PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-13 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks fell while yields held after in-line CPI; credit-card rate plan hit financials. • Earnings beats and guidance from banks and airlines; credit-card rate plan dominated headlines. • Three Trade
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Stocks slipped into the close as Reuters-reported December CPI roughly matched expectations and Treasury yields held, while financials underperformed on concern about a credit-card rate plan. BNY posted an adjusted profit beat and raised its medium-term ROTCE target, and Delta guided 2026 EPS and FCF while ordering Boeing 787-10s. The combination of an in-line inflation print and sector-specific policy headlines set the tone for risk assets into the close.
Intraday — Throughout the session markets digested a 0.3% m/m December CPI print (core +0.2% m/m; headline +2.7% y/y, core +2.6% y/y) released mid-afternoon, early earnings such as BNY’s Q4 beat and ROTCE upgrade, and Delta’s 2026 guidance and fleet order; shelter and energy moves were highlighted in the CPI detail.
After Hours — A Reuters late-day wrap noted U.S. equities fell with financials weak amid headlines about a credit-card rate plan; the story dominated post-close market commentary.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long 10Y U.S. Treasury Note Futures (CBOT) ($ZN=F) — If at 08:30 ET on 2026-01-14 the BLS reports Dec headline PPI at ≤0.10% m/m and ≤2.40% y/y, versus the +0.30% m/m and +2.70% y/y consensus snapshot, go long ZN=F within 5 minutes of the release. Set a 0.30% downside stop…
Dec PPI directly informs producer inflation trends and the Fed path. With consensus and prior at +0.30% m/m and +2.70% y/y, a clear downside surprise would undermine near-term inflation persistence concerns and support longer-duration Treasuries. Going long 10Y futures on a materially softer headline print targets the immediate repricing of rate expectations in the next trading session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $SPY — On 2026-01-14, after the 14:00 ET Beige Book release, if between 14:00 and 14:15 ET SPY trades at least 0.50% above its 13:55 ET level and ZN=F is higher than its 13:55 ET price, enter a long SPY position. Place a 1.0% stop below entry and a…
The Beige Book’s qualitative tone on wages, prices, and demand can quickly shift Fed policy expectations and equity risk appetite. A post-release pattern of SPY strength combined with rising Treasury futures would indicate markets reading the report as benign on inflation and growth. Buying SPY into that confirmation aims to capture a 1–2 day relief bid in risk assets.
Trade credibility: actionability 6.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 6.0
3/3 Short $XLF — On 2026-01-14, between 09:35 and 12:00 ET, if XLF trades at least 1.0% above its 09:30 ET opening price while SPY is up less than 0.5% versus its own open, enter a short XLF position. Use a stop 1.5% above entry and a 2.5% profit target or…
Reuters highlights that Wall Street fell with financials leading declines on concerns around a credit card rate plan, underscoring fresh regulatory headline risk for the sector. Policy-driven shocks often see early-session rebounds faded as uncertainty persists. Fading strength in XLF against a relatively steadier SPY expresses continued sector underperformance risk over the next 24–48 hours.
Trade credibility: actionability 6.0 | timeliness 6.0 | clarity 6.0