Evening Memo | Growth, cooling inflation set rates tone; big tech earnings steer tomorrow
• What changed after hours: Big-tech earnings hit: Amazon, Apple and several platform reports arrived post-close. • Tomorrow’s trade ideas: Focus on tech earnings reaction and Treasury-yield continua
What Moved Today
Market Recap — Mixed growth and cooling inflation reshuffled positioning: Q2 real GDP slowed to 1.5% SAAR while core PCE eased to 0.10% m/m, and initial claims stayed below 200k. The data leaned dovish for rates and lifted Treasuries even as equity futures reflected growth concerns ($ZN=F, $ES=F). The dollar also reacted to the softer inflation print ($DX=F). After the close, heavyweights Amazon and Apple reported results that added stock-specific volatility ($AMZN, $AAPL).
Intraday — The BEA prints at 08:30 showed below-consensus headline GDP but stronger private domestic demand and a clear monthly slowdown in core PCE, prompting Treasury-buying and a firmer dollar into the afternoon ($ZN=F, $DX=F). Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 197k, reinforcing labor-market resilience while futures traded on the growth-versus-inflation mix ($ES=F, $ZN=F).
After Hours — Amazon beat revenue and raised 2026 capex, highlighting AWS strength and AI-related investment, while Apple beat fiscal Q3 but guided slightly below expectations for September-quarter growth; both drove after-hours stock moves ($AMZN, $AAPL). Crypto and platform names also reported: Coinbase showed revenue weakness and a loss, and Reddit topped revenue and guided higher, creating dispersion in internet/media names ($COIN, $RDDT).
Our Read — The data-driven pivot toward easier rate expectations sets the backdrop for earnings to re-rate growth and capex narratives. Expect tech earnings reactions and Treasury-yield moves to dominate market direction tomorrow.
