PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-16 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks drifted modestly as flat retail sales, solid payrolls and softer PMIs pressured rates. • CareTrust REIT declared a $0.335 quarterly cash dividend after the close. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Data delayed by the federal shutdown set the tone: retail sales were flat while payrolls rose 170k and wages ticked higher, and flash PMIs cooled. Markets parsed the mixed growth signal — solid labor but softer activity — against implications for yields and the dollar. After the close a REIT dividend was announced, adding an income-focused data point for fixed-income-sensitive names.
Intraday — Between 08:30 and 16:00 ET investors absorbed delayed U.S. reports: advance retail sales were unchanged, the Employment Situation showed +170k payrolls with a 4.4% unemployment rate and 0.3% m/m wage gains, and S&P Global’s flash December PMIs slid (composite 53.0) signaling slower activity; the prints fed the usual linkages to yields, FX and equities.
After Hours — At 16:05 ET CareTrust REIT declared a $0.335 quarterly cash dividend, a direct input for REIT yield and income screens and relevant to income mandates.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) ($CL=F) — After the 2025-12-17 10:30 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, if commercial crude (ex-SPR) inventories show a draw of ≥3.0 mb and both gasoline and distillate inventories also decline, go long CL=F between 10:30–11:00 ET. Use a stop $1.50 below entry and…
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report directly drives expectations for the US petroleum balance. A sizable draw in commercial crude together with product inventory declines would signal tighter near-term supply/demand. That typically supports prompt crude futures and related energy equities, making a tactical long CL=F attractive into the following session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long 30Y U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (CBOT) ($ZB=F) — At the 2025-12-17 13:00 ET 20-year reopening, if the high yield stops through the when-issued level by ≥1 bp and bid-to-cover is ≥2.6x, go long ZB=F between 13:01–13:10 ET. Place a stop 0.75 points below entry and target 1.5 points upside…
The $13.0B 20-year reopening is a focused duration-supply event. A high yield that stops through the when-issued level with a strong bid-to-cover indicates robust demand for long-dated Treasuries. Such an outcome should support long-end prices and flatten the curve, favoring a tactical long in bond futures immediately after results.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $GIS — If General Mills reports on 2025-12-17 EPS ≥$1.08 (vs about $1.03 consensus), net sales ≥$4.85B, positive organic net sales growth, and maintains or raises its FY outlook, buy GIS at the 09:30–10:00 ET open. Set a stop 3% below entry and target 5% upside or exit by…
General Mills’ pre-market earnings, with EPS and sales versus consensus in focus, can reset the staples valuation. A clear beat on EPS and revenue, plus positive organic growth and steady or better FY outlook, would support multiple expansion and defensiveness. A tight post-open long targets that repricing over 1–2 days.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0