PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-03 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks drifted amid mixed macro prints, modest rate moves and an earnings beat driving tech focus. • Snowflake beat Q3 revenue and EPS; guidance and RPO are the key follow-ups. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Weak ADP payrolls and a still-expanding ISM services reading set a mixed growth picture, while surprise EIA inventory builds weighed on energy. Equities traded cautiously into the close as investors parsed softer hiring, steady service-sector expansion, and the implications for rates and growth exposures. After the bell, Snowflake topped revenue and EPS expectations, refocusing attention on AI/cloud revenue and guidance.
Intraday — At 08:15 ET ADP showed a 32k decline in private payrolls, surprising to the downside and tempering hiring expectations ahead of BLS payrolls; at 10:00 ET ISM Services edged up to 52.6, signaling modest expansion with employment still below 50; and at 11:12 ET the EIA reported a 0.6 mb crude build plus gasoline and distillate inventory increases, surprising against expected draws and pressuring energy sentiment.
After Hours — After the close Snowflake reported Q3 FY26 results with product and total revenue growth in the low-30s and non-GAAP EPS above forecasts, leaving investors focused on remaining performance obligations and guidance updates to assess AI/cloud momentum and margin durability.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $IWM — On 2025-12-04 at 07:25 ET, record $IWM premarket price P0. If by 07:45 ET, after the Challenger job cuts report, $IWM trades at or below 0.992×P0 (≥0.8% drop), go long at market. Set a stop 0.5% below entry and take profit at +0.8% or at 12:00 ET…
The Challenger report offers an early read on corporate layoff plans and labor-market slack, which can hit cyclical small caps disproportionately. A sharp premarket selloff in $IWM on layoff headlines often overshoots near-term fundamentals. Buying a defined, panic-driven dip aims to capture mean reversion as risk sentiment stabilizes into the regular session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
2/3 Long $ZN=F — On 2025-12-04, between 08:25–08:29 ET, note March ZN=F range high H. After the 08:30 ET initial jobless-claims release, if by 08:35 ET ZN=F trades at or above H+0.25 points and holds that level for at least 1 minute, go long at market. Set a stop 0.15 points…
Weekly initial jobless claims are a high-frequency gauge of layoffs that influence recession risk and Fed-cut timing, feeding directly into Treasury yields. A post-release upside breakout in ZN=F signals the market reading the data as labor-market softening and more dovish policy. The momentum entry with defined stop seeks to capture that claims-driven bond rally intraday.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Short $HYG — On 2025-12-04 at 08:29 ET, record $HYG price P0. If by 08:40 ET, after the continuing jobless-claims release, $HYG is trading at or below 0.994×P0 (≥0.6% drop), enter a short at market. Place a stop 0.4% above entry and cover at +1.2% profit or at the 16:00…
Continuing jobless claims track the stock of people receiving unemployment benefits, informing depth of labor-market slack and ease of finding new work. A marked negative reaction in $HYG suggests the market is pricing greater default and downgrade risk, widening high-yield credit spreads. Shorting on confirmed weakness attempts to capture follow-through in risk-off credit repricing that day.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0