PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-18 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks drift as EU court ruling eases tech risk; earnings mixed across retailers. • After hours: Golub Capital BDC reported NII and adj NII; KULR posted a wider operating loss. • Three Trades Ideas
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets opened with mixed corporate headlines and a regulatory shake-up in Europe that narrowed near-term tech risk. Retail and consumer names reported mixed top-line trends, led by Home Depot’s modest comp gain and Amer Sports’ strong revenue beat and guidance raise. The EU Court of Justice overturned an antitrust order affecting Meta’s data rules, relieving regulatory pressure. After the close, Golub Capital BDC printed stable NII metrics while KULR showed a wider operating loss.
Intraday — Early data flow included Amer Sports at 09:00 reporting $1.756B revenue, up 30% year/year, and raising full-year revenue, margin and EPS guidance; Home Depot at 10:00 reported Q3 adj. EPS $3.74 with ~$41.2B net sales and comps +1.3% y/y. Midday brought the EU Court of Justice decision at 12:24 ET setting aside a lower-court ruling that had supported an EU antitrust order requiring Meta to change data processing for targeted ads, reducing near-term regulatory remedy risk.
After Hours — Post-close releases showed Golub Capital BDC at 16:05 ET reporting GAAP net income $96.3M ($0.36/sh), GAAP NII $100.8M ($0.38/sh) and adjusted NII $104.3M ($0.39/sh) with a small realized/unrealized loss. At 17:00 ET KULR reported a Q3 operating loss of $8.74M versus $1.71M a year ago, citing higher SG&A and R&D spend.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Conditional TGT — Before market open (08:00 ET release): if reported EPS ≥ $1.76 AND revenue ≥ $25.3B, buy TGT pre-market; if reported EPS ≤ $1.71 OR revenue < $25.3B, short TGT pre-market. Size to target single-stock event risk and trim into first 30–60 minutes of regular session.
Target reports before open with Street EPS ~$1.71–$1.76 and revenue ~$25.3B. Beats within or above the high end should re-rate big-box retail; misses on EPS/revenue point to margin/comp concerns and negative reprice.
Trade credibility: actionability 9 | timeliness 10 | clarity 9
2/3 Conditional SPY — At 08:30 ET when U.S. Trade Balance prints: if deficit prints tighter than consensus (trade balance > -$61.0B) buy SPY pre-market/at open; if deficit prints materially wider than prior (trade balance < -$78.3B) short SPY at open. Close or reassess within first 90 minutes of trading.
Trade balance scheduled 08:30 ET with consensus −$61.0B and prior −$78.3B. A materially tighter deficit implies stronger net exports/GDP impulse and potential dollar weakness/positive risk sentiment; a wider print suggests the reverse.
Trade credibility: actionability 8 | timeliness 10 | clarity 8
3/3 Conditional IEF — At the UST 20-year reopening auction (13:00 ET, $16B): if auction shows strong demand (indirect takedown ≥ 70% or bid-to-cover ≥ 2.5x) buy IEF into the post-auction session; if auction shows weak demand (indirect takedown < 50% or clear tail > 1.0bp vs WI) short IEF into…
Treasury to reopen the 20-year (CUSIP 912810UB9) $16B at 13:00 ET. Auction demand metrics will move long-end term premium and therefore duration ETFs like IEF; strong demand should push yields lower (IEF up), weak demand the opposite.
Trade credibility: actionability 7 | timeliness 9 | clarity 7
The conditional TGT trade setup is well structred with clear entry and exit thresholds. The EU Court decison on Meta's data rules is a positive near-term catalyst for tech stocks that reduces regulatory overhang. Watching the trade balance data tomorrow will be key for broader market sentiment.