PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-10 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks climbed as the Fed cut rates 25bp, compressing front-end yields and boosting risk. • After-hours: Oracle, Synopsys and Amtech reported results and updated guidance. • Three Trade Ideas
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets reacted to a clear policy pivot and a cluster of corporate reports. The Fed lowered the funds target range 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, supporting equities while front-end yields compressed. A re-benchmark by the EIA raised U.S. crude production estimates modestly, weighing on energy sentiment. After the close, Oracle, Synopsys and Amtech released results and the tape awaited their implications for software, EDA and equipment peers.
Intraday — Early action included Heidrick & Struggles completing its take-private and delisting, removing shares from public benchmarks; midday the EIA re-benchmarked U.S. crude production up by 52 kb/d; at 14:00 ET the FOMC delivered a 25 bp cut and updated reserve and repo rates, tilting rates and equities for the rest of the session.
After Hours — Starting at 16:05 ET, Oracle posted Q2 FY2026 results and updated cloud and applications commentary; Synopsys reported Q4 and FY2025 results and issued FY2026 guidance; Amtech Systems released Q4 and full-year 2025 results with order and backlog commentary, leaving markets to parse guidance and segment trends into tomorrow’s open.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $ZN=F — If on 2025-12-11 at 8:30 a.m. ET initial jobless claims for the week of Dec. 6 print at 240K or higher (≥20K above the 220K consensus), go long ZN=F between 8:31–8:40 a.m. ET. Place a stop 0.35% below entry and a profit target 0.6% above entry, or…
Consensus looks for initial claims to rise to 220K from 191K. A much higher reading, such as 240K or above, would signal faster-than-expected labor-market softening, pushing markets to price a more accommodative Fed reaction function. That should support lower medium-term Treasury yields and higher 10-year note futures in the hours after the release.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $ZB=F — On 2025-12-11, after the 30-year Treasury reopening around 12:00 p.m. ET, if the auction high yield stops through the when-issued yield by at least 1.5 bp or the bid-to-cover ratio is 2.5x or higher, go long ZB=F between 12:01–12:20 p.m. ET. Use a stop 0.4% below entry…
The prior 30-year auction cleared at a 4.694% average yield. A reopening that stops through when-issued levels or shows strong bid-to-cover and indirect demand would signal robust appetite for long-duration risk-free assets. That typically compresses long-end yields and supports 30-year bond futures over the next 24–48 hours as duration-sensitive assets reprice.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Short $DX-Y.NYB — If on 2025-12-11 at 8:30 a.m. ET continuing jobless claims for the week of Nov. 29 print at or above 2.00M (meaningfully above the ~1.95M expectation and 1.939M prior), short DX-Y.NYB between 8:31–8:45 a.m. ET. Use a stop 0.4% above entry and a profit target 0.7% below…
Continuing claims near 1.95M are expected after 1.939M previously. A move to 2.00M or higher would highlight a more persistent softening in the labor market, reinforcing expectations for lower Fed funds and medium-term Treasury yields. Softer U.S. growth and easier policy prospects typically weigh on the dollar index, favoring a tactical short.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0