k-style low‑claims backdrop. numeric anchor: N/A. Driver → channel → assets: labor softness→Fed‑cut odds→$TLT, $SPY, $DXY.

Company Look

Next week is skewed toward index beta via a dense US earnings slate, with emphasis on mega‑cap growth ($TSLA, $INTC), semis breadth ($TXN), aero/defense ($BA, $RTX, $LMT), and rate‑sensitive sectors (utilities, financials). Market reaction should hinge on whether guidance confirms or challenges the current “resilient growth” consensus.

• Earnings — broad Q1 prints from industrials ($MMM, $BA), defense ($RTX, $LMT), growth/tech ($TSLA, $TXN, $INTC), healthcare ($TMO), utilities ($NEE), and financials ($AXP) steer sector dispersion and index tone; numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver → expectations → sector/index: realized EPS/margins vs guidance→sentiment shifts→$SPY, $QQQ, $SOXX, $XLF, $XLI.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to transact.

At a glance — Key events
• Ceasefire crushed oil risk premium; WTI -13.4% drove $XLE -3.9% and eased inflation beta for $SPY.
• Hot March CPI at 3.3% y/y and 0.9% m/m tightened policy expectations across $TLT, $SPY, $UUP.
• AWS AI revenue “>$15B” run-rate and TSMC’s 35% y/y growth reinforced AI-capex leadership in $SOXX, $QQQ.
• Treasury sold $39B 10Y and $22B 30Y, both tailing 0.2 bp, keeping term premium sticky for $TLT.

Risk assets rallied alongside a sharp collapse in energy premia and slightly lower yields. The S&P 500 gained 3.6% and Nasdaq 4.7%, while WTI fell 13.4% to $96.57 and DXY dropped 1.6% to 98.65. A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire drove WTI -16.4% on Wednesday, lifting $SPY even as $XLE lagged. At the same time, Treasury’s $39B 10Y and $22B 30Y auctions tailed 0.2 bp with bid-to-cover ratios near 2.4x, tempering further duration relief for $TLT.

Macro data and policy messaging stayed inflation-focused. March CPI rose 0.9% m/m and 3.3% y/y, with gasoline up 21.2%, reinforcing near-term price pressure across $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT, and $UUP. Weekly jobless claims printed 219k while continuing claims fell to 1.794M, leaving the labor signal mixed. FOMC minutes from the 3.50%–3.75% hold emphasized two‑sided rate risk, moderating expectations for imminent cuts. Outside the U.S., the RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% with a conditional tightening bias, and CMS’s finalized 2.48% 2027 Medicare Advantage rate brightened the medium‑term earnings outlook for $XLV constituents.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week concentrates on inflation follow‑through, global growth, and central‑bank signaling. PPI, China’s Q1 data, and U.S. activity prints frame growth versus inflation,

Read more

At a glance — Key events
• S&P 500 fell 2.1% to 6,368.85 while Nasdaq dropped 3.2%, as mega-cap growth de-rated; $SPY, $QQQ, $XLC.
• Weak $69B 2Y auction at 3.936% with dealers taking 24.1% bear-steepened 2s10s toward ~52–53 bps; $TU, $IEF, $TLT.
• WTI closed at $99.64, +5.4% Friday, with Brent $112.57 on Iran deadline risk, lifting energy; $CL=F, $XLE, $TLT.

Risk assets traded around a combination of supply-driven rate pressure and oil/geopolitical risk. The 2Y yield rose about 3 bps w/w to 3.91% and the 10Y about 5 bps to 4.44%, with quarter-end supply including $69B in 2Ys and $70B in 5Ys weighing on $TU, $IEF and $TLT. Higher yields and a firmer DXY at 100.17 helped push USDJPY up 0.7% to 160.35 and EURUSD down 0.4% to 1.1509, consistent with the week’s modest bear-steepening and risk-off tone.

Oil and inflation signals turned more prominent into week’s end. WTI at $99.64 and Brent at $112.57 came alongside a 6.9M bbl crude inventory build to 456.2M and Iran/Hormuz risk, supporting $XLE and inflation hedges while pressuring long duration. Domestically, import prices rose 1.3% m/m and export prices 1.5% m/m, while Michigan sentiment slipped to 53.3 with 1-year inflation expectations at 3.8%, a mildly stagflationary mix for $SPY, $QQQ and $TLT. Policy and regulatory developments—from dovish BOJ appointments to DOJ subpoenas in a $110B media deal—added idiosyncratic cross-asset noise.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week’s macro tape is labor- and activity-heavy, with U.S. payrolls, ISM surveys and claims likely to dominate. These prints, alongside China’s PMI and EIA inventories, mainly reprice rates and the USD, with secondary effects on cyclicals, energy and broad risk proxies.

• Labor-market data (ADP, JOLTS, NFP; NFP score 92) → jobs strength/weakness→Fed path→$TLT/$SPY/$DXY. Numeric anchor: 92.
• ISM manufacturing/services (scores 81, 78) → activity/prices→rate expectations→cyclicals and duration; driver→rates→$SPY/$TLT/$SOXX. Numeric anchor: 81.
• China NBS manufacturing PMI (score 74) → China growth pulse→commodities/chips→global beta $FXI/$SOXX/$SPY. Numeric anchor: 74.
• EIA crude inventories (score 84) → stock changes→oil prices→inflation/rates $CL=F/$XLE/$TLT. Numeric anchor: 84.
• Weekly jobless claims (score 72) → layoffs→recession odds→curve/risk $TLT/$SPY/$IWM. Numeric anchor: 72.

Company Look

Next week is skewed toward sector dispersion rather than broad index beta, with a cluster of mid-cap earnings across discretionary, staples and industrials. The main themes are U.S. consumer resilience, housing-adjacent demand and industrial capex, with read-throughs to $XRT, $XLP, $XLI and, by extension, $SPY.

• Discretionary/retail earnings ($PVH, $RH) → holiday/luxury demand→consumer-spend expectations→$PVH/$RH/$XRT/$XHB/$SPY. Numeric anchor: N/A.
• Staples/food earnings ($CALM, $LW) → input costs and pricing power→defensiveness versus inflation→$CALM/$LW/$XLP/$SPY. Numeric anchor: N/A.
• Industrial/capex earnings ($MSM, $AYI) → factory and nonresidential spend→cycle durability→$MSM/$AYI/$XLI/$SPY. Numeric anchor: N/A.

This note is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

At a glance — Key events
- Fed held 3.50%-3.75%, 2Y +6 bps, S&P -1.36% on decision day — $SPY, $TLT, $DXY
- Brent +8.8% to $112.19 while WTI slipped 0.4% to $98.32 — $CL=F, $BZ=F, $XLE
- Iran waiver frees ~140M bbl over 30 days, pressuring crude benchmarks — $CL=F, $BZ=F, $XOP
- Fed hike odds rose to 25% for 2026, 2Y near 3.89% intraday — $TLT, $IEF, $UUP

Equities de-rated as the Fed’s hold at 3.50%-3.75% and a hawkish SEP left only one 2026 cut, lifting the 2Y by 6 bps to 3.79% and flattening 2s10s to ~46 bps. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, Nasdaq 2.1%, with AI leadership fading despite Nvidia’s $1T TAM and Micron’s $33.5B FQ3 guide. Higher front-end yields and a 25% priced probability of a 2026 hike tightened financial conditions, weighing on $SPY and $TLT even as DXY finished about 0.9% lower on relatively more hawkish foreign central banks.

An 8.8% Brent surge to $112.19 on Hormuz/Iraq risk initially supported $XLE and breakevens, but the regime flipped late when OFAC’s 30‑day Iran waiver opened a path for roughly 140M stranded barrels, threatening to cap crude benchmarks. EIA’s 6.2M bbl U.S. crude build and 5.4M bbl gasoline draw added nuance to domestic balances. Regulatory flow skewed sector dispersion: proposed U.S. bank capital relief was supportive for $XLF, while DOJ export-indictment headlines hit $SMCI and FDA’s Wegovy HD 7.2 mg approval underpinned obesity-drug optimism in $NVO and $XLV.

(This recap is informational only and not investment advice.)

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week centers on how tighter policy odds and oil volatility transmit through auctions, global growth data, and inflation prints into rates, the dollar, and energy. The heaviest concentration is in U.S. supply and PMIs, with Japan and UK CPI shaping cross-asset reactions to the renewed inflation narrative.

- UST auctions (2Y, 5Y, 7Y; 3 sales, 2–7Y sector) test demand for higher yields. Driver→channel→assets: tail size moves curve and $TLT/$SPY.
- Growth/sentiment data (US/EU PMIs plus U. Michigan; 3 releases) recalibrate activity and price momentum. Driver→channel→assets: composite indices steer $DXY, $TLT, $SPY.
- CPI prints (Japan, UK; 2 reports) refine global inflation and BOJ/BoE paths. Driver→channel→assets: headline/core readings shift $FXY, $FXB, $TLT.
- Oil balances (weekly EIA; Δ_crude_Bbl anchor) intersect with Iran supply shock. Driver→channel→assets: inventory surprise drives $CL=F, $XLE, $TIP.

Company Look

Next week is more sector-dispersion than broad index-beta, with a tight cluster of mid-cap earnings spanning housing, infrastructure, industrial services, discretionary, payrolls, and travel. The focus is on how margins and revenues translate tighter financial conditions and oil volatility into demand and pricing across cyclicals.

- Earnings across infrastructure, housing, services, and travel (6 reports: CNM, KBH, CHWY, PAYX, CTAS, CCL) frame demand breadth and margin resilience. Numeric anchor: N/A. Fundamental driver→expectations→sector/index: revenue and margin trends shape outlooks for $XLI, $XLY, $IWM, $SPY.

At a glance — Key events
• Brent +11.3% to $103.14 on Hormuz/Iran war risk, pressuring Nasdaq -1.3% — $CL, $XLE, $QQQ
• January core PCE +0.4% m/m, ~3.1% y/y re-firmed front-end; 2Y +17 bps — $TLT, $SPY, $UUP
• $39B 10Y at 4.217% and $22B 30Y at 4.871% lifted term premium; 10Y +13 bps — $TLT, $IEF, $DXY
• S&P 500 -1.6% while IG/HY OAS widened ~4 bps; VIX closed 27.2 — $SPY, $HYG, $VIX

Oil and rates jointly drove risk this week. WTI rose 8.6% to $98.71 and Brent 11.3% to $103.14 despite a 400M‑barrel IEA reserve release, as Hormuz disruption and Iran war headlines lifted the inflation risk premium and favored $XLE over growth benchmarks. At the same time, January core PCE at +0.4% m/m (~3.1% y/y) and CPI at 2.4% y/y, alongside firm product draws, kept the “higher-for-longer” narrative alive and underpinned a 1.5% gain in DXY, pressuring $QQQ and $IWM.

On rates, a $39B 10Y auction at 4.217% and $22B 30Y at 4.871%, both with 2.45 bid-to-cover, reinforced term-premium pressure; 2Y yields rose 17 bps and 10Y 13 bps, flattening 2s10s by ~4 bps and weighing on $TLT. Equities de-rated: S&P 500 -1.6%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Russell 2000 -1.8%, with software underperforming despite solid AI-related prints from Oracle (cloud +46%–50% guide) and Adobe ($6.40B revenue, $26.06B ARR). Credit widened modestly (HY OAS to 317 bps) while VIX ranged 24.7–35.3, closing at 27.2, consistent with tighter but orderly conditions.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week is dominated by central banks and the Fed, with global policy (BoC, SNB, BoE and FOMC) steering rates and USD, while UST auctions and energy balances (EIA) test term premia, real yields, and inflation expectations across $TLT, $DXY and risk assets.

• Central-bank decisions (FOMC SEP; BoE; BoC; SNB, scores 98/90/86/82) drive policy path→front-end yields→equity multiples; $TLT, $DXY, $SPY
• UST supply (20Y and 10Y TIPS auctions, scores 87+82=169) drives term premia→real yields→duration risk; $TLT, $TIP, $DXY
• Energy balances (EIA, score 84) drive crude inventories→inflation expectations→rates and energy equities; $CL=F, $XLE, $TLT

Company Look

Next week is sector-dispersion driven, not pure index beta, with earnings clustered in US discount/upscale consumer, transports, and global/AI IT services and semis. The focus is on how consumer spending, freight volumes, and AI/corporate IT budgets hold up after oil’s ~8.6% weekly rise and higher yields.

• Consumer staples/value retail (Dollar Tree, numeric anchor: N/A) → discount traffic and margins→defensive vs broad retail expectations→$DLTR, $XRT, $SPY
• Discretionary and freight earnings (WSM, DRI, FDX; numeric anchor: N/A) → comps/traffic/volumes→macro-demand read‑through→cyclicals vs defensives in $XLY, $IYT, $SPY
• Tech/AI and China platform earnings (MU, ACN, BABA; numeric anchor: N/A) → AI memory/IT/cloud growth→software and semis sentiment→$QQQ, $SMH,

Informational only; not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

At a glance — Key events

- WTI jumped 35.6% to $90.90, lifting $XLE and pressuring $TLT as inflation beta repriced.
- U.S. payrolls fell 92k, unemployment hit 4.4%, jolting $SPY, $TLT, $UUP into stagflation debate.
- Q4 nonfarm productivity beat at 2.8% vs ~1.8% consensus, modestly supporting $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT.
- 10Y yield rose 17 bps to 4.142% while DXY gained 1.4%, weighing on $SPX, $IWM.

Oil and labor were the dominant macro drivers. An effective Hormuz closure delayed roughly 140M barrels and sent WTI up 35.6% and Brent 27.9%, boosting $XLE but pressuring long duration as the 10Y climbed 17 bps to 4.142%. That shock overrode EIA’s 3.5M‑barrel inventory build and helped push the VIX to a 29.5 close. On data, February payrolls printed -92k versus +59k consensus with unemployment at 4.4% and wages up 0.4% MoM, while ISM Services held at 56.1 and jobless claims stayed low at 213k, leaving a stagflation‑flavored mix.

Cross‑asset pricing reflected that tension. The S&P 500 fell 2.0%, Nasdaq 1.2%, and Russell 2000 4.1%, with Energy up 1.2% in $XLE and Health Care down 4.7% in $XLV. Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination kept a hawkish bias in focus alongside a $125B refunding that cleared but did not cap term premia. AI remained a counterweight: Broadcom delivered $19.31B revenue, $8.4B AI revenue, and a $22.0B Q2 guide, while Marvell outlined a ~$15B FY2028 target versus $12.92B consensus, supporting $SOXX and partially cushioning broader cyclical weakness.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week centers on U.S. inflation, oil, and Treasury supply. February CPI and the oil‑linked EIA report will test whether the recent 35.6% WTI spike sticks in inflation expectations, while 3Y/10Y/30Y auctions and global growth prints (Japan, UK) feed back into rates, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.

- Inflation prints (CPI, materiality 93) anchor the week; core MoM surprises steer inflation→rates→USD/equity duration for $TLT, $DXY, $SPY.
- UST auctions (3Y/10Y/30Y, combined materiality 249) test auction demand→yields→discount rates for $SHY, $IEF, $SPY.
- Oil/inventories (EIA, materiality 76) channel Δ_crude_Bbl→WTI→breakevens/energy beta for $CL=F, $XLE, $SPY.
- Global/US growth and sentiment (OTHER, total materiality 259) drive GDP/sentiment→central banks→USTs/FX for $DXY, $TLT, $SPY.

Company Look

Next week is skewed to sector dispersion rather than pure index beta, with a heavy earnings slate across AI infrastructure/software, China EVs, U.S. staples, value retail, and housing. Tech prints from $ORCL, $ADBE, and $HPE frame AI capex and monetization, while $NIO, $LI, $DG, $CPB, and $LEN update views on consumer health and rate sensitivity.

- Earnings (aggregate materiality high; numeric anchor: N/A) drive revenue/margins→guidance versus AI/consumer expectations→sector/index dispersion across $HPE, $ORCL, $ADBE, $NIO, $LI, $DG, $CPB, $LEN, $XRT.

At a glance — Key events

- Claims at 206k vs 225k pushed “higher‑for‑longer” and DXY +0.9% — $DXY, $USDJPY
- EIA crude draw -9.0M bbl to 419.8M drove WTI +5.3% and XLE +1.0% — $CL=F, $XLE
- Treasury 20Y $16.0B auction, BTC 2.36x, high yield 4.664%, nudged 10Y +4 bps — $TLT, $ZN=F
- Supreme Court tariff ruling vs new 10% global surcharge swung trade‑risk premia and broad ETFs — $SPY, $QQQ

U.S. macro this week skewed toward resilient activity and tighter policy expectations. Initial claims at 206k vs 225k and January industrial production at +0.7% m/m reinforced a “no‑landing” narrative, helping push UST 2Y +7 bps and 10Y +4 bps through Thursday, with the 2s10s spread flattening about 3 bps to ~61 bps. Fed Vice Chair Barr’s “on hold for some time” signal and FOMC minutes trimming 2026 cut expectations supported the dollar (DXY +0.9%, USDJPY +1.6%) while pressuring the duration‑sensitive equity complex, even as cyclicals benefited from stronger industrial and housing data.

Cross‑asset price action reflected the mix of firmer growth, higher real rates, inventory‑driven commodities, and shifting trade policy. A -9.0M bbl crude draw to 419.8M lifted WTI +5.3% and XLE +1.0%, feeding inflation‑beta trades against long duration. Treasury’s $16.0B 20Y auction (BTC 2.36x) highlighted ongoing term‑premium sensitivity. Later in the week, the Supreme Court’s invalidation of IEEPA “Liberation Day” tariffs, with potential $130–175B in refunds, briefly supported SPY and QQQ before Trump’s temporary 10% Section 122 global surcharge re‑introduced margin and EM‑exporter risk. Overseas, Japan’s 0.2% annualised Q4 GDP miss and India’s 1.81% WPI kept local policy paths in focus without dominating global risk.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week is macro‑light but still rates‑sensitive: Treasury supply from bills through 7Y interacts with recent Fed repricing, while EIA energy data and European/Japanese CPI revisions can nudge inflation expectations, mainly moving U.S. yields, the dollar, energy, and broad risk proxies.

- UST auctions (13W/26W, 2Y, 2Y FRN, 5Y, 7Y; numeric anchor: N/A): supply → yields/term premium → $SHY, $IEF, $TLT.
- U.S. energy inventories (oil, gas; numeric anchor: N/A): inventory swings → WTI/HH → inflation‑beta and $XLE, $UNG.
- Euro area and Tokyo CPI (numeric anchor: N/A): inflation surprises → ECB/BOJ path → EUR/JPY, global duration, $DXY.

Company Look

Next week is sector‑dispersion heavy: concentrated earnings across AI hardware, cloud/software, and U.S. housing/consumer bellwethers should dominate over pure index‑beta, with guidance on AI capex and household demand steering tech, discretionary, and broader benchmarks.

- U.S. consumer/housing earnings (DPZ, HD, LOW; numeric anchor: N/A): spending and housing tone → guidance revisions → $XLY, $SPY.
- AI/semis and hardware earnings (NVDA, DELL, CRWV; numeric anchor: N/A): AI server demand → capex expectations → $SOXX, $SMH, $SPY.
- Enterprise/software earnings (CRM, INTU; numeric anchor: N/A): SaaS and SMB demand → multiple support/pressure → $IGV, $SPY.

Subscribe now

This report is for information only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

At a glance — Key events
• Softer Jan CPI at +0.2% m/m pulled 10Y yields -18 bps and DXY -0.7% — $TLT, $DXY, $SPY
• January payrolls +130K but 2025 jobs revised -898K, clouding Fed path and growth tone — $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT
• $42B 10Y and $25B 30Y auctions with BTC 2.39 and 2.66 contained term premia — $IEF, $TLT, $DXY

Equities faded despite friendlier inflation and lower yields. S&P 500 fell 1.4% w/w (6,932.30 → 6,836.17) and Nasdaq 2.1%, with VIX up 16.0% to 20.60. January CPI at +0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y, plus core at 2.5% y/y, reinforced a disinflation narrative and pulled the 10Y to 4.04% (-18 bps). But the January Employment Situation—headline payrolls +130K against an 898K downward revision to 2025 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%—left the growth backdrop ambiguous, limiting multiple expansion in $SPY and $QQQ.

Rates and FX adjusted more cleanly. UST 2Y fell 10 bps to 3.40% and the 10s–2s curve flattened ~8 bps (~72 → ~64 bps), helped by a $42B 10Y auction (BTC 2.39, ~64.6% indirects) and a $25B 30Y (BTC 2.66). The ECI at 0.7% q/q and 3.4% y/y, plus softer import prices (+0.1% m/m) and still‑benign oil (WTI -1.0% w/w; EIA crude +8.5M bbl to 428.8M bbl), supported lower term premia and a 0.7% DXY decline, even as Energy ($XLE +2.1%) diverged from crude.

Look Into Next Week

Macro Look

Next week is macro-heavy around inflation, growth and supply: UK CPI, US PCE, PMIs and two UST auctions should mainly reprice rates, USD and broader risk. Energy balances via EIA reports could add volatility in $CL=F and $XLE after this week’s 8.5M‑bbl crude build.

• UST supply (AUCTION; $16B 20Y, $9B 30Y TIPS) — numeric anchor: $25B; tail/BTC drive term premia → rates → $TLT, $IEF
• Energy balances (EIA; oil and gas) — numeric anchor: N/A; inventory surprises move curves → energy earnings → $CL=F, $XLE, $UNG
• Growth pulse (ISM; US and Eurozone PMIs) — numeric anchor: N/A; PMI swings growth expectations → risk appetite → $SPY, $EZU, $IEF
• Fed inflation gauge (PCE; US Jan core) — numeric anchor: N/A; core PCE shifts cut odds → front-end yields/USD → $IEF, $SPY, $DXY
• Labor flow (CLAIMS; weekly) — numeric anchor: N/A; claims adjust labor-cooling narrative → Fed path → $IEF, $SPY, $DXY

Company Look

Next week is sector‑dispersion rather than broad index‑beta driven: earnings from software/semis, consumer, industrials and energy should steer style and sector rotation more than the headline indices.

• Earnings — from $PANW, $CDNS, $ADI, $BKNG, $OXY, $DE, $WMT, $ETSY — numeric anchor: N/A; results/guidance steer growth, margins and capex expectations → sector leadership and index breadth in $QQQ, $XLY, $XLE, $XLI, $SPY