Evening Memo | Strong Macro Lifted Yields; Earnings Set Tomorrow’s Flow
• Stronger labor and services data pushed yields and the dollar higher today. • After hours: a heavy earnings slate, led by Broadcom, CrowdStrike and retailers.
What Moved Today
Market Recap — ADP’s 122k private payrolls and a hotter ISM services print reinforced a firmer rates/dollar backdrop, while the EIA’s 8.0m crude draw tightened the oil balance. The Fed Beige Book signaled modest growth and persistent price pressures, adding to inflation sensitivity. The combination pushed front-end and intermediate Treasury yields and the dollar up ($ZN=F, $DX=F), and supported crude futures ($CL=F) strength. Post-close, standout results from Broadcom ($AVGO), CrowdStrike ($CRWD) and Five Below ($FIVE) set up sector dispersion into tomorrow.
Intraday — Morning ADP and the ISM services beat signaled resilience in hiring and services pricing, translating into upward pressure on Treasuries and the dollar ($ZN=F, $DX=F), while the EIA’s larger-than-expected crude draw tightened oil markets and supported crude futures ($CL=F, $RB=F). The Beige Book’s noting of moderate-to-strong price pressures reinforced the narrative of sticky inflation, influencing energy and inflation-sensitive assets ($CL=F, $ZN=F).
After Hours — Earnings drove after-hours moves: Broadcom guided Q3 revenue below some AI revenue expectations, while CrowdStrike raised ARR and announced a 4-for-1 split, Five Below raised its FY guide, C3 AI provided FY2027 revenue targets, PVH trimmed revenue outlook, and ChargePoint beat revenue guidance. Tech and software names ($AVGO, $CRWD) and discretionary names ($FIVE, $PVH) will likely lead tomorrow’s re-pricing and sector rotation.
Our Read — Expect rates and the dollar to remain central to sector leadership; earnings will determine whether AI and retail beats extend rallies or prompt profit-taking. Position for volatility into tomorrow’s follow-through as markets digest guidance versus the now-firmer macro backdrop.
