PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-17 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks mixed as after-hours earnings and a blockbuster IPO dominated headlines. • After hours: Micron released fiscal Q1 results; Medline closed 41% above its IPO price. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets tracked a morning slate of corporate updates and a material M&A announcement, then digesting an earnings release and a large IPO after the close. Jabil and General Mills posted quarterly results during the session, while UWMC unveiled a stock-for-stock deal for Two Harbors. After the bell Micron issued its quarterly release and Medline’s IPO drew strong demand, closing sharply above its offer price.
Intraday — Early morning prints included Jabil’s and General Mills’ quarterly releases; detailed line items were not captured in the available snapshots. Separately UWMC announced an all-stock acquisition of Two Harbors, offering 2.3328 UWMC Class A shares per TWO share (implying $11.94 based on UWMC’s Dec. 16 close) and citing a 21% premium and an expected close in Q2 2026, with the combined firm to service over $400 billion in MSR.
After Hours — Micron published its fiscal Q1 2026 release after the close (4:01 PM ET); detailed financials and guidance were not extractable in this capture. Medline’s IPO priced and traded strongly, opening at $35 versus a $29 IPO and closing at $41; Reuters reports the company sold 216 million shares raising $6.26 billion and noted nine-month net income of $977 million on $20.6 billion revenue.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $MU — On 2025-12-18, if between 9:30–10:30 a.m. ET $MU trades at least 5% below its 2025-12-17 close, go long at market with a stop 3% below entry and a profit target 5% above entry or exit at the 2025-12-19 close, whichever comes first.
Micron released fiscal Q1 2026 results at 4:01 p.m. ET, a focused catalyst for DRAM/NAND cycle expectations and $MU’s valuation. Earnings can cause large one-day dislocations. This setup buys any pronounced downside gap the morning after the release, aiming to capture a short-term rebound as investors digest the detailed results and outlook.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $MDLN — On 2025-12-18, if $MDLN trades down to $37.00 or lower (≈10% below the $41.00 first-day close) at any time before 2:00 p.m. ET, go long with a stop at $35.00 and a profit target back at $41.00, or exit at the 2025-12-19 close if the target has…
Reuters reports Medline’s IPO priced at $29 and closed its first day at $41 after opening at $35, a 41% premium to the IPO price, signaling strong demand. This plan looks to buy a controlled pullback toward $37 on day two, assuming early profit-taking in a still-supported healthcare distributor story.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) ($NG=F) — On 2025-12-18, if between 10:30–11:00 a.m. ET (after the EIA storage report) $NG=F trades at least 1.0% above its 10:25 a.m. ET high, go long with a stop 1.5% below entry and a profit target 3.0% above entry, exiting any remaining position by…
The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 a.m. ET directly affects perceptions of storage balance tightness in $NG=F. A decisive breakout above the pre-release high suggests bullish interpretation of the storage change. This trade buys that post-report strength, seeking to capture an extended move over the next 24–48 hours.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0