Over The Weekend
Weekend action clustered around energy, geopolitics and data that pushed policy expectations. U.S. April payrolls surprised to the upside, tightening near-term Fed-cut odds and pressuring equity futures ($ES=F). Crude rose sharply as Hormuz shipping disruptions and a drone attack near Qatar heightened supply-risk premia ($CL=F) while Brent outperformed ($BZ=F). A Qatari LNG tanker sailed toward Hormuz, signaling a potential partial restoration of flows and lifting gas-market focus ($NG=F). China’s April trade beat consensus, supporting CNY and China-exposed assets ($CNY=X), and Beijing scheduled U.S.-China trade talks in South Korea. Saudi Aramco posted stronger Q1 profit and raised dividend flows, reinforcing oil-market narratives ($2222.SR).
Our Read —
Expect a Monday open driven by higher crude and tighter Fed-cut expectations, pressuring U.S. futures and lifting the dollar. Monitor Gulf shipping headlines, China trade-talk outcomes and payroll-flow data for directional cues into the week.
Monday’s Tactical Setup & Trigger Map
No qualifying tactical setup ideas met our credibility thresholds today.
We prefer to pass rather than force a low-conviction setup.