Morning Report | AI infra bid, oil risk premium unwinds
$AMD guidance tops Street; AI spend bid · $GLW optical supply tie-up spotlight · $XLE oil risk premium unwinds · $TLT Fed cut pricing pared · $CVS earnings beat; guidance raised
Market Pulse
Earnings
9 events
Earnings tape skews constructive with beats and raised guidance, while geopolitics and ad-demand uncertainty keep single-name dispersion elevated.
Last 24 hours
Shell posted Q1 adjusted earnings of $6.92B versus $6.1B consensus, raised the dividend 5% to $0.3906, and set a $3.0B buyback for three months, below the prior $3.5B pace.
CVS beat Q1 and lifted 2026 EPS guidance to $7.30–$7.50 and revenue to at least $405B, citing Aetna tailwinds as insurance MBR improved to 84.6% versus 86.3% estimated.
Novo Nordisk improved 2026 guidance for a 4%–12% currency-adjusted decline in adjusted sales and operating profit, after Q1 sales of 96.8bn DKK and oral Wegovy pill sales of 2.26bn DKK beat estimates.
Uber’s Q1 revenue of $13.7B missed estimates, but Q1 gross bookings beat at $53.7B and Q2 gross bookings guidance of $56.25B–$57.75B ran above consensus; net income was hit by a $1.5B equity revaluation headwind.
DoorDash guided Q2 GOV $32.4B–$33.4B and Disney lifted its buyback target to ≥$8B; Snap forecast Q2 revenue $1.52B–$1.55B and ended Perplexity, while McDonald’s comps rose 3.8% and Peloton raised FY revenue to $2.42B–$2.44B.
Market reaction
Post-print moves flagged a guidance-and-capital-return bid: Uber rose 8%+ despite a revenue miss, DoorDash jumped ~12% after hours, and Disney gained ~7%; McDonald’s was up >3% premarket, while Shell slipped ~2% early despite the profit beat.
Our view
Earnings-driven risk appetite stays selective, rewarding forward bookings/guidance and capital return while penalizing reduced buyback pace or macro-sensitive ad/energy uncertainties. Next: watch whether Middle East-related assumptions and medical-cost trend commentary force guidance resets across advertisers, energy, and managed care.
What could change our view
Middle East escalation worsens operating constraints and disrupts energy, travel, and ad budgets.
Aetna medical benefit ratio improvement reverses, undermining CVS raised 2026 outlook.
Tickers: $SHEL, $CVS, $NVO, $UBER
U.S.-Iran War
8 events
Oil risk premium unwinds on reported U.S.–Iran peace memo while Hormuz access remains contested and jet-fuel shortages tighten aviation markets.
Last 24 hours
Brent settled down nearly 8% at $101.27/bbl and WTI down about 7% at $95.08 as reports said the White House is nearing a one-page 14-point MoU to end hostilities.
Axios/Reuters sourcing said U.S. officials expect Iranian responses on key points within about 48 hours, with a preliminary MoU potentially starting a roughly 30-day clock for detailed negotiations.
NBC reported Trump halted the “Project Freedom” Hormuz naval escort effort about 36 hours after launch after Saudi Arabia restricted U.S. basing and overflight support; two U.S.-flagged ships had transited.
Reuters reported France deployed the Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group toward the southern Red Sea as France and Britain advance planning for a multinational Hormuz security mission requiring U.S. and Iranian consent.
China invoked its 2021 blocking statute to tell firms to ignore U.S. sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases, and urged Iran to end hostilities and resume Hormuz shipping ahead of Trump’s May 14–15 Beijing visit.
Market reaction
Crude sold off sharply on deal optimism, with Brent -8% to $101.27 and WTI -7% to $95.08. Precious metals also rose in the May 7 session: spot gold about +1.2% to ~$4,750/oz and spot silver +3% to $79.62/oz (July silver futures +3.9%).
Our view
A negotiated MoU framework that lowers immediate Hormuz tail-risk, keeping crude biased lower but with volatile headline swings. The key monitor is the next ~48 hours for Iranian responses and whether the reported 30-day negotiation timeline formally starts.
What could change our view
MoU talks fail and Trump follows through with renewed strikes.
Extended Hormuz disruption as escort operations stay paused and security mission stalls.
Tickers: $JETS, $XLE, $USO, $GLD
AI
3 events
AI infrastructure bid extends as AMD guides above consensus, Nvidia deepens optical supply with Corning and Anthropic locks 300MW Memphis capacity.
Last 24 hours
AMD reported Q1 results ahead of LSEG estimates and guided Q2 revenue around $11.2B versus $10.52B consensus, with data center revenue up 57% y/y to $5.8B.
Nvidia and Corning announced a multiyear plan for three optical manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas, targeting a 10x increase in Corning’s U.S. optical capacity and at least 3,000 jobs.
As part of the Corning partnership, Nvidia received warrants for up to 18M GLW shares and the right to invest up to $3.2B; separately, Anthropic agreed to take all >300MW capacity at SpaceX/xAI’s Colossus 1 site.
Market reaction
AMD shares jumped roughly 16–19% after the Q1 beat and upside Q2 revenue guide.
Our view
AI-linked compute and interconnect demand remains durable, supporting continued investor preference for beneficiaries across semis and adjacent infrastructure. Key monitor is execution—delivery against AMD’s raised trajectory, clearer timelines for Corning’s optical capacity ramp, and any constraints around powering large-scale data center capacity.
What could change our view
AMD data-center growth or Q2 revenue guide fails to translate into sustained follow-through.
Optical capacity buildout delays or data-center power controversies constrain realized AI compute availability.
Tickers: $AMD, $GLW, $SMH
Macro & Policy Digest
ADP upside surprise and sticky job-stayer wages reinforce “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, tempering near-term Fed cut expectations ahead of Friday NFP.
Last 24 hours
ADP reported April private payrolls +109k versus +84k expected; March revised to +61k, while job-stayer wage growth eased to 4.4% y/y and hiring skewed to education/health (+61k).
Our view
The data keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode, limiting downside in front-end yields and capping near-term duration rallies. Next catalyst is Friday’s BLS nonfarm payrolls, where confirmation of solid hiring and elevated wage momentum would further push out rate-cut timing.
What could change our view
BLS payrolls meaningfully weaker than ADP, reviving faster Fed-cut pricing.
Wage growth cools sharply, reducing inflation sensitivity and steepening duration bid.
Tickers: $TLT
SEC proposes shifting mandatory issuer reporting from quarterly to semiannual, setting up a slow rulemaking process that could reshape disclosure cadence by 2027.
Last 24 hours
The SEC released a 279-page proposed rule to move public-company periodic financial reports to semiannual, with a 60-day comment period starting after Federal Register publication and potential amendments before a final vote.
Market reaction
Prediction markets repriced the outcome: Kalshi odds of adoption by April 2027 rose to 73% from 46%.
Our view
This proposal stays in process for at least a year, limiting near-term index-level impact while nudging expectations toward fewer reporting cycles. Monitor the Federal Register posting date and the post-comment revisions that signal whether the Commission can reach a final vote on the semiannual framework.
What could change our view
Accelerated rulemaking timeline leads to final adoption well before 2027.
Material comment-period backlash forces major rollback or withdrawal of the proposal.
Tickers: $SPY
Japan is suspected of repeated yen-buying intervention after USD/JPY briefly broke above 160 and then reversed sharply, spotlighting carry pressure.
Last 24 hours
Reports cite a suspected Apr. 30 yen-buying operation after USD/JPY weakened past 160, with Reuters estimating up to ¥5.48T spent and the yen rallying about 3% that day.
Market reaction
USD/JPY reversed sharply after breaking above 160, with a separate midweek move strengthening the yen to 155.02 from 157.87 (about 2%).
Our view
Interventions drive sharp, short-lived yen squeezes but do not overturn the broader carry-driven pressure from the roughly 300 bp policy-rate gap. Monitor whether follow-on operations become frequent enough to materially lift USD/JPY volatility and force sustained positioning reduction.
What could change our view
Repeated, sizable intervention during thin liquidity forces a durable unwind of yen carry trades.
Policy shift narrows the US-Japan rate differential faster than markets currently discount.
Tickers: $FXY
FDA greenlights first fruit-flavored e-cigarettes with strict age-gating, signaling a possible regulatory pivot for the U.S. vaping market.
Last 24 hours
On May 6, FDA authorized Glas Inc. to market mango, blueberry, and two menthol e-cigarette variants, conditioning the decision on compliance plus post-market monitoring and allowing withdrawal if public-health findings change.
Our view
An incremental positive regulatory read-through for MO/PM/BTI as FDA shows willingness to authorize non-tobacco flavors under tighter controls, with limited immediate earnings impact. Key monitor is whether FDA expands similar authorizations or tightens back via monitoring-triggered restrictions or withdrawals.
What could change our view
Post-market monitoring flags youth uptake or compliance issues, prompting FDA withdrawal.
Authorization remains isolated to Glas Inc., limiting broader regulatory read-through.
Tickers: $MO
EU weighs sovereign-cloud rules for sensitive public data ahead of May 27 package, raising procurement overhang for U.S. hyperscalers.
Last 24 hours
Sources say the European Commission is weighing limits on member-state use of non-EU cloud for sensitive public-sector data, with a May 27 “Tech Sovereignty Package” proposal and later approval by all 27 states.
Our view
This stays a public-sector procurement and data-classification tightening rather than a broad private-sector cloud restriction, keeping the near-term impact headline-driven and incremental. The key monitor is the May 27 proposal detail on defined data classes, compliance standards, and transition timelines.
What could change our view
May 27 package expands beyond public bodies or effectively forces EU-only hosting broadly.
Member-state approvals accelerate into hard procurement bans with short transition periods.
Tickers: $MSFT
Company Events
SpaceX’s proposed Texas ‘Terafab’ puts a huge capex headline on semis, with Intel linked to 14A and local incentives pending.
Last 24 hours
Grimes County scheduled a June 3 hearing on SpaceX’s property-tax abatement for a multi-process chip complex, citing $55B phase-1 and up to $119B buildout; Intel is described as joining in April on design/fab/packaging.
Our view
This remains a high-profile proposal that is not yet a confirmed, near-term catalyst for INTC or tool suppliers. The tradable inflection is whether the June 3 abatement advances into binding commitments and funded procurement tied to Intel’s 14A participation.
What could change our view
Tax abatement approval is followed quickly by firm capex and construction commitments.
Intel’s role expands from collaboration to meaningful manufacturing volume or revenue visibility.
Tickers: $INTC
Lucid pulls 2026 production target as new CEO reviews operations amid inventory overhang and a supplier issue that impaired Q1 revenue.
Last 24 hours
Lucid suspended 2026 production guidance previously set at 25,000–27,000 units, citing an operational review by incoming CEO Silvio Napoli, elevated inventory, and a seat-supplier issue that drove a >$200M Q1 revenue impairment.
Our view
LCID trades with elevated execution and cash-conversion risk as management prioritizes inventory reduction and reassesses output plans. Next swing factor is the Q2 update following the CEO’s operational review, including any quantified production throttling and progress resolving the Gravity stop-sale issue.
What could change our view
Q2 update includes a credible plan and better delivery cadence, easing inventory concerns.
Further supplier or safety issues expand stop-sales and deepen revenue impairments.
Tickers: $LCID
Go deeper -
For intraday developments, follow our Midday posts.
For the close, the wrap, and next-day trade ideas, read Evening Insights.
For deeper work, Forward Valuation covers multi-week single-name setups (paid subscribers only).
Deep Dive is where we publish our full thematic research for paid subscribers.
Informational only; not investment advice. Sources deemed reliable.