PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-29 - Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks closed mixed as Treasury yields held steady and Apple dominated headlines. • Apple reported stronger Q1 revenue and EPS and announced a dividend.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — A busy day of macro data and a hefty corporate beat set the tape. US initial jobless claims eased to 209,000 while the trade deficit widened to $56.8B, keeping attention on growth and dollar dynamics ($SPY, $DXY). Apple’s fiscal Q1 print of $143.756B revenue and $2.84 EPS with a $0.26 dividend was the after-hours focal point, lifting sector leadership ($AAPL, $QQQ).
Intraday — At 08:30 ET the DOL reported initial claims fell to 209,000, a small decrease from the prior revised 210,000, and continuing claims dropped to 1.827M, signaling ongoing labor-market tightness that feeds into rates and real‑money positioning ($SPY, $DXY). Also at 08:30 BEA/Census showed the goods and services trade deficit widened to $56.8B in November as exports fell and imports rose, a swing that pressures growth tracking and cyclicals ($TLT, $SOXX).
After Hours — Apple released fiscal Q1 results at 17:00 ET: revenue $143.756B, diluted EPS $2.84, iPhone sales $85.269B, Services $30.013B, and a $0.26/share dividend, driving tech leadership and implications for index and supplier flows ($AAPL, $QQQ). No other material after‑hours items were in the payload through 20:57 ET.
Market Wrap and Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Long $AXP — If American Express reports Q4 2025 EPS ≥ $3.8 in its 2026-01-30 before-open release, go long $AXP at the U.S. cash equity open on 2026-01-30 and exit the position by the regular-session close that day.
AXP is reporting Q4 2025 with vendor consensus EPS estimates ranging from about $3.54 to $3.98. A print at or above $3.8 would represent a clear beat versus the mid-point of that band, implying resilient billed business and credit performance. That should support a relief rally in $AXP and improve sentiment in $XLF.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $AAPL — Go long $AAPL at the U.S. cash equity open on 2026-01-30 and exit the position no later than the regular-session close on 2026-01-30.
Apple’s fiscal Q1 showed strong acceleration: net sales $143.756B up 16% y/y and diluted EPS $2.84 up 19% y/y, with iPhone revenue rising to $85.269B and Services to $30.013B. The board also declared a $0.26 dividend. This combination of broad-based growth and cash return supports positive follow-through buying next session.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 8.0
3/3 Long $TIP — If the Treasury’s 10-Year TIPS reopening auction results released around 13:00 ET on 2026-01-30 show bid-to-cover ≥2.5x, then go long $TIP during the same afternoon session and close the position by the regular-session close on 2026-01-30.
A strong 10-year TIPS reopening, indicated by bid-to-cover of at least 2.5x, would signal firm demand for real duration and confidence in inflation hedges. That should compress real yields and support TIPS prices. A same-day long in $TIP aims to capture this auction-driven repricing in the inflation-protected curve.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0