PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-14 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks slipped as stronger retail and PPI lifted yields and the dollar, repricing rate-sensitive names. • No material after-hours headlines reported. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Stronger-than-expected consumption and firmer wholesale inflation set the tone, pushing front-end yields higher and the dollar firmer while rate-sensitive equities were repriced; the Fed Beige Book added qualitative color on labor, prices and demand. Retail and food services sales for November rose 0.60% m/m (control group +0.40%), with a $735.9bn level noted. Producer prices showed final demand +0.20% m/m and +3.00% y/y, with energy and gasoline sizable contributors.
Intraday — At 8:30 a.m. ET the Census report showed advance retail and food services sales +0.60% m/m (control +0.40%) and a $735.9bn level, and the BLS PPI release showed final demand +0.20% m/m and +3.00% y/y with final demand goods up 0.90% m/m and gasoline sharply higher; markets reacted with higher front-end yields and a firmer USD, pressuring duration-sensitive equities. The Fed released the Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET, providing qualitative district-level color on labor, prices and demand that market participants monitored for policy implications.
After Hours — No material after-hours corporate or policy headlines were reported between 4:00–8:00 p.m. ET.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Short $TLT — If the 8:30 a.m. ET initial jobless claims release for the week ending Jan 10 prints below the prior week’s level, enter a short $TLT position between 9:35–9:45 a.m. ET on Jan 15; use a 1.0% stop above entry and take profit on a 1.5% gain or…
Weekly initial jobless claims are a key gauge of labor-market strength. A decline versus the prior reading signals resilience, reducing perceived urgency for Fed rate cuts. That typically lifts front-end yields and pressures duration. Shorting $TLT after a stronger labor print seeks to capture a bearish repricing in long Treasuries over the next 24–48 hours.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
2/3 Long $SPY — If the Jan Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index prints at or above 0 at 8:30 a.m. ET (vs forecast -1.6 and prior -10.2), go long $SPY at the cash open, entering between 9:30–9:40 a.m. ET on Jan 15; set a 1.0% stop below entry and a 2.0% profit…
The Philly Fed survey tracks regional manufacturing momentum and price pressures. A move from deeply negative prior levels to ≥0 would signal a notable rebound in activity, supporting growth expectations and cyclical risk appetite. That backdrop tends to favor equities broadly, so a tactical long in $SPY aims to monetize a positive surprise over the following 1–2 sessions.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) ($NG=F) — If the 10:30 a.m. ET EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report on Jan 15 shows a U.S. storage withdrawal larger than market consensus (indicating a tighter-than-expected balance), go long front-month $NG=F within 5 minutes of the release; use a 3.0% stop below entry…
The EIA’s weekly natural gas storage data directly inform the near-term supply/demand balance at Henry Hub. A withdrawal exceeding consensus implies tighter market conditions, which typically support higher spot and front-month futures prices. A prompt long in $NG=F following a bullish storage surprise aims to exploit the immediate repricing of natural gas over the next 24–48 hours.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0