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Evening Memo

Evening Memo | Inflation and Rates Reprice; IPO Debut Frames Tomorrow

• Stocks and yields moved after hotter producer inflation and an ECB rate surprise. • After hours: Adobe raised FY guidance; RH and Lennar also reported results.

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PickAlpha
Jun 12, 2026
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What Moved Today

Market Recap — Hotter-than-expected May PPI and an ECB hike lifted rate fears and repriced yields into the close ($ZB=F, $DX=F). A long-bond reopening drew modest demand but kept term premium under focus ($ZB=F). SpaceX priced a giant IPO intraday and Adobe beat and raised guidance after the bell ($SPCX, $ADBE).

Intraday — From the open through the close hotter final-demand PPI and a rise in initial jobless claims pushed inflation and labor-market signals to the fore, while OPEC trimmed 2026 oil-demand growth and the World Bank trimmed global growth, all adjusting risk and commodity views ($DX=F, $CL=F).

After Hours — Adobe raised FY2026 revenue and EPS guidance and flagged AI ARR strength, RH narrowed guidance and Lennar cut Q3 delivery outlook, with U.S. gasoline stocks noted at decade-low seasonal levels that tighten fuel balances ($ADBE, $RB=F).

Our Read — Hotter inflation prints and ECB repricing leave the market sensitive to long-end yield moves into tomorrow. Expect heavy focus on the SpaceX debut and any follow-through in Treasury yields to set directional risk.

Tomorrow’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map

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