PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-16 - Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks drifted as stronger industrial production and hawkish Fed signals pressured yields and cyclicals. • After-hours: dividend declared, a financing agreement filed, and an NYSE notice.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Industrial production rose 0.40% m/m in December and capacity utilization ticked to 76.30%, while Fed commentary flagged persistent inflation risks; that mix lifted rate-sensitivity and weighed on cyclicals. President Trump’s remarks about keeping Kevin Hassett and Governor Bowman’s hawkish comments both kept front-end policy risk elevated. Walmart’s announced U.S. leadership reshuffle added retailer-specific execution uncertainty. Postmarket SEC filings included a small cash dividend, a financing pact with a $5.0m prepayment and 20.0m registered shares, and an NYSE non‑compliance disclosure.
Intraday — The Fed’s G.17 at 9:15 showed IP +0.40% m/m and manufacturing up modestly, supporting growth momentum; at 10:42 the President’s comment about Kevin Hassett fed Fed-leadership chatter and front-end rate risk, and at 12:20 Gov. Bowman reiterated inflation risks and the case for restrictive policy; midday Walmart said its U.S. CEO will step down and management roles will shift, raising near-term execution and margin questions.
After Hours — Between 17:00–17:30 several 8‑K filings arrived: Hyperscale Data declared a $0.00125 per share cash dividend payable Feb. 28, NovaBay disclosed an amended financing with a $5.0m prepayment and registration of 20.0m shares, MicroVision received an NYSE notice of non‑compliance on listing price criteria, and Western Uranium filed an 8‑K that includes a press release as an exhibit.
Three Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/3 Short S&P 500 E-mini Futures (CME) ($ES=F) — On Sunday’s Globex reopen (18:00–22:00 ET), if ES=F opens at least 0.8% above Friday’s official regular-session close, initiate a short position at or near the opening price. Target a 0.4% move back toward Friday’s close, use a stop 0.6% above entry, and…
With no scheduled US macro releases on Saturday, US equity futures will key off unscheduled weekend headlines and positioning rather than data. The Sunday evening Globex reopen can see gap moves in thinner liquidity. Fading a sizeable upside gap seeks to capture mean reversion as liquidity normalizes into the regular Monday cash session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Short $NBY — At the next regular US cash-session open, short NBY at market. Set a stop 12% above entry and a take-profit 15% below entry. If neither level is reached, cover the entire position at the close of the second full regular session after entry.
NovaBay’s 8-K describes an amended financing with Avenue Capital, including registration of 20 million currently unissued shares and a $5 million prepayment. The newly registered shares create visible equity overhang and potential dilution, likely pressuring valuation as the market discounts future supply from the financing arrangement in upcoming sessions.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 5.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Short $MVIS — If at the next regular US cash-session open MVIS trades at or above the prior close, then on any intraday rally of at least 8% above the opening price, initiate a short. Use a stop 10% above entry, a take-profit 12% below entry, and close any remaining…
MicroVision disclosed an NYSE notice that it is not in compliance with minimum average price listing standards. This highlights delisting risk and can constrain financing flexibility, typically weighing on investor sentiment. Shorting into post-notice strength offers an opportunity to position for further downside as listing-risk concerns are digested by the market.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 5.0 | clarity 7.0