PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-30 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks ended mixed as Fed minutes highlighted bill purchases, briefly pressuring front-end yields. • After hours: Rithm completed 1-for-6 reverse split; Fed minutes detailed ~$40bn bill purchases.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets shrugged through mixed regional data and a steady national JOLTS headline before policy minutes in the evening changed the tone; intraday weakness in retail signals contrasted with little national change in job openings. The Dallas Fed showed a sharp drop in Texas retail sentiment while service revenues ticked up slightly; BLS reported national openings/hires/separations little changed but notable state-level moves. After hours, the Fed minutes revealed reserve management purchases of about $40 billion in bills and Rithm Property Trust completed a 1-for-6 reverse split.
Intraday — At 10:00 ET the BLS state JOLTS release showed the national job openings/hires/separations rates little changed, with openings up in Alaska, Wyoming and Montana and a large level decline in New York (-40k); the release noted state-level deltas and steady national headline conditions. At 10:30 ET the Dallas Fed surveys showed the Texas Retail sales index plunging to -20.6 while the future sales index rose to 18.8; the service sector revenue index edged to 0.1, employment fell to -0.8, and input prices remained elevated at 26.2.
After Hours — At 5:00 p.m. ET Rithm Property Trust executed a 1-for-6 reverse split, reducing shares outstanding to roughly 7.57 million and establishing a new CUSIP; split-adjusted trading was set to begin Dec 31. At 6:16 p.m. ET the Fed minutes described reserves as in an “ample” range and noted initial reserve management purchases of about $40 billion in Treasury bills starting Dec 12 to support rate control and market functioning.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $SPY — If between 8:30 and 9:35 ET on Dec 31, after the jobless claims release, SPY trades at least 0.7% below its Dec 30 close, go long; place a stop 0.5% below entry and a profit target 0.8% above entry, closing any remaining position by the 16:00 ET…
The 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims release can create sharp, short-lived swings in index futures and SPY as traders recalibrate labor and policy expectations in a holiday-thinned market. Using a post-release price trigger to buy into an outsized downside move targets intraday mean reversion rather than a specific directional call on the claims numbers themselves.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) ($CL=F) — On Dec 31, if in the first 20 minutes after the 10:30 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report release (by 10:50 ET) front-month CL=F falls at least 2% versus its 10:29 ET price, enter a long; use a stop 1% below entry…
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report often triggers abrupt moves in front-month crude as traders react to surprises in crude and product inventories, refinery runs, and implied demand. Around holiday-adjusted schedules, thinner liquidity can amplify that initial reaction. A conditional long after a sizable post-release selloff seeks to capture an intraday snapback once positioning stabilizes.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Short $RPT — On Dec 31, once RPT begins split-adjusted NYSE trading, if between 9:30 and 9:45 ET the price trades at least 5% above its opening print, enter a short position; use a stop 3% above entry and target a 5% intraday retracement, exiting any remaining position by the…
The 1-for-6 reverse split cuts Rithm Property Trust’s share count to ~7.6m and lifts its per-share price, likely reducing depth and increasing opening volatility when split-adjusted trading starts. Fading an outsized early spike aims to monetize any mechanically driven overbidding on the first post-split session without taking multi-day fundamental exposure.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0