PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-29 - Three Trades For Tomorrow

• Stocks mixed as year-end funding pressure lifts short-term rates and AI/M&A headlines dominate.• After hours: EIA inventory surprise, Boeing contract and Meta acquisition. • Three Trade Ideas.

Market Wrap

Market Recap — Year-end liquidity and big-tech M&A set the tone today; standing repo usage and a tariff shock punctuated risk pricing. The NY Fed’s standing repo lent $25.95bn at 3.75%, signaling funding tightness into quarter-end. Data showed pending home sales rose 3.3% in November, surprising expectations and supporting housing pipeline optimism. Policy and deal headlines ranged from a U.S. tariff hike on SMIC to a SoftBank stake in OpenAI and large corporate deals after the close.

Intraday — Between the open and close Reuters reports drove flows: Chinese carriers signaled up to $8.2bn of Airbus jet purchases, the U.S. raised the tariff on SMIC to 50% from 25%, and pending home sales unexpectedly rose 3.3% m/m; SoftBank’s $4.0bn tender for an OpenAI stake and elevated Fed standing-repo usage at 3.75% ($25.95bn) rounded out the intraday market drivers.

After Hours — Post-close Reuters EIA data showed a surprise crude inventory build and larger-than-expected gasoline builds, while the Pentagon awarded Boeing an $8.6bn F-15 contract; Octopus spun out Kraken at an $8.65bn valuation and Meta agreed to acquire Manus for $6.3bn, keeping M&A and sector-specific supply considerations in focus.

Three Trades For Tomorrow

1/3 Short WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) ($CL=F) — On Dec 30, if front-month WTI (CL=F) trades at least 1.0% above its 09:00 ET price at any time before 14:00 ET, enter a short position at that level, set take-profit 1.5% below entry and stop-loss 0.8% above entry, and exit any…

EIA’s delayed report showed a 0.405mbbl crude build versus expectations for a 2.4mbbl draw, plus a larger-than-expected 2.86mbbl gasoline stock build and slightly lower refinery utilization. Because the data arrived after futures settlement, the next regular session should reprice a more bearish crude and gasoline balance.

Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0

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2/3 Short $ITB — At 09:00 ET on Dec 30, if the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite YoY print is 0.5% or lower (vs 1.10% consensus and 1.40% prior), short ITB on the first 5-minute bar after the release, target a 2.5% decline from entry, use a stop-loss 1.2% above entry…

The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite YoY index is expected at +1.10% versus +1.40% prior. A downside surprise to 0.5% or less would signal faster home price disinflation, undermining housing-market momentum and sentiment toward homebuilders, and likely pressuring ITB in the short term despite any longer-run affordability benefits.

Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0

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3/3 Long $TLT — At 14:00 ET on Dec 30, when the FOMC minutes are released, if TLT trades at least 0.7% above its 13:55 ET price at any time in the subsequent 15 minutes, go long TLT at that point, target an additional 1.5% upside from entry, set a stop-loss…

The Fed’s Dec 9–10 meeting lowered the federal funds rate range to 3.50%–3.75%. Markets will scrutinize the minutes for guidance on future policy and balance-sheet plans. A dovish tone that reinforces or extends easing expectations should lower discount rates and support long-duration Treasuries like TLT immediately after the release.

Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 7.0