PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-21 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
Tickers: $TLT $QQQ $DXY • Stocks fell and yields rose as S&P dropped 1% on tariff headlines. • Earnings included Halliburton beat; Trump stepped back from EU Greenland tariff threat
Market Wrap
Market Recap — U.S. equities declined after trade headlines and mixed economic signals weighed on risk appetite. Energy services results showed a beat but cautious 2026 North America revenue guidance. The Treasury’s 20-year reopening cleared at 4.846% with solid demand, supporting higher term premium. Overall, rate-sensitive and growth names underperformed into the close.
Intraday — Morning data flow included the NAR Pending Home Sales update at 10:00 ET (key values not available), followed by Halliburton’s Q4 beat and guidance comments at ~10:20 that flagged flat North America revenue and a high-single-digit 2026 decline; a $83M pre-tax charge was also reported. At 13:00 ET the Treasury sold $13.0B of 20-year bonds at a 4.846% high yield with a 2.50 bid-to-cover and 65.4% indirect participation, influencing front- and belly-curve moves and rate-sensitive equities.
After Hours — Markets reacted to a Reuters report that the S&P 500 closed down roughly 1.0% and the Nasdaq about 1.4%, after the president publicly stepped back from imposing tariffs on Europe over Greenland, reducing immediate trade-war risk. No additional major company earnings cluster beyond the earlier Halliburton release was reported in this window.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $TLT — If at 08:30 ET on 2026-01-22 initial jobless claims print ≥230k and continuing claims are ≥1,920k, go long TLT on the first liquid pullback after 08:31 ET (within 08:31–08:45 ET); target +1.0% versus entry by the 2026-01-23 cash close, with a stop-loss at -0.5% versus entry.
The jobless-claims release is a clean, time-specific read on whether labor-market softness is emerging after prior readings near 198k. A meaningful jump above the ~200k handle and higher continuing claims would signal cooling labor momentum, likely lowering front-end yields and supporting a duration rally via TLT in the following 24–48 hours.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $QQQ — On 2026-01-22, go long QQQ during the 09:30–09:35 ET cash open if QQQ is trading between -0.5% and +0.5% versus its 2026-01-21 close; set take-profit at +1.5% versus entry and stop-loss at -1.0%, exiting any remaining position by 2026-01-22 16:00 ET.
Reuters notes the S&P 500 fell about 1% and the Nasdaq 1.4% while Trump stepped back from near-term EU tariff threats over Greenland, reducing immediate trade-war risk. Tech underperformed into this de-escalation, creating scope for a modest relief rebound in QQQ over the next session if overnight macro news stays quiet.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long $DXY — If at 10:00 ET the BEA release shows core PCE y/y for November at or above 3.0% and at least 0.2 percentage points higher than October’s core PCE y/y, go long DXY during the 10:00–10:10 ET window; target +0.5% versus entry by 2026-01-23 close, with a stop-loss…
Personal income, spending, and PCE inflation for Oct–Nov directly inform near-term inflation and consumption tracking. A clear acceleration in PCE, especially if core y/y moves to or above roughly 3%, would challenge any benign inflation narrative and support a firmer USD, making DXY an efficient way to express a short-horizon hawkish-surprise trade.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0