Evening Memo | Rates, housing and oil set today; EIA and Treasury flow drive tomorrow
• After hours: SpaceX options debut and La-Z-Boy earnings surprised. • Tomorrow’s trade ideas: EIA crude report and Treasury-flow into long-end auctions.
What Moved Today
Market Recap — Housing starts plunged and import inflation surprised, while oil and Treasury flow closed the tape: May housing starts missed sharply and pressured builders ($XHB), import prices rose, and a 20-year reopening printed as successful, pressuring long-duration bonds ($TLT). API-sourced data showed a large crude draw and Reuters noted Brent and WTI fell about 5% on U.S.-Iran deal details, amplifying energy swings ($CL=F). SpaceX options listed with heavy volume and La‑Z‑Boy beat EPS after the close, adding idiosyncratic activity into equity flows ($SPCX, $LZB).
Intraday — Morning data: May housing starts dropped to 1.177mn SAAR and permits slipped, hitting rate-sensitive names ($XHB) while import prices rose 1.9% m/m, lifting dollar and inflation reads ($DX=F). At 13:00 ET the USD 13bn 20-year reopening was reported successful, repricing the long end and pressuring long-duration ETFs ($TLT) into the close.
After Hours — API data cited a ~8.33mn-bbl crude draw and mixed product changes, which reinforced oil moves after Reuters reported Brent and WTI down roughly 5% on Iran deal details, lowering the crude risk premium ($CL=F, $RB=F). Market attention also shifted to the heavy SpaceX options debut that drove sizable flows and to La‑Z‑Boy’s upside EPS surprise and buyback authorization, both adding stock-specific momentum ($SPCX, $LZB).
Our Read — Expect tomorrow’s EIA print and ongoing Treasury long-end flow to set clear directional opportunities into energy and rate-sensitive sectors. Position for volatility around the EIA number and auction follow-through.
