PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-05 - Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks rose as core PCE slowed to 2.8%, prompting bull‑steepening in U.S. Treasuries. • After hours: Essex reported results and distributions, etc. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Core PCE cooled to 2.80% y/y, helping equities and sparking a bull‑steepening move in U.S. Treasuries; regulators weighed in on large deals and several corporates announced dividends, exits and timing for upcoming earnings. The DOJ required divestitures for Constellation’s proposed Calpine acquisition, while the FTC flagged competitive concerns after Aya Healthcare’s terminated takeover of Cross Country. Midday corporate updates included portfolio shifts, insider investments and dividend declarations that may influence sector flows.
Intraday — Between 08:00–16:00 ET the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays showed core and headline PCE both up 0.20–0.30% m/m and 2.80% y/y at 10:00 a.m., supporting lower terminal‑rate expectations and a softer dollar; the DOJ announced required divestitures for Constellation’s ~$26.6bn Calpine deal and the FTC detailed antitrust concerns around the terminated $615mn Aya/Cross Country transaction; companies disclosed strategic moves and shareholder actions including CONMED’s exit from gastroenterology lines, CPI Card Group insider and sponsor investments, Empire State Realty Trust’s Q4 dividend, AES’s quarterly cash dividend and PNC’s scheduled Q4/FY25 results timing, and Cango published its November bitcoin‑mining update.
After Hours — From 16:00–20:00 ET Essex Property Trust reported third‑quarter 2025 results and declared quarterly distributions after the close, and Manchester United announced it will report first‑quarter fiscal 2026 results later in December and host an investor call.
Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/2 Long $ESS — At the next regular U.S. session open, go long ESS at market if it opens within ±2% of the prior regular-session close; take profit at 4% above entry or exit at the second session’s close, whichever comes first; place a stop-loss 3% below entry.
Q3 2025 results showed year-on-year growth in net income, FFO and Core FFO per diluted share while reaffirming regular quarterly distributions, signaling healthy cash-flow momentum and payout sustainability. That combination typically supports modest near-term multiple expansion for West Coast multifamily REITs like ESS as investors price in improving fundamentals and stable income.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/2 Short $MANU — At the next regular U.S. session open, if MANU trades between -1% and +1% versus the prior close, short at market; target a cover 3% below entry or exit at the second session’s close, whichever comes first; set a stop-loss 3% above entry.
Manchester United merely set the date for its Q1 FY26 earnings release and investor call, adding no new financial or strategic information. With the next fundamental update not until later in December, this scheduling headline may see limited follow-through, creating scope for a minor drift lower as short-term event interest fades.
Trade credibility: actionability 5.0 | timeliness 4.0 | clarity 7.0