PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-26 - Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed, front-end yields steady after softer jobless claims, Deere guidance weighs on cyclicals. • Earnings cluster: Deere cuts guidance below consensus; Didi posts revenue and profit gains.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets faded intraday on a mix of macro and company news: initial jobless claims came in a touch better than expected, but Deere’s below-consensus FY26 profit guide pressured cyclicals. High-frequency WEI slowed modestly, durable goods showed modest capex gains, and energy reports were mixed with crude draws and a small gas withdrawal. Baker Hughes’ falling rig count added to a conservative energy tone.
Intraday — Between 08:00 and 16:00 ET, initial jobless claims fell to 216k while continuing claims rose to about 1.96mn; durable goods orders rose 0.5% with core capital goods up 0.3%; the Weekly Economic Index dipped to 2.10; EIA showed a 1.9mb crude draw, gasoline builds and distillate draws; natural gas storage withdrew 11 Bcf; Baker Hughes reported the US rig count at 544; Deere reported Q4 results and guided FY26 below consensus, and Didi reported revenue growth and higher net profit.
After Hours — The payload contains no additional after-hours headlines between 16:00 and 20:00 ET.
Trade Ideas For Tomorrow
1/2 Long $EURUSD=X — Between 05:00 and 06:00 ET Thu 11/27, after the euro area sentiment release, if EURUSD=X trades at least 0.4% above its 04:59 ET level and holds that gain for 15 straight minutes, go long; target an additional 0.4% rise by Fri 11/28 12:00 ET, with a stop…
DG ECFIN’s euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator update directly affects growth expectations and ECB-policy perceptions, which the payload links to EUR crosses and regional equity ETFs. A material improvement in sentiment should support the euro. I use a post-release EURUSD breakout as confirmation to capture short-horizon follow-through over the next trading day.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/2 Long $E-mini S&P 500 futures — On Thu 11/27 during holiday-thin trading through Fri 11/28 10:00 ET, if E-mini S&P 500 futures trades down at least 1.5% versus its official Wed 11/26 settlement at any point and then recovers half of that loss, enter long at the recovery; target a return to within 0.5% of settlement…
US Thanksgiving fully closes NYSE/Nasdaq and the primary cash Treasury market, while ES futures trade on reduced hours and thinner liquidity. The payload notes that low cash-market liquidity can amplify the price impact of any ex-US macro developments, often overshooting fundamentals. I want to exploit potential downside overreactions that mean-revert when liquidity returns.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 7.0