PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-06 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks finished lower as rates talk stayed cautious and sanctions lifted oil prices. • Nvidia got China regulatory approval and markets ended slightly down; no earnings cluster. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Stocks closed modestly lower as traders digested competing forces: U.S. oil-sanctions headlines pushed crude higher, Fed messaging emphasized finely tuned future rate moves, and single-name shocks (leadership and AI-hardware comments) drove sector dispersion. AIG’s CEO transition weighed on insurance names while HVAC and data-center suppliers fell after comments about next‑gen chip efficiency. Late approval news for a major GPU to ship to China offered a positive lift for semiconductor sentiment into the close.
Intraday — From the open through 4:00 pm, Reuters reported oil rose after U.S. comments on punishing buyers of Venezuelan oil, while Richmond Fed President Barkin said future rate moves should be finely tuned to incoming data; Nvidia CEO remarks that next‑gen chips could reduce cooling needs spurred notable drops in HVAC/cooling-exposed stocks and AIG shares fell after announcing a new CEO‑elect and leadership shift.
After Hours — After 4:00 pm Reuters noted China’s MIIT approved the sale of a key Nvidia GPU, raising shipment and revenue visibility amid export‑control scrutiny, and the U.S. market wrap showed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished modestly lower as markets absorbed the day’s policy and corporate headlines.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $TLT — If at 08:15 ET on 2026-01-07 ADP Dec private payrolls print ≤ 0K versus the Investing.com forecast of +50K, go long TLT between 08:20–09:30 ET at market. Target a 1.0% gain in TLT by the 2026-01-08 close, with a stop 0.5% below entry.
The ADP report is a labor-momentum signal that feeds into front-end rate expectations and duration. A print at or below 0K versus the +50K forecast would flag softer private hiring, encouraging markets to price easier policy. That should support Treasury duration, making a conditional long in TLT attractive into the following day.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) ($CL=F) — If at 10:30 ET on 2026-01-07 EIA reports a US crude inventory draw ≥ 3.0M bbl versus the -1.200M bbl forecast, go long CL=F in the first 10 minutes after release. Target a 2.0% WTI price gain by the 2026-01-08 close, with…
The EIA petroleum report is central for WTI pricing. A crude draw of at least 3.0M bbl versus the -1.200M bbl forecast would indicate tighter US stocks and potentially stronger demand or constrained supply. Such a bullish surprise usually supports prompt WTI structure and futures, favoring a near-term long in CL=F.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $NVDA — On 2026-01-07, buy NVDA at the US cash open (09:30–09:35 ET) provided premarket NVDA is within +3% of the 2026-01-06 close. Place a stop 2% below entry and a profit-take 4% above entry, exiting any remaining position by the 2026-01-08 close.
Reuters reports China’s MIIT approved Nvidia’s H200 GPU sale, improving clarity on China shipments amid export-control concerns. Regulatory clearance for a key accelerator should support sentiment on Nvidia’s China revenue pipeline and, near term, favor a relief bid in NVDA as investors reassess downside scenarios around halted shipments.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0