Evening Memo | Weak jobs and mixed data set up Treasury auctions and earnings follow-through
• Earnings cluster featured big storage and AI results after the close. • Tomorrow’s trade ideas: Treasury refunding auctions and post-earnings momentum trades.
What Moved Today
Market Recap — Thin private hiring, steady Treasury supply and mixed services and oil data set the tape; stocks drifted lower as short-term yields softened. ADP’s weak July print and an unchanged Treasury refunding pressured the front end while ISM services showed higher prices but weaker employment. The EIA revealed an unexpected crude build with product draws, adding nuance to energy flows. After-hours beats from storage and AI-exposed names rounded out the session and set earnings momentum.
Intraday — Early weakness followed ADP’s softer private-payrolls report and a US refunding announcement that kept coupon sizes unchanged, pressuring front-end yields and the dollar ($DX=F) while supporting 2–3 year Treasuries ($ZT=F); ISM services held expansion but showed weaker employment and higher prices, and the EIA’s unexpected crude build alongside product draws complicated energy balances ($CL=F).
After Hours — A cluster of earnings landed after the close: DoorDash ($DASH) posted stronger GOV and EBITDA with upbeat GOV guidance, Sandisk ($SNDK) and Western Digital ($WDC) beat on revenue and margins but gave mixed forward signals, while Axon ($AXON) and Figma ($FIG) raised growth or guidance amid margin pressure; the reports create differentiated post-earnings paths across software, storage and platform names.
Our Read — Tomorrow’s focus is on how auction demand absorbs the refunding and whether earnings momentum sustains sector leadership into the tape. Trade ideas should pair rates-structure reactions around the refunding with selective post-earnings plays.
