What Moved Today
Market Recap — Hot July PCE and GDP revisions kept policy fears front-and-center while U.S. manufacturing and energy prints showed demand resilience. The BEA’s July PCE surprise and Q2 GDP second estimate lifted Treasury-yield and dollar expectations ($ZN=F, $DX=F). Durable-goods strength and a tighter-than-expected EIA stock report supported oil and refining names ($CL=F, $RB=F). A moderately tailed 5-year Treasury auction added nuance to intermediate-demand dynamics ($ZF=F).
Intraday — From the 08:30 releases through the afternoon, headline and core PCE each printed +0.20% m/m and stayed elevated y/y, Q2 real GDP held at +1.50% SAAR with stronger final sales, and durable-goods orders surprised on the upside, all of which lifted rate and dollar sensitivity ($ZN=F, $DX=F). The EIA showed only a small crude build with large gasoline and distillate draws, tightening prompt balances and supporting WTI and product futures ($CL=F, $RB=F). The Treasury sold USD 70bn of 5-year notes at a small tail, signaling mixed demand for intermediate duration ($ZF=F).
After Hours — Software and AI leaders posted upside that should influence sector flows: Salesforce raised FY guidance and beat revenue ($CRM), CrowdStrike beat revenue and lifted ARR-growth guidance ($CRWD), and NVIDIA posted massive Data Center revenues and guided well above consensus ($NVDA). The cluster’s results push AI capex and software subscription narratives into focus, likely driving risk-on/off moves into tomorrow’s session.
Our Read — Elevated inflation and resilient demand keep yields and the dollar as the primary market controls into tomorrow. Watch AI/software reaction to earnings for short-term equity direction and positioning.
Tomorrow’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map
1/3 Long $MRVL — Tactical (1–5d) • Earnings
Plan: If Q2 revenue is >= USD 2.84bn, go long at next regular-session open and hold next 1–3 sessions.
Marvell reports Q2 FY2027 with consensus revenue about USD 2.72bn and company guidance of USD 2.700bn ±5.00%. Revenue of ~USD 2.84bn or more would reach/exceed the upper end of guidance, strengthening the market’s view of data-center and custom XPU momentum and improving confidence in AI infrastructure demand, a setup that often sustains for several sessions after a clear guide-topside beat.
Risk: If Q2 revenue is below USD 2.84bn, mark Stale and do not enter. • Valid until 2026-09-02 19:46 ET
Setup note: Uses a single, verifiable revenue threshold; other watch items can still add noise post-call.
