Evening Memo | Strong PMI and Issuance Lift Rates; Earnings Guide Tomorrow
• Big earnings beat-and-raises in energy, AI platforms and semiconductors after the close. • Tomorrow’s trade ideas: monitor post-earnings reactions from energy, AI-platform and semiconductor names.
What Moved Today
Market Recap
A hotter-than-expected July ISM Manufacturing PMI and a higher Treasury borrowing outlook pushed yields up and equity futures lower ($ES=F, $ZN=F). The Treasury raised Q3 borrowing plans to $739 billion, adding term‑premium concerns and pressuring intermediate-duration futures ($ZB=F, $ZN=F). After the close, a cluster of beats and raised guidance — led by Diamondback ($FANG) and Palantir ($PLTR) — shifted focus to company-level catalysts.
Intraday
From 08:00–16:00 ET, the ISM Manufacturing print at 10:00 showed a 55.60 reading that lifted growth and rate expectations, while the Treasury’s 15:00 update increased Q3 net marketable borrowing to $739 billion and a big cash balance, driving Treasury futures and equity futures volatility ($ZN=F, $ES=F).
After Hours
Between 16:00–20:00 ET, Diamondback beat and raised production and buybacks ($FANG, $CL=F), Palantir topped estimates and raised full‑year revenue guidance ($PLTR), and onsemi issued above‑consensus AI‑data‑center revenue guidance into Q3, keeping semiconductors in focus ($ON, $PLTR).
Our Read
Stronger PMI plus bigger Treasury supply steepened the backdrop and left rates the day’s dominant risk for equities. Tomorrow’s moves will track earnings follow‑through in energy, AI platforms and semiconductors.
