PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-21 - Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks reacted to jobs print and earnings while rates repriced on labor-led path uncertainty. • After hours: Intuit, Ross and Veeva reported results; guidance largely reiterated. • Three Trade Ideas
Market Wrap
Market Recap — A steady flow of data and corporate results set the tape: weekly initial jobless claims were 220k with insured unemployment at 1.85 million, and EIA storage showed a 14 Bcf withdrawal leaving 3,875 Bcf on hand. Atkore reported Q4 revenue and issued FY26 guidance in the morning, while Intuit, Ross and Veeva delivered results after the close. The labor print fed rate-path repricing talk, and retail and software earnings framed sector positioning into tomorrow.
Intraday — Between 08:00–16:00 ET the DOL reported initial claims of 220k and insured unemployment of 1.85mn, and Atkore posted Q4 revenue of $873m with FY26 revenue guidance of $3.1–3.3bn and adjusted EPS guidance of $14.00–$15.50; the EIA showed a 14 Bcf gas withdrawal to 3,875 Bcf, above the five‑year average.
After Hours — From 16:00–20:00 ET Intuit reported Q1 revenue $3.885bn and non‑GAAP EPS $3.34 while reiterating FY26 ranges; Ross reported Q3 sales $5.6bn, EPS $1.58 and raised FY25 and Q4 EPS guidance; Veeva posted Q3 revenue $811.2m and non‑GAAP EPS ~$2.04 and reiterated its framework.
Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/3 Long $ES=F — If the S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (flash, Nov) at 9:45 ET prints ≥55.5 (well above the ~54.6 consensus and 54.8 prior), go long ES=F on the first 5-minute bar after the release. Target a +0.8% move from entry with a -0.4% stop. Exit any remaining position…
Services strength is central to the U.S. growth pulse and the real-rate path. A services PMI print materially above consensus and the prior 54.8 would reinforce a resilient domestic demand narrative, supporting risk appetite and equities. A strong upside surprise should therefore favor a tactical long in S&P 500 futures keyed to the release time.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $BJ — If BJ’s Q3 print before the open shows EPS ≥$1.15 (vs ~1.09 consensus) and revenue ≥$5.45bn (vs ~5.34bn consensus), go long BJ at the opening print. Target a +5% move from entry with a -3% stop. Exit any remaining position by the close of the next cash…
Street expectations are for Q3 EPS around $1.09 on $5.34bn revenue. A clear beat on both metrics would confirm strong traffic and membership income trends at BJ’s Wholesale, with positive read-through to warehouse club competitiveness versus peers. Solid results should support holiday positioning in retail baskets and justify a near-term re-rating in the shares.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Short $ZN=F — If the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (flash, Nov) at 9:45 ET prints ≥53.0 (clearly above the ~52.0 consensus and 52.5 prior), short ZN=F on the first 5-minute bar after the release. Target a 0.50-point decline from entry with a 0.25-point stop. Close any remaining position by…
Manufacturing PMI above consensus would signal firmer growth momentum relative to the prior 52.5 reading, reinforcing a stronger growth and potentially higher real-rate narrative. That backdrop typically pressures U.S. Treasuries, particularly 10-year futures. A clear upside surprise in the flash manufacturing gauge should support a tactical bearish-duration trade via short ZN=F.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0