PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-11-19 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks rose modestly while yields steadied, Nvidia beat and dominated headlines. • After hours: Nvidia beat Q3, $57.01B revenue, guides Q4 ~$65B. • Three Trade Ideas for Tomorrow
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Nvidia’s blowout third quarter and strong guide became the day’s focal point, lifting sentiment into the close; Treasury and Fed moves kept a lid on rates; energy inventories tightened modestly while sanctions added a compliance risk angle. The EIA reported a 3.4M-barrel crude draw and 90.0% refinery utilization. The Treasury sold a reopened 20‑year at a 4.706% high yield with a ~2.57 bid-to-cover, and the Fed released minutes of its November meeting. OFAC added Russia-linked cybercrime entities to the SDN list, effective immediately.
Intraday — Between 08:00 and 16:00 ET, the US EIA flagged a 3.4M-barrel commercial crude draw and higher refinery utilization, OFAC announced sanctions on Russia-linked cybercrime infrastructure, the Treasury reopened the 20‑year and printed a 4.706% high yield with ~2.57 bid-to-cover, and the Fed published minutes of its recent FOMC meeting at 14:00 ET.
After Hours — From 16:00–20:00 ET Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57.01B and diluted EPS $1.30, citing data-center strength, and guided Q4 revenue to about $65B, driving after‑hours market focus.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $NVDA — Buy NVDA at the market open on 2025-11-20 (unwind or reprice intraday as needed).
NVIDIA reported Q3 rev $57.01B and EPS $1.30 and guided Q4 rev to ~$65B in after-hours, implying durable AI capex. Buy at open to capture follow-through into semiconductors and mega-cap tech leadership across the session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8 | timeliness 7 | clarity 9
2/3 Long $ES=F — At BLS release (8:30 a.m. ET on 2025-11-20): If nonfarm payrolls >= 54,000, buy ES futures / ETFs into the initial 30-minute post-print move; if NFP <= 22,000, do not initiate long and consider short instead.
Delayed September NFP consensus ~50–54k vs prior August 22k. A print at/above the high end (>=54k) would reopen risk-on via policy/yield transmission and likely lift index futures intraday.
Trade credibility: actionability 9 | timeliness 10 | clarity 8
3/3 Short $WMT — If Walmart reports EPS < $0.60 on its pre-market release (materials ~7:00 a.m. CT; call 8:00 a.m. ET on 2025-11-20), short WMT at the open; if EPS >= $0.60, flip to long WMT at open.
Walmart reports before the open with street EPS ~$0.60 and revenue ~$175–177B. EPS miss would pressure retail complex and WMT/XRT leadership; a beat should support shares—trade directionally off the print into the session open.
Trade credibility: actionability 9 | timeliness 10 | clarity 7