PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-01 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks drifted modestly, rates rallied, US‑UK pharma tariff deal. • After hours: MongoDB beat estimates; Reuters reports informal Paramount takeover approach rejected. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets digested a softer ISM manufacturing print and a trade deal that reshapes pharma pricing, while a strong cloud-software beat and a media M&A report drove after‑hours activity. The ISM fell to 48.2, extending sub‑50 readings and pressuring cyclicals and the dollar. A US–UK agreement to exempt UK‑origin pharmaceuticals from tariffs in exchange for a 25% NHS price rise provided a positive read for pharma margin visibility. MongoDB’s revenue and EPS beat repriced growth expectations for cloud database names, and a Reuters report showed Warner Bros Discovery rebuffed an informal Paramount approach near a $60B valuation.
Intraday — From market open through 16:00, attention centered on macro and policy: the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2 at 10:00 ET, the weakest in four months and below expectations, which supported duration and weighed on cyclicals and the USD; earlier, authorities announced a US–UK deal exempting UK‑origin pharmaceuticals from tariffs in return for a 25% increase in NHS prices for new drugs, improving margin visibility for pharma exporters.
After Hours — Between 16:00 and 20:00, MongoDB reported Q3 FY26 revenue of about $628M and non‑GAAP EPS around $1.32, both beating consensus and highlighting Atlas growth and operating leverage; later Reuters said Warner Bros Discovery’s board rejected an informal Paramount takeover approach valuing WBD near $60B, signaling serious M&A interest but no formal bid.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $MDB — On Tue Dec 2, go long $MDB between 09:35 and 10:00 ET if the shares are trading at least 1% above the official open and above the 5-minute VWAP; place a stop 4% below entry and a profit-taking limit 8% above entry, or exit at the Dec…
MongoDB’s Q3 FY26 print materially beat expectations, with revenue around $628M vs roughly $593M and non-GAAP EPS about $1.32 vs $0.79, highlighting strong Atlas cloud growth and significant operating leverage. Such upside surprises often trigger multi-day repricing for high-growth software, with investors upgrading growth and margin trajectories and short sellers covering, supporting near-term upside in $MDB versus broader tech proxies like $IGV and $QQQ.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $ZN=F — At 10:00–10:05 ET on Tue Dec 2, go long $ZN=F only if the JOLTS release shows both total job openings and quits declining versus the prior month; set a 0.4-point downside stop from entry and a 0.8-point upside target, or exit at the Dec 3 close if…
The October JOLTS report will update job openings, hires, quits and layoffs, giving a detailed but lagged read on US labor demand. Markets focus on openings and quits as gauges of tightness that inform the Fed’s policy stance. A clear decline would signal easing labor pressure, typically supportive for US Treasuries and consistent with lower front-end yields and softer $DXY.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long $WBD — On Tue Dec 2, enter a long in $WBD between 09:35 and 11:00 ET if the stock is trading no more than 3% above its official open; set a 6% downside stop from entry and a 12% upside target, or exit at the Dec 3 close if…
Reuters reports Warner Bros Discovery’s board rejected an informal Paramount approach that would have valued WBD near $60B, or almost $24 per share including debt, largely in stock. Even without a binding offer, visible strategic interest and a concrete valuation reference can support a higher floor and upside optionality in $WBD as investors reassess standalone and potential consolidation scenarios in media.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 7.0