PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-12 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks focused on Treasury supply and Myriad's FY26 revenue and gross-margin guidance. • After hours: no qualifying postmarket releases identified. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Headlines centered on corporate guidance and Treasury issuance; Myriad preannounced FY25/FY26 targets while the Treasury ran a competitive long-note auction. Myriad gave preliminary Q4/FY25 revenue ranges and introduced FY26 revenue of $860–$880 million and adjusted gross margin of 68%–69%. The Treasury announced reopenings for 30-year and 6-week bills and sold $39.0 billion of a 9-year, 10-month note at a 4.854% high yield (BTC 2.45). No qualifying postmarket filings emerged through 20:00 ET.
Intraday — At 08:30 ET Myriad preannounced Q4 and FY2025 revenue ranges and introduced FY2026 revenue and adjusted gross-margin guidance; the release was preliminary and unaudited. The Treasury published offering announcements at 11:00 ET for a $22.0 billion 30-year reopening and at 11:30 ET for a $72.0 billion 6-week bill reopening, both to be auctioned on 2026-01-13 and issued 2026-01-15. At 13:00 ET the Treasury reopened $39.0 billion of 9-year, 10-month notes, which stopped at a 4.854% yield with a 2.45 bid-to-cover.
After Hours — Between 16:00–20:00 ET no qualifying postmarket items with concrete, directly priceable numbers were identified in the authorized scope.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $TLT — At 08:30 ET Dec CPI release, if core CPI m/m ≤0.2% OR core CPI y/y ≤2.6% (vs expectations of +0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y), go long $TLT between 09:30–09:45 ET. Use a 1.0% downside stop from entry and take profit on a 1.8% gain or by the…
Consensus expects sticky 2.7% y/y core and +0.3% m/m. A softer core print (no acceleration or clear downside surprise) should push the Fed path dovishly, compress term premium, and support long-duration Treasuries. $TLT offers a liquid way to capture a short-term rally if inflation disappoints on the low side.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long 30Y U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (CBOT) ($ZB=F) — Following the 13:00 ET $22 bn 30-year reopening, if bid-to-cover ≥2.5x AND the stop-out yield tails by ≤1 bp versus the when-issued yield, go long $ZB=F immediately after results (within 5 minutes). Place a 0.7% downside stop and target a 1.3%…
The 30-year reopening directly tests demand for long-duration risk and the term premium. A strong auction, indicated by a high bid-to-cover and minimal tail versus the when-issued yield, would confirm robust investor appetite for duration and likely support a follow-through rally in long bond futures such as $ZB=F.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long $ITB — At 10:00 ET, if the delayed Sep/Oct new residential sales report shows October SAAR at least 5% above September SAAR AND both months with positive y/y growth, go long $ITB between 10:05–10:30 ET. Set a 2% downside stop and target a 4% gain or exit by the…
The dual-month release for September and October new home sales gives a concentrated read on housing demand. A meaningful sequential and y/y acceleration would signal a resilient housing cycle, improving earnings visibility for homebuilders. $ITB concentrates U.S. homebuilder exposure to express a short-term bullish reaction to strong sales data.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 7.0