PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-15 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed, rates nudged by soft regional data; Nasdaq's trading-hours filing.• After hours: Nasdaq seeks near-24-hour trading; FTC filed amended complaint against Uber.• Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Weak regional and China activity prints weighed on cyclical sentiment today, while a major market-structure filing grabbed headlines after the close. The NY Fed Empire State index fell to -3.9 and NAHB HMI slipped to 44, signaling softer domestic demand. China retail and industrial prints showed notable moderation, tempering global growth expectations. Regulatory pressure surfaced with an FTC amended complaint against Uber.
Intraday — Morning releases set the tone: the Empire State manufacturing index dropped below zero at 08:30 ET, builder sentiment fell to 44 at mid-morning, and China reported a sharp slowdown in November retail sales with industrial output also moderating, before the FTC filed an amended suit over Uber One around midday.
After Hours — At 18:39 ET Nasdaq filed with the SEC to extend U.S. stock trading toward a near-24-hour, five-day model, a development that could shift liquidity and volatility patterns if approved.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $TLT — At 08:30 ET on 12/16, if Advance Retail Sales headline m/m is ≤ 0.0% and the control group m/m is ≤ +0.1%, go long $TLT at market within 5 minutes. Use a 0.8% stop-loss and 1.6% take-profit versus entry. Close any remaining position by 16:00 ET on…
Advance retail sales directly inform US consumption and GDP tracking. A flat-or-worse headline and very soft control group would flag weaker demand, pushing markets to price slower growth and a more dovish Fed path. That favors lower yields and curve bull-flattening, which should benefit long-duration Treasuries via $TLT in the immediate aftermath.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $LEN — If after Lennar’s ~16:05 ET 12/16 Q4 release EPS is ≥ $2.50 versus $2.23 consensus and management highlights healthy orders, backlog, and limited incentive pressure in guidance, go long $LEN in after-hours once it trades at least 5% above the regular-session close. Use a 3% stop-loss and…
Lennar’s Q4 results and housing-cycle guidance are key for homebuilder sentiment. A material EPS beat plus constructive commentary on orders, backlog, and incentives would argue for stronger fundamentals than implied by consensus. That should drive a positive repricing in $LEN and peers, creating a 24–48 hour long opportunity post-release.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Short $DXY — At 09:45 ET on 12/16, if S&P Global US composite PMI prints < 50 and both manufacturing and services PMIs decline versus their prior readings, short $DXY at market. Set a 0.6% stop-loss and 1.2% take-profit relative to entry. Cover any remaining short by 16:00 ET on…
Flash PMI surprises shape near-term growth and inflation expectations. A sub-50 composite, alongside declines in both manufacturing and services, would signal broadening weakness in US activity. That combination typically pressures US yields and rate expectations lower, narrowing the dollar’s support and favoring a tactical 1–2 day short in $DXY around the release.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 7.0