PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-17 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks drifted as rates and the dollar reacted to a patient Fed signal and regulatory headlines. • Trip.com held its Q3 earnings call at 8:00 PM ET; • Three Trade Ideas for Tomorrow
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Fed commentary and a flurry of SEC releases set the tape today, while a late Trip.com earnings call closed the session. Governor Waller signaled patience on further rate cuts and emphasized data dependence, which fed through USTs and the dollar. The SEC published FY2026 exam priorities and posted industry-wide litigation releases targeting advisers, raising compliance and remediation risk. Trip.com’s scheduled 8:00 PM ET call promised Q3 detail relevant for travel-sector comps.
Intraday — From the morning through the afternoon, the SEC released its FY2026 Division of Examinations priorities and later posted multiple litigation releases detailing enforcement actions and settlements against investment advisers, highlighting focus on Reg BI, safeguarding, and technology/AI controls; midday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech reiterated that policy can remain restrictive and that any further cuts should be data-dependent.
After Hours — The only after-hours item in the payload was Trip.com’s Q3 2025 earnings conference call at 8:00 PM ET; the company’s results and metrics (revenue, EPS, bookings, international mix) were expected on or before the call but remained pending at the end of the reporting window.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Conditional $BIDU — At 07:30 ET when Baidu Q3 2025 prints: if $BIDU ADR trades up >= +3% vs prior close within first 30 minutes (07:30–08:00 ET) go long USD ADR size X; if it trades down <= -3% in the same window go short USD ADR size X. Close…
Baidu Q3 2025 (07:30 ET) is a direct read on China tech AI cloud profitability and search ad trends — high-impact for ADRs/KWEB. Use an intraday price-reaction threshold to capture directional momentum from earnings surprise and sector re-pricing.
Trade credibility: actionability 7 | timeliness 9 | clarity 8
2/3 Conditional $HD — At 09:00 ET when Home Depot Q3 FY2025 releases: if $HD trades up >= +2.5% within first 45 minutes (09:00–09:45 ET) buy long shares/ETF proxy; if $HD trades down <= -2.5% in same window short or buy puts. Close by end of day or after next 24h.
Home Depot (09:00 ET) prints comps/ticket vs traffic — immediate read-through to DIY demand, $LOW and XHB. Use a concrete intraday move around the release to act on confirmed market reaction to comps and margin detail.
Trade credibility: actionability 8 | timeliness 9 | clarity 6
3/3 Conditional $CL=F — Around ~16:30 ET when API weekly crude stock change posts: if front-month crude ($CL=F) moves >= +2.0% within 30 minutes of API release (16:30–17:00 ET) buy crude or energy equities; if it moves <= -2.0% in that window short crude or buy protection. Exit within 24 hours…
API inventory estimates (~16:30 ET) typically drive immediate front-month crude moves and energy equities/refiners. A 2% intraday move on the API release is a clear, tradable signal ahead of the EIA official report.
Trade credibility: actionability 7 | timeliness 9 | clarity 5