What Moved Today
Market Recap
Today’s risk tone shifted lower as the Conference Board’s confidence slip and weak new-home sales dented growth outlooks, lifting front-end yields and nudging the dollar ($DX=F) higher while easing oil-risk premium ($CL=F). The Treasury’s USD69bn 2-year auction stopped slightly through when-issued, prompting near-term repricing in 2-year futures ($ZT=F). Separately, comments that mines were cleared in the Strait of Hormuz reduced crude transit risk, weighing on energy risk sentiment ($CL=F).
Intraday
From the open to the close, consumer confidence fell to 89.4 and July new-home sales plunged to a 607k SAAR, pressuring homebuilder sentiment and related ETFs ($XHB) while the 2-year auction’s 4.204% stop-through forced front-end yield adjustment ($ZT=F) and a firmer dollar ($DX=F).
After Hours
Intuit beat quarter and EPS but guided FY27 revenue below the street, flagging softer forward growth ($INTU), while Zoom posted upbeat revenue and raised FY27 guidance ($ZM) and Box beat and lifted its outlook ($BOX), leaving software sentiment mixed into tomorrow’s open.
Our Read
Expect early trading to focus on earnings follow-through in software and sensitivity of short-term rates to auction-driven repricing. Positioning should consider which earnings narratives dominate versus front-end rate moves.
