PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-02 - Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks ended mixed on EV delivery headlines and little rate news, pressuring sentiment into the close. • After hours: no major headlines reported. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Tesla’s weaker delivery update and Rivian’s operational filing dominated the tape, tilting focus toward EV demand and near-term cadence. Reuters reported Tesla’s Q4 deliveries fell 16% y/y and 2025 deliveries declined almost 9%, with BYD overtaking Tesla in full-year BEV volume. Rivian published its Q4 2025 production and delivery figures and set the date for its Q4 and full-year results. Together the items refocused investor attention on volume trends and upcoming company-level reporting.
Intraday — Between 08:00–16:00 ET, Reuters published Tesla’s delivery figures showing a significant y/y decline and a loss of the 2025 BEV volume lead to BYD, while Rivian used a Business Wire operational update to release its Q4 2025 production/delivery numbers and announce the date for its quarterly and full-year results, keeping the market centered on EV supply and revenue cadence.
After Hours — From 16:00–20:00 ET the payload records no additional after-hours headlines.
Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/3 Short $SPY — On Jan 3, between 10:30–11:00 ET (after the 10:15 Fed ASSA speech), if SPY is trading at least 0.8% above its 10:00 ET price, enter a short. Set a stop 1.2% above entry and a profit target 0.8% below entry. Exit any remaining position by Jan 5…
The 10:15 ASSA session focuses on lifetime experiences and monetary policy, with only slides and a short essay plus audience Q&A and no media Q&A, suggesting limited hard news. Any sharp SPY rally driven by perceived dovish nuance may be an overreaction, offering a tactical opportunity to fade an intraday duration-sensitive equity spike.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $FXI — At the China RatingDog Services PMI release at 20:45 ET on Jan 3, if the PMI prints at or above 52.7, enter a long FXI position at the next regular US cash-session open. Set a stop 2.0% below entry and a profit target 3.5% above entry. Exit…
China’s RatingDog Services PMI previously printed 52.1 in Nov 2025, down from 52.6 in Oct, indicating modestly softening but still expansionary services momentum. A clear upside surprise to at least 52.7 would signal re-acceleration in services activity, likely improving sentiment toward Chinese equities and EM beta; FXI provides a liquid proxy to capture that shift.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $DXY — At 15:00 ET on Jan 3, 30 minutes after the 14:30 Fed ASSA session begins, if DXY is at least 0.3% above its 14:25 ET level, enter a long DXY position. Place a stop 0.4% below entry and target an additional 0.5% upside. Close any remaining position…
The ASSA session on “Global Growth in Transition: Divergence, Policy Choices, and Risks” comes with published text and audience Q&A, favoring clearer policy messaging on growth divergence and associated risks. A post-speech DXY spike would signal a stronger-USD narrative via rates and risk sentiment, which this setup seeks to ride for a short tactical follow-through move.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0