PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-02 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed after Nvidia OpenAI comments and a heavy software earnings cluster. • Big software earnings: Okta, CrowdStrike, Pure Storage, GitLab, Asana, Box reported post-close. • Three Trade Ideas
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Nvidia comments on a potential OpenAI infrastructure deal set the intraday tone while a wave of software earnings landed after the close. Nvidia’s CFO said an up-to-$100bn OpenAI data-center investment via at least 10 GW of systems is not finalized and isn’t included in the company’s roughly $500bn advanced-chip bookings. After the bell, identity, security, storage and software names reported broadly solid results, with several companies showing durable revenue and backlog growth or raising guidance. The mix left the market balancing AI infrastructure upside versus stock-specific earnings reactions.
Intraday — At the UBS Global Technology & AI Conference, Nvidia’s CFO reiterated the letter of intent to invest up to $100bn in OpenAI infrastructure is not finalized and clarified any future OpenAI orders would be incremental to Nvidia’s roughly $500bn bookings through 2026, driving intraday focus on AI data-center demand and hardware backlog implications.
After Hours — Post-close releases showed Okta reported Q3 revenue of $742mn (+12%) with RPO and current RPO up double digits, CrowdStrike added $265mn net new ARR (+73%) with ending ARR near $4.92bn, Pure Storage grew revenue 16% and raised full-year guidance, GitLab posted $244.4mn revenue (+25%) with an 18% non-GAAP operating margin and positive cash flow, Asana reported $201mn (+9%) and updated FY26 guidance, and Box reported $301mn (+9%), collectively signaling continued demand across identity, security, storage and SaaS.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $CRWD — On 2025-12-03, go long CRWD if it trades above its 15‑minute opening range high after 09:45 ET and is within 0–10% above the 2025-12-02 close; set a stop 4% below entry and a profit‑taking limit 8% above entry, or exit by the 2025-12-04 close.
CrowdStrike added a record $265mn of net new ARR with growth accelerating to 73% YoY and ending ARR reaching $4.92bn, while also raising full‑year guidance. This combination of accelerating growth and improving visibility typically supports multiple expansion and momentum continuation, favoring a breakout‑style long following confirmation of strength at the open.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Short $ZN=F — If the November ADP private payrolls released at 08:15 ET on 2025-12-03 print at +100k or higher versus roughly +7k consensus, short ZN=F between 08:16 and 09:30 ET; target a 0.5‑point decline in ZN=F by the 2025-12-04 close, with a stop 0.25 points above entry.
Consensus for November ADP is for only a modest gain of around 7k jobs after October’s 42k. A print of +100k or more would signal a surprising re‑acceleration in private hiring, challenging the cooling‑labor narrative and pushing Fed expectations toward a less‑dovish stance. That should pressure 10Y Treasuries, favoring tactical shorts in ZN=F.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $CL=F — If the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 ET on 2025-12-03 shows a US crude inventory draw of 5 million barrels or more for the week ended Nov 28, go long CL=F between 10:31 and 12:00 ET; target a 2.5% gain from entry by the 2025-12-04…
The EIA report will update crude and product stocks after a Thanksgiving‑affected week. A draw of 5mb or larger would signal stronger‑than‑expected demand or tighter supply into year‑end, supporting prompt crude spreads. Such a bullish inventory surprise typically drives near‑term WTI strength, making a tactical long in front‑month CL=F attractive post‑release.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0