PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-30 - Market Wrap and Trades For The Next Trading Day
• Stocks drifted lower as PPI surprised higher, yields rose and Tesla legal news took focus. • Delaware court cut Tesla fee award to $70.9m, reducing liability significantly.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — PPI surprised above estimates, lifting Treasury futures and repricing risk late in the session ($TY=F) while broad equities slipped ($SPY). The PPI jump heightened near-term Fed path debate and supported the dollar, tightening financial conditions. Corporate headlines from a cable subscriber miss and biotech regulatory scrutiny added to sector dispersion. A late court ruling cut Tesla’s fee award, becoming the dominant after-hours headline.
Intraday — US December PPI rose 0.50% m/m, driven by services, pressuring yields and the dollar and weighing on cyclical names ($TY=F) while cable subscriber weakness from Charter Communications dented media shares ($CHTR). Regulators also flagged trial conduct at Corcept, lifting biotech risk premia ($CORT). Discussion of a likely Fed governor pick added to rate-and-policy chatter into the close.
After Hours — Delaware’s Supreme Court trimmed the fee award in the Tesla director-pay case to $70.9m, materially lowering the company’s legal exposure and setting the tone for after-hours trading ($TSLA). The ruling, combined with the day’s inflation-driven rate repricing, framed overnight sentiment for broad equities and futures ($SPY).
Market Wrap and Trades For The Next Trading Day
1/3 Long $TSLA — Go long $TSLA at the next regular US cash-session open after this ruling and exit at that session’s close.
The Delaware Supreme Court cut Tesla’s fee liability in a director-pay lawsuit to $70.9m from $176.1m, about 60% below the lower court award. Together with directors returning roughly $277m in cash and stock options, this meaningfully reduces the net legal cash outlay and modestly lowers perceived governance and litigation overhang.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 6.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $TY=F — If a partial US government shutdown begins at 12:01 a.m. ET Saturday and is still in effect 24 hours later, then go long $TY=F at the first Sunday evening futures reopen and hold through the end of the first full US cash-session on Monday.
Reuters said the Senate passed a spending package, but the House will not act until Monday, making a partial US government shutdown likely starting 12:01 a.m. ET Saturday. If the shutdown persists for at least one day, markets may price greater macro-data and agency disruption risk, supporting safe-haven demand for intermediate US Treasuries.
Trade credibility: actionability 6.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Short $VSTA — If Vasta files a Form 15 with the SEC by January 31, 2026 23:59 ET as indicated, then short $VSTA at the next regular US cash-session open and cover by that session’s close.
Vasta Platform stated it intends to file Form 15 before January 31, 2026 to suspend certain SEC reporting obligations. Such a move typically reduces transparency and liquidity and can make the stock ineligible for some investors. Confirmation of the filing is a discrete catalyst that may prompt de-rating and incremental selling pressure.
Trade credibility: actionability 6.0 | timeliness 7.0 | clarity 7.0