PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-26 - Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks close near record highs in light post-holiday trade, yields quiet, metals lead the narrative. • After-hours: New York social-media warning law and China sanctions on US defense firms.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — A thin post-Christmas session left major U.S. indices near record highs while precious metals ripped higher, setting multiple records. Reuters noted silver jumped above ~$77/oz and gold and platinum hit fresh highs, a concurrent theme as markets closed. Activist activity at Target and an AI licensing move in semiconductors punctuated stock-specific flows. Policy and geopolitics added noise after the bell, with a new New York social-media warning law and Chinese sanctions on U.S. defense firms.
Intraday — During the regular session reporters flagged an activist investor taking a stake in Target, creating governance and capital-allocation pressure for retail peers, while precious metals surged in thin year‑end trade, with silver above $77/oz and spot/futures gold and platinum at record levels.
After Hours — In the 16:00–20:00 ET window Reuters summarized a light-volume close with indices near records as metals remained strong; Nvidia struck a non‑exclusive licensing deal for Groq inference tech and hired key executives; New York enacted a warning-label law for certain social features; China announced sanctions on 20 U.S. defense firms and 10 individuals; and U.S. carriers canceled over 1,000 flights due to winter storm Devin.
Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/3 Long $ITA — At the next regular U.S. cash session for ITA, if by 10:00 ET the ETF is down ≥1.5% versus its Dec 26 close, go long at market. Place a stop 3% below entry. Target a 2% rebound from entry or close the trade by the end of…
China announced sanctions on 20 U.S. defense firms and 10 individuals, including a Boeing unit, freezing China-based assets and banning certain business. Headlines may trigger a knee-jerk selloff in defense/aerospace names, but ETF-level revenue exposure to China is generally limited, creating a tactical opportunity to buy broad defense weakness on sanction optics.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 6.0 | clarity 7.0
2/3 Long $NVDA — At the next regular U.S. cash session for NVDA, place a buy order if during that session NVDA trades at least 1% below its opening price. Enter at that 1%+ intraday dip, set a stop 3% below entry, and target a 3–4% upside move or exit by…
Multiple outlets reported Nvidia signed a non-exclusive inference-technology licensing deal with Groq and that key Groq executives, including its CEO and president, are joining Nvidia. This strengthens Nvidia’s AI inference capabilities and talent bench. Any intraday dip after the news offers a defined-risk entry to add exposure to its AI semiconductor leadership.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 6.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Short $SNAP — At the next regular U.S. cash session for SNAP, if the opening print is within ±2% of its Dec 26 close, enter a short at the open. Place a stop 5% above entry. Target a 3% intraday decline; if not reached, close the position by the end…
New York’s law requires mental-health warning labels on social-media features like infinite scroll, autoplay and algorithmic feeds, with potential civil penalties. This increases regulatory and compliance overhang for ad-driven social platforms. SNAP, as a smaller, more concentrated social-media name, may face outsized near-term sentiment pressure versus larger, more diversified peers.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 4.0 | clarity 8.0