PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-09 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed, front-end yields eased on JOLTS; miners and energy moves led headlines. • No major after-hours headlines. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — JOLTS grabbed the day: openings rose to 7.67mn, nudging front-end yield and easing Fed-path bets. Equity action was driven by a large miner merger, an energy asset closing and an ultra-long corporate note. Teck shareholders approved an all-stock tie-up with Anglo American, LS Power closed on BP’s US onshore wind business, and Chevron filed for $154mn of SOFR-linked long-dated notes. Markets parsed softer hiring alongside elevated vacancies while digesting M&A and funding moves.
Intraday — At 10:00 ET the BLS reported October JOLTS job openings at 7.670mn, highest in five months and up 12k from September, with hires down about 218k to 5.149mn, feeding expectations for an easier Fed path; later, at 11:00 ET LS Power confirmed closing its acquisition of BP Wind Energy’s US onshore portfolio adding ~1.3GW and lifting its operated fleet above 22.3GW; at 13:00 ET Chevron filed an 8-K disclosing roughly $154mn of SOFR-linked floating-rate notes due 2075; and at 14:31 ET Teck shareholders approved the ~$53bn all-stock merger with Anglo American to form Anglo-Teck, pending regulatory approvals.
After Hours — No notable 16:00–20:00 ET developments in the provided payload.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Short $ZN=F — If at 08:30 ET the Q3 ECI total compensation q/q prints ≥0.3pp above Street consensus, short ZN=F at 08:31–08:40 ET with a stop 0.35 points above entry and a profit target 0.75 points below, or fully exit by 13:45 ET ahead of the FOMC. No trade if…
The Q3 Employment Cost Index is a key gauge of wage and benefit inflation the Fed monitors alongside JOLTS and average hourly earnings. A sizable upside surprise in total compensation would reinforce labour‑cost pressures, pushing market expectations toward a less accommodative policy path and lifting yields, pressuring ZN=F into the FOMC.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $CL=F — If the 10:30 ET EIA report shows US commercial crude stocks (ex‑SPR) down ≥4mb w/w and both gasoline and distillate inventories also decline w/w, go long front‑month CL=F at 10:31–10:40 ET with a stop 1.5% below entry and a 3% upside target, or close by Thursday’s 14:30…
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is the primary high‑frequency gauge of US crude and product balances. A simultaneous draw in commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories would signal tightening physical markets and strong demand, supporting higher front‑month crude prices. Leveraging this surprise can capture a short‑term upside move in CL=F.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Short $SPY — At the December FOMC, if by 14:45 ET SPY is up ≥1.75% versus its 13:55 level following a 25bp cut and generally accommodative tone (no clear pushback against further easing), short SPY at 14:45–14:55 ET with a 1% stop above entry and a 1.5% profit target below…
The December FOMC delivers a widely anticipated policy decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections. With markets already pricing a 25bp cut, an outsized equity rally immediately after the statement and press conference may over‑discount easing. Fading an extreme initial SPY spike leverages potential mean reversion as investors digest the new rate path.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 7.0