PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-28 - Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks and front-end rates held steady after the Fed decision; earnings led the newsflow. • After-hours saw a cluster of large tech and auto reports driving late-session moves.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — The FOMC held the federal funds target range, a focal point for front-end yields and equity discount rates ($TLT, $SPY). The Fed also published an implementation note setting IORB/ON RRP operational rates effective Jan 29, affecting money-market mechanics ($SHY). Energy inventories showed a crude build, weighing on prompt balances ($CL=F). Postmarket earnings from mega-cap tech and an auto update dominated headlines and will set early tone tomorrow ($QQQ, $META).
Intraday — From 08:00–16:00 ET, the Fed announced no change to the 4.25%–4.50% target range and released a policy implementation note effective Jan 29, which markets parsed for administered-rate mechanics and funding implications ($TLT, $SHY). The EIA reported a 3.5M‑barrel rise in commercial crude inventories, pressuring energy benchmarks and related equities ($CL=F, $XLE). Market positioning ahead of the 2:00pm statement kept trading contained into the close ($SPY).
After Hours — Between 16:00–20:00 ET a cluster of big reports landed: Meta posted Q4 revenue and EPS details ($META) while Microsoft disclosed FQ2 results with strong cloud growth and Azure commentary ($MSFT). Tesla filed an 8‑K updating Q4/FY2025 results and margins, adding auto-margin context for EV suppliers ($TSLA). Those releases are likely to drive sector dispersion into tomorrow’s session ($QQQ).
Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $AAPL — After Apple reports on 2026-01-29 (scheduled 16:30 ET), if the fiscal Q1 2026 press release shows revenue ≥ $140B, go long AAPL during 16:35–17:00 ET in after-hours. Target a +5% move from entry by 2026-01-30 close, with a stop-loss at -3% from entry or at 2026-01-30 close…
Apple enters its fiscal Q1 2026 holiday-quarter print with Reuters consensus revenue around $138.43B versus prior-year $124.3B. If reported revenue reaches at least $140B, that would indicate stronger-than-anticipated demand across iPhone and Services. Such an upside surprise can justify a near-term re-rating and short-term momentum higher into the next session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $META — On 2026-01-29, if META trades between -2% and +4% versus its 2026-01-28 regular-session close during 09:35–10:00 ET, go long at market. Target a +6% move from entry by 2026-01-30 close, with a stop-loss at -3% from entry or at 2026-01-30 close, whichever occurs first.
Meta’s Q4 2025 revenue grew 21% y/y to $48.39B with net income $20.84B and diluted EPS $8.88, implying very strong profitability and operating leverage (operating income $23.37B). Family daily active people reached 3.35B, underscoring scale. A controlled post-earnings open offers an attractive entry for short-term upside as investors digest robust results.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long $MSFT — On 2026-01-29, wait for the first 30 minutes of trading in MSFT. If between 10:00–15:30 ET the price breaks above that 30-minute intraday high by at least 0.5%, enter long at market. Target a +4% move from entry by 2026-01-30 close, with a stop-loss at -2% from…
Microsoft posted FY26 Q2 revenue of $76.44B (+12% y/y) with diluted EPS $3.51. Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5B (+21% y/y) and Azure and other cloud services grew 39%, highlighting strong demand for cloud and AI-related workloads. A breakout above the initial range could attract momentum buyers over the next one to two sessions.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0