Evening Memo | Fed Dots Lift Rates; Exchange Litigation Frames Tomorrow
• After hours: CME CEO announced planned lawsuit against the CFTC over perpetual futures. • Tomorrow’s trade ideas: exchange/regulatory catalysts — CFTC lawsuit filing and post-earnings flow.
What Moved Today
Market Recap — The Fed held rates but a hawkish June SEP pushed front-end yields and the dollar higher ($ZN=F, $DX=F). Strong May retail sales and pending home sales reinforced growth expectations, pressuring duration and cyclical positioning. A larger-than-expected EIA crude draw tightened oil balances ($CL=F). Late-day headlines included Steel Dynamics’ Q2 guide and the CME CEO’s announcement on litigation plans ($STLD, $CME).
Intraday — Morning data showed retail sales above consensus, lifting growth-sensitive proxies and the dollar ($DX=F), while pending home sales and inventories signaled firmer demand and steady stock-to-sales dynamics; Jabil beat and raised FY26 guidance, highlighting AI-related revenue strength ($JBL, $XHB). The EIA report revealed a hefty crude draw and low Cushing stocks, supporting energy futures and upstream names ($CL=F, $RB=F). The Fed’s unchanged policy but hotter SEP drove repricing of front-end rates and weighed on rate-sensitive equities ($ZN=F, $SPY).
After Hours — Steel Dynamics guided higher Q2 EPS but flagged a $16mn aluminum-related write-down and disclosed buybacks, affecting metals and industrial suppliers ($STLD, $XHB). Later, CME’s CEO said the exchange will sue the CFTC over perpetual futures approvals, a regulatory flashpoint for exchanges and crypto-linked platforms ($CME, $COIN).
Our Read — Expect continued volatility around rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors into tomorrow’s session. Watch exchange/regulatory headlines and post-earnings flows to set intraday leadership and positioning.
