Holiday-shortened week: jobs data steadies the S&P while AI/semis stay under pressure
Soft jobs eased hike fears but chips lagged as yields rose; next week Fed minutes, 3y/10y/30y auctions and Pepsi/Delta earnings test rates and pricing.
Market setup: Soft payrolls cooled hike fears, but leadership rotated away from chips; yields finished higher into the holiday close.
Trade Idea Mark to Market: 10 shown — Right: 4 · Wrong: 3 · Other: 3.
Next Week: Minutes-driven rates vol meets 3y/10y/30y supply, while PepsiCo and Delta kick off earnings with consumer pricing tells.
Weekly Setup
A holiday-shortened tape (stocks shut July 3) finished with the S&P 500 essentially flat on Thursday but up roughly 1.8% on the week as breadth improved even while prior winners in AI and semiconductors slid again. The Nasdaq ended up about 2% for the week but gave back ground late as chip and AI-linked names extended a multi-session pullback, while the Dow pushed to another record. Macro was the week’s hinge: the June jobs report on July 2 printed a sharp payroll slowdown, trimming late-July hike odds and helping keep volatility contained. Cross-asset signals were mixed—gold jumped and the dollar slipped, but the 10-year yield ended higher versus the prior week—leaving equities leaning on rotation rather than multiple expansion.
Trade Idea Mark to Market
This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.
What Worked
Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.
What Failed
Ideas where the setup activated but price action rejected the thesis or invalidation hit.
Other Marks
Not triggered, partial, or otherwise untested setups.
