PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-08 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed; takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery dominates headlines. • After-hours: Twenty One to list on NYSE as XXI tomorrow; Nasdaq posts resumption schedule. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash $30/share tender for Warner Bros. Discovery, directly challenging Netflix’s earlier asset deal and setting up a high-profile bidding contest. Warner Bros. Discovery said it will review the proposal; regulatory and antitrust reviews are expected. Into the close and early evening, market attention shifted toward media arbitrage and next-day listing/resumption events that could alter pre-market flows.
Intraday — At 13:20 ET Paramount Skydance announced a $30 cash tender for all Warner Bros. Discovery shares (enterprise value about $108.4bn), positioning against Netflix’s previously announced roughly $82.7bn asset deal; WBD said it will review the proposal and the transaction would require regulatory and antitrust approvals, with implications for takeover premia, arb flows and media peers.
After Hours — At 18:05 ET Twenty One said its business combination closed and the combined company is expected to begin NYSE trading Dec 9 under the symbol XXI, creating a crypto-treasury proxy for flows; at 19:30 ET Nasdaq published a Dec 9 resumption schedule with example times (ODP 07:50 ET, NVCR 07:55 ET, ADYEY 08:55 ET), highlighting pre-market timing and microstructure considerations.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $NVCR — At NVCR’s Nasdaq resumption (scheduled 07:55 ET Dec 9), if the opening trade is at least 8% below the last pre-halt close, go long NVCR within the first 2 minutes. Target a retracement of half the gap (4% vs the last close) or exit by 11:00 ET…
The Nasdaq resumption schedule gives precise premarket restart times, creating defined liquidity windows. Stocks coming off halts frequently overshoot on the opening print before mean-reverting intraday. Using NVCR, a volatile name, a rules-based buy on a large gap-down versus the last pre-halt close exploits potential order-imbalance dislocations while controlling risk with explicit time and percentage limits.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $ZN=F — At 13:00 ET Dec 9, if the 10-Year Note reopening stops through when-issued by at least 1.0bp and bid-to-cover is ≥2.50, go long ZN=F within 5 minutes. Target a 0.4-point rally by 10:00 ET Dec 10; place a 0.2-point stop-loss from entry.
The 10-Year Note reopening is part of the refunding schedule and a key test of demand at the intermediate maturity. Auction strength or weakness often drives immediate moves in 10-year yields and futures. A stop-through vs when-issued and healthy bid-to-cover indicate strong demand and lower yields. Buying ZN=F only under those conditions directly harnesses that signal.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $AZO — If AutoZone reports Q1 FY26 EPS of at least $34 and revenue of at least $4.75bn at 07:00 ET Dec 9, go long AZO on the 09:35–09:45 ET pullback. Target a 4% gain versus entry by the Dec 10 close; set a 3% downside stop from entry.
AutoZone’s pre-open Q1 release centers on EPS, revenue, and operating leverage, with consensus around $32.35 EPS and $4.64bn revenue. The company’s buybacks and margins support its multiple when results materially beat expectations. Going long AZO only if EPS and revenue clear generous thresholds focuses risk on a positive surprise, seeking follow-through buying as investors re-rate cash generation.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0