PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-19 - Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks finished mixed as global yields rose after the Bank of Japan's rate hike. • Nasdaq will delist a Chapter 11 filer; Whitestone raises dividend and authorizes buybacks. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Equities closed mixed as macro prints and corporate filings drove rotation into rate- and income-sensitive names. The BOJ’s 25bp hike pushed global yields higher and fed through to U.S. rate sensitivity amid softer U. Michigan sentiment. Housing data showed existing home sales ticked up, adding nuance to the consumer picture. Company moves ranged from a large impairment at Conagra to a Nasdaq delisting notice and fresh REIT capital returns.
Intraday — Between 08:00 and 16:00 ET, Conagra reported Q2 adjusted EPS above estimates but posted a sizeable impairment and maintained a flat-to-negative organic sales outlook; Trio‑Tech filed to implement a 1‑for‑5 reverse split effective Dec. 31; Helios declared a $0.09 quarterly dividend; the USDA adjusted its export sales release cadence through early January.
After Hours — From 16:00–20:00 ET, Reuters reported U.S. existing home sales rose in November while the University of Michigan’s final December sentiment fell and one‑year inflation expectations ticked up; the BOJ raised its policy rate 25bp to 0.75%; Luminar disclosed Nasdaq will delist following its Chapter 11 filing; Whitestone announced a 13% dividend increase and up to $100mn buyback authorization.
Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/3 Long $FXI — If Saturday’s PBoC 1-year Loan Prime Rate fixing shows a cut of at least 10 bp from the current 3.00%, then at the next US cash open go long FXI at market. Set a stop 2% below entry and a profit target 4–5% above entry, exiting no…
Economic calendars show the PBoC’s 1-year LPR fixing with the recent level at 3.00%. A cut of ≥10 bp would signal targeted monetary easing, improving China credit and growth expectations. Such a move should support China equity beta and risk appetite, making FXI an attractive short-horizon vehicle for a policy-driven relief rally.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $KWEB — If the PBoC 5-year Loan Prime Rate is cut by at least 10 bp at Saturday’s fixing, then at the next US cash open go long KWEB at market. Set a stop 2.5% below entry and a profit target 5–6% above entry, exiting no later than the…
The PBoC’s 5-year LPR, a key reference for mortgage pricing, will be fixed for December. A cut of ≥10 bp would ease China mortgage and property credit conditions, improving balance sheets and sentiment across China’s broader equity complex. Internet and growth names in KWEB can benefit from a property-driven boost to domestic demand and risk appetite.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Short $LAZR — At the next US cash open, short LAZR at market provided it is not already down more than 25% versus its prior close. Place a stop 20% above entry and a profit target 30–50% below entry. Close any remaining position by the final regular session before the…
Luminar disclosed that Nasdaq will delist its common stock and suspend trading at the open on Dec 24, 2025, following voluntary Chapter 11 filings. Imminent delisting and bankruptcy typically drive forced selling and price convergence toward low recovery values, creating a short-biased setup into the last remaining trading sessions.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 8.0