PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-15 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks rose as Treasury yields fell after softer jobless claims and housing policy. • Postmarket: US–Taiwan trade deal announced; foreign Treasury holdings hit record. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Stocks rallied into the close as a lighter-than-expected initial jobless claims print and a drop in mortgage rates pushed yields lower; bank and asset-manager beats supported risk appetite. Goldman, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock posted stronger-than-expected results and capital-return signals during the session. Fitch warned that any major erosion of Fed independence would be credit negative, a backdrop for rates and term-premium talk. After the close, Treasury TIC data showed record foreign holdings while a US–Taiwan trade deal landed.
Intraday — Through the day markets digested a mix of macro, policy and earnings: delayed import/export price data showed modest gains for September–November, Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.06% after FHFA MBS purchases, and initial jobless claims dropped to 198k with continuing claims easing; Fitch flagged risks to US sovereign credit if Fed independence erodes. Earnings beat across the financials included BlackRock’s strong AUM and revenue, Morgan Stanley’s IB rebound and dividend increase, and Goldman’s robust trading, IB fees and raised dividend.
After Hours — Postmarket Treasury TIC data showed foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose to $9.355tn in November while China’s holdings fell to $682.6bn; Reuters also cited $85.6bn of foreign inflows that month. Later, Reuters reported a US–Taiwan trade deal cutting many tariffs to 15% and outlining sizable US semiconductor investment and financing commitments.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $TLT — If Dec Industrial Production m/m released at 09:15 ET Fri prints ≤ -0.2%, go long TLT between 09:16–09:45 ET. Target a +1.0% move versus entry by Fri close; place a -0.5% stop versus entry. If the m/m print is above -0.2%, do not enter this trade.
The Federal Reserve’s G.17 report on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization directly informs growth and Fed policy expectations. A materially negative December m/m print would signal weaker real activity and support lower yields at the front and intermediate of the Treasury curve. That favors adding duration tactically via TLT on confirmation of downside growth surprise.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Short $SPY — On Fri Jan 16, if SPY is up ≥ +1.0% versus Thu close by 15:00 ET, short SPY between 15:00–15:15 ET. Target a -0.5% move versus entry into the 16:00 ET cash close; use a stop at +0.5% versus entry. If SPY is up less than 1.0%…
The standard monthly options expiration on Fri Jan 16 can amplify dealer hedging flows and closing-auction dynamics, increasing intraday realized volatility in SPY. When SPY trades significantly higher into mid-afternoon, gamma and delta rebalancing around expiring positions often encourage late-day mean reversion. A tactical short into strength aims to capture a modest fade into the close.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long $TSM — On Fri Jan 16, go long TSM between 09:35–10:00 ET if it is trading between -1% and +2% versus Thu close (avoid chasing a larger gap). Target a +4% move versus entry by Fri close; use a -2% stop versus entry. If TSM opens above +2%, skip…
Reuters reported a U.S.–Taiwan trade deal cutting tariffs on many Taiwanese exports to 15% from 20% and including substantial U.S. semiconductor and technology investment and financing commitments. This improves Taiwan tech exporters’ economics and U.S. demand visibility, with TSM a direct beneficiary, so a controlled long seeks follow-through buying as global investors digest the agreement Friday.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0