PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2025-12-04 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks steadied while yields reacted to mixed jobs, factory orders and consumer-staples earnings. • Retail and staples earnings beat while SoFi launched a $1.5bn equity offering. • Three Trade Ideas
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets digested a modestly firmer labor snapshot, rising factory orders and a cluster of retail and staples results; guidance beats supported discount- and grocery-focused names while impairment charges weighed on some reported profits. Initial jobless claims edged down to 216k, the four-week moving average slipped slightly, and factory orders rose 0.7% in September. Kroger and Dollar General reported upside in sales or guidance, Hormel booked impairments but set higher adjusted EPS guidance, and SoFi announced a $1.5bn primary equity offering.
Intraday — Morning releases showed initial claims dipping to 216k at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders up 0.7% at 10:00 a.m.; grocery and staples firms reported mixed earnings early, with Kroger posting higher adjusted EPS despite impairment charges and Hormel logging non-cash impairments but guiding FY26 adjusted EPS above FY25, while Dollar General beat estimates and raised full-year EPS and comp-sales guidance; SoFi filed a $1.5bn underwritten common offering around midday.
After Hours — No 4:00–8:00 p.m. ET items were included in this feed.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/1 Short $ES=F — On Fri Dec 5, between 8:31–8:45 a.m. ET, if the November nonfarm payrolls headline is at least 100k above market consensus or the unemployment rate falls versus its prior reading, short ES=F at market. Take profit if ES=F trades 0.7% below entry; place a stop 0.4% above…
The Employment Situation report is a key input for Fed policy expectations and growth sentiment. A materially stronger labor print or lower unemployment tightens perceived policy, supporting yields and the dollar while pressuring US equities. S&P futures (ES=F) provide a liquid proxy to express this short-risk macro view around the 8:30 a.m. ET release.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0