PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-20 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed as U.S. payrolls and claims prompted rates repricing; earnings cluster dominated. • After hours saw Intuit, Ross Stores and Gap report results. • Three Trade Ideas for Tomorrow.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — The delayed September employment report and weekly jobless claims set the tone, sending rates and futures into repricing while energy and policy headlines added texture. Treasury sanctions on Iran and an EIA gas print weighed on energy-sensitive sectors. Walmart’s announced move to Nasdaq was a micro-structural note for exchange dynamics. After the close, Intuit raised FY revenue guidance and retail reporters Ross Stores and Gap posted results and guides.
Intraday — At 08:30 ET the BLS released the delayed Sept Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls +119k, unemployment 4.4%, avg hourly earnings +0.2% m/m, +3.8% y/y) alongside initial claims for the week to Nov 15 at 220k, driving front-end rates and futures moves; at 10:30 ET the EIA reported a −14 Bcf weekly change, leaving inventories at 3,946 Bcf; Nasdaq announced at 11:35 ET Walmart will transfer its listing effective Dec 9; at 12:00 Treasury announced new OFAC actions tightening sanctions on Iran’s oil network.
After Hours — Between 16:05–16:15 ET Gap reported stronger-than-expected Q3 EPS (~$0.84) and sales around $3.86bn, Ross Stores reported Q3 results with EPS $1.11 and a Q4 EPS guide of $1.56–$1.62, and Intuit reported Q1 FY26 revenue $3.168bn and raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 11–12%, tightening visibility into software revenue and margins.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $ES=F — At 9:45 ET on 2025-11-21, if the S&P Global U.S. November flash composite PMI prints at or above 55.5 (vs consensus ~54.5), go long ES=F at market. Place a stop 0.6% below entry and target a 1.0–1.5% gain on futures by the U.S. cash close on 2025-11-21…
The flash PMI composite consensus is ~54.5. A print at or above 55.5 would signal stronger-than-expected U.S. activity momentum, supportive for growth-sensitive equities and risk sentiment. This setup seeks to exploit a clear, time-bound macro surprise via S&P futures, with well-defined profit and loss bounds around the data release.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $INTU — On 2025-11-21, if INTU opens higher post-earnings and then pulls back at least 1.5% from its intraday high before 13:00 ET, enter long. Place a stop 1.5% below entry and target a move back to the session high or into the close. Exit any remaining position by…
Intuit raised FY26 total revenue growth guidance to 11–12% from 8–10% and maintained a strong ~33% non-GAAP operating margin outlook. The guide upgrade and solid QuickBooks Online growth outlook should support a positive re-rating; buying an intraday dip aims to capture post-earnings follow-through with defined risk.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $AZTA — On 2025-11-21, if Azenta reports pre-market EPS of at least $0.25 and revenue of at least $200m (vs consensus $0.20 and $192.8m), enter long AZTA between 09:35 and 10:30 ET. Place a stop 4% below entry and target a 7–10% upside by the 2025-11-24 close. If these…
Street expectations are EPS ~$0.20 and revenue ~$192.8m, with focus on life sciences orders and margins. A clear beat on both EPS and revenue would imply improving orders and operating leverage in a small-cap name with high sensitivity to fundamentals. A post-beat momentum trade can capture multiple expansion and short covering.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0