PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-25 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed as rates steadied; consumer confidence slump and bank-rule easing dominated headlines. • HP reported fiscal Q4 results, launched AI program and announced job cuts. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets finished mixed after a day of data and policy moves that nudged positioning toward duration and defensive names. Wholesale inflation matched forecasts while retail sales and consumer confidence surprised to the downside, weighing on cyclical demand expectations. Treasury bill and 5‑year auctions cleared with solid coverage, and regulators finalized and proposed bank-leverage relief that eases burdens for large and community banks. After the close HP posted results, unveiled AI-driven cost cuts, and announced layoffs plus a dividend raise, adding sector-specific headlines.
Intraday — The session featured a 0.3% m/m rise in September PPI in line with expectations, a delayed Census retail sales print showing a 0.2% m/m gain below consensus, and a weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index at 88.7 that pulled forward recession concerns; pending home sales surprised higher with a 1.9% m/m gain. Treasury operations saw a $50bn 52‑week bill auction at a ~3.46% high rate with 3.08x cover and a $70bn 5‑year note auction at ~3.562% with 2.41x cover, while regulators issued a final eSLR easing for G‑SIB depositories and proposed lowering the community bank leverage ratio.
After Hours — HP reported fiscal Q4 GAAP EPS $0.84 and non‑GAAP EPS $0.93 on $14.64bn revenue, lifted FY commentary, rolled out an AI cost‑savings program, announced job cuts and raised its dividend, setting expectations for earnings revisions in the PC/printing complex.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $ZN=F — If at 08:30 ET on 2025-11-26 Q3 real GDP growth is revised lower versus the advance estimate and the GDP price index is also revised lower, go long front-month 10Y T-note futures (ZN=F) at market within 5 minutes; use a 0.5-point stop and 0.75-point profit target, exiting…
A downward revision to Q3 real GDP alongside a lower GDP price index would signal slower momentum and easing inflation pressure. That combination typically pushes out expectations for Fed tightening and supports duration. 10Y T-note futures should benefit most directly from the growth-and-inflation surprise, with a clean, time-stamped catalyst at the 08:30 ET BEA release.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $QQQ — If at 10:00 ET on 2025-11-26 the October core PCE price index year-on-year rate is lower than in September and real consumer spending is positive m/m, go long QQQ at market immediately after the release; use a 2.5% stop and a 4% profit target, exiting the trade…
A lower year-on-year core PCE inflation rate combined with solid real consumer spending would reinforce a soft-landing narrative: disinflation without demand collapse. That backdrop encourages a less restrictive Fed stance and supports duration-sensitive growth stocks. QQQ, concentrated in large-cap tech and growth names, should benefit as investors reprice future cash flows at lower implied real rates.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $CL=F — If at 10:30 ET on 2025-11-26 the EIA reports a crude oil inventory draw of at least 5 million barrels for the week ending 2025-11-21, go long front-month WTI futures (CL=F) at market; use a 1.0-point stop and a 1.5-point profit target, closing the trade by the…
A crude inventory draw of 5+ million barrels, following a prior 3.4 million-barrel draw, would confirm tightening near-term supply-demand into the Thanksgiving travel period. Such a bullish stock signal usually lifts front-month WTI futures and energy sentiment. Going long CL=F directly monetizes a stronger physical balance and potential risk-on flows into the energy complex.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0