PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-24 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed as FDIC banking profile reset bank fundamentals and drove sector repricing. • After hours: Zoom beat, raised guidance and authorized $1B buyback; takeover bid announced. • Three Trade
Market Wrap
Market Recap — The FDIC’s Q3 2025 Quarterly Banking Profile altered bank fundamentals and prompted sector repricing. After the close, Zoom reported a revenue and EPS beat, raised FY26 guidance and authorized a $1.0B buyback. Symbotic posted rising revenue, positive adjusted EBITDA and a Q1 FY26 revenue/EBITDA guide. A Schedule 13D/A disclosed a non‑binding $39.25/share proposal to acquire Select Medical.
Intraday — At 10:30 ET the FDIC released its Q3 2025 Quarterly Banking Profile, detailing net interest margins, noncurrent loan ratios and unrealized losses on AFS/HTM securities and prompting updated expectations for bank EPS and capital across regional names.
After Hours — Between 16:00–20:00 ET, Symbotic reported Q4 FY25 revenue of $618M, adjusted EBITDA of $49M, cash of $1,245M and guided Q1 FY26 revenue to $610–$630M; Zoom reported Q3 FY26 revenue $1,229.8M and non‑GAAP EPS $1.52, raised FY26 revenue and EPS outlook to $4.85–4.86B and $5.95–5.97 respectively, and authorized an additional $1.0B repurchase; a 17:00 ET Schedule 13D/A revealed a non‑binding $39.25/share take‑private proposal for Select Medical.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $ZM — On 2025-11-25, if ZM opens at least 5% above its 2025-11-24 close and the 5-minute bar from 09:30–09:35 ET closes above the opening price, go long ZM at 09:35–09:40 ET. Set a stop 3% below the intraday low up to that point and target 8% upside or…
Zoom reported Q3 FY26 revenue growth, clear non-GAAP profitability, and raised its FY26 revenue and EPS outlook while authorizing an additional $1.0B buyback. The release is characterized as a beat plus guidance raise, which typically drives positive estimate revisions and buyback support. A strong, sustained gap-up suggests follow-through buying is likely.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $XRT — If the Nov 2025 Conference Board headline consumer confidence index prints ≥120 at 10:00 ET on 2025-11-25, go long XRT immediately after the release. Place a 1.5% stop below entry and target a 3–4% gain, exiting no later than the 2025-11-26 close.
The Conference Board’s confidence data directly shape expectations for holiday spending. A clearly strong headline reading (≥120) would imply solid Present Situation and Expectations indices, supporting discretionary consumption. Retail equities, represented by XRT, should benefit from higher anticipated traffic and ticket sizes, particularly into peak holiday weeks, making a strong print a near-term upside catalyst.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $ITB — If at 09:00 ET on 2025-11-25 the FHFA Sep 2025 HPI release shows national y/y home price growth ≥5.0% and m/m change ≥0.4%, go long ITB at the cash open or first liquid print after 09:00 ET. Use a 1.5% stop from entry and target a 3%…
The FHFA HPI is a key gauge for GSE-backed home prices and collateral values. Strong, accelerating home price momentum (solid y/y and m/m gains) supports the housing cycle, household wealth effects, and builder order books. Under such a print, homebuilder ETFs like ITB should benefit from improved sentiment on future housing activity and pricing power.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0