PickAlpha Evening Insights | 2026-01-08 - Three Trades For Tomorrow
• Stocks drifted alongside U.S. rates as corporate guidance and WD‑40 earnings dominated headlines. • WD‑40 reported Q1 sales $153.5m, non‑GAAP EPS $1.39 and FY guide $5.40–$5.70. • Three Trade Ideas.
Market Wrap
Market Recap — Markets spent the day parsing corporate guidance and scheduled macro prints with numbers unavailable in real time; sentiment leaned on company-issued outlooks and an after-hours WD‑40 beat and guide. Early-morning guidance from Collegium reset revenue and EBITDA expectations, while Astronics posted preliminary Q4 and FY revenue and issued 2026 revenue guidance. Standard 08:30 releases (weekly jobless claims, international trade, productivity/unit labor costs) printed but authoritative figures were not retrieved in this session, leaving macro details blank. After the close, WD‑40’s quarterly results and FY guide provided the clearest earnings signal into next week.
Intraday — At 08:00 ET Collegium issued FY2026 guidance including product net revenue $805–$825m and adjusted EBITDA $455–$475m and noted JORNAY PM revenue guidance; the 08:30 ET slate delivered weekly jobless claims, international trade, and BLS productivity/unit labor cost updates but numeric values were not available; at 09:00 ET Astronics filed an 8‑K with preliminary Q4 revenue $213–$215m, preliminary bookings $225–$230m, preliminary FY2025 revenue $795–$797m, and 2026 revenue guidance $850–$880m.
After Hours — At 16:05 ET WD‑40 reported fiscal Q1 net sales $153.5m (+5% y/y), net income $20.1m, diluted EPS $1.32 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS $1.39, with gross margin 55.5% and FY2026 non‑GAAP EPS guidance $5.40–$5.70 (GAAP EPS $5.25–$5.55) and net sales growth guidance 6%–10%, providing a clear earnings-and-guide signal for consumer staples and related equities.
Three Trades For Tomorrow
1/3 Short $TLT — If the 08:30 ET Employment Situation on 2026-01-09 shows nonfarm payrolls ≥ 150k and unemployment rate ≤ 4.60% (stronger than the cited +50k and 4.60% forecast), short TLT between 09:31–10:00 ET; target a -2% move in TLT from entry by the 1/9 cash close, with a stop-loss…
The Employment Situation directly affects Fed path repricing and the UST curve, with TLT as a liquid long-duration proxy. A materially stronger-than-forecast labor report (jobs well above +50k and unemployment no higher than 4.60%) should push rate expectations higher and pressure long-duration Treasuries, favoring a tactical short heading into the rest of the session.
Trade credibility: actionability 8.0 | timeliness 9.0 | clarity 8.0
2/3 Long $WDFC — On 2026-01-09, go long WDFC within the first 30 minutes after the open if shares open between -2% and +3% versus the 1/8 close; target a +4% gain from entry by the 1/9 cash close, with a stop-loss at -2% from entry or exit at the 1/9…
WD-40 reported Q1 net sales up 5% y/y to $153.5m, non-GAAP EPS of $1.39, and a 55.5% gross margin, alongside FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $5.40–$5.70 on 6%–10% sales growth. Solid growth, margins, and reaffirmed outlook support buying a controlled post-earnings dip or modest gap higher for a short-term re-rating.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0
3/3 Long $XHB — If the 08:30 ET 2026-01-09 housing release shows both housing starts and building permits rising versus their prior readings, go long XHB between 09:31–10:30 ET; target a +2% gain from entry by the 1/9 cash close, with a stop-loss at -1% from entry or exit at the…
Housing starts and building permits feed directly into growth and term-premium expectations and signal homebuilder activity. A simultaneous increase in both metrics would indicate improving housing momentum, which should support homebuilder sentiment and ETFs like XHB. A tight intraday long captures the immediate sentiment response while limiting downside via a small percentage stop.
Trade credibility: actionability 7.0 | timeliness 8.0 | clarity 7.0