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Weekly Playbook

Jackson Hole’s hawkish stance marks the beginning of an AI-driven rally (August 24-28, 2026)

Nvidia kept Big Tech bid, but Warsh’s Jackson Hole hawkishness pushed yields and the dollar higher - next up: ISM/JOLTS/ADP, payrolls, and a key AI-semis print.

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PickAlpha
Aug 29, 2026
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Weekly Setup

U.S. stocks finished the week ended Friday, August 28 (August 29 was Saturday) modestly higher, led by large-cap growth as small caps lagged. The S&P 500 added 0.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%, with the AI complex stabilizing after Nvidia’s results and outlook again clearing expectations, keeping the index-level tape supported even as breadth stayed uneven. Macro kept rates in the driver’s seat: a July inflation update ran a touch hot (the Fed’s preferred gauge at 3.7% y/y) alongside a steady Q2 growth revision (1.5%), reinforcing “higher for longer” pricing. The inflection came late-week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks pushed front-end hike odds higher, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar and pressuring gold into the close.


Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

Trade Idea Mark to Market

This is the weekly mark-to-market of published evening trade ideas. The full ledger stays in the archive; below we show the selected marks that best explain what worked, what failed, and what was never really tested.

What Worked

Ideas where the trigger and tape lined up.

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